| On the Ground|

China – Keeping the faith, but adjusting the view

10 May 2013 07:15 GMT Becky Liu , Lan Shen , Li Wei , Stephen Green

  • • We lower our GDP growth forecast to 7.7% for 2013 (from 8.3%), and to 7.5% for 2014 (from 8.2%) • We lower our CPI inflation forecast to 3.2% for 2013 (from 4%), and to 4.7% for 2014 (from 5%) • We maintain our call that interest rate hikes will start in Q4, but now expect three hikes instead of five • Credit growth should support near-term activity, though it raises questions about leverage, credit quality and growth sustainability in the next few years • Beijing is researching economic reforms; short-term stimulus is unlikely unless the employment situation deteriorates markedly
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