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  • Ghana – GHS bonds: Robust returns, high risk - Updated Mon May 18, 2015

    • Elevated carry and duration gains will likely result in robust GHS bond returns over the next 12 months • Local bonds could post decent unhedged USD returns despite significant FX tail risks • Foreign investors may need to be more comfortable ...

  • CNH CGB auction – Less supply amid more easing [Correction] - Updated Mon May 18, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 18 May 2015. Changes target level for 10Y CNH CGB trade to 3.1%. • China’s Ministry of Finance will issue CNY 28bn offshore bonds in 2015 – half this week and half in H2 • Issuance amount is lower than expected; n...

  • 18-May – MPC to focus on Nigeria FX decision - Updated Sun May 17, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – CPI likely to match flash at 0.0% y/y • UK – CPI inflation likely turned negative in April • Mexico – Banxico biding its time • Market focus • Nigeria MPC to announce monetary policy decision on Tuesday 19 May ...

  • Asia data previews – 15-22 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • The external sector likely weighed on Thailand’s Q1 GDP while supporting Japan’s Q1 GDP • We expect BI to cut the policy rate by 25bps in May and the BoJ to remain on hold • Inflation for April is likely to have edged lower in Hong Kong and acce...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-JPY buyers in April • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-KRW sellers • Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR • SC...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 8 – 14 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from clients, as per readership data, for the period from 8 to 14 May 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: Golden Eagle – Has all the bad news been priced in? On the Ground – Indone...

  • Cambodia – Riding the ‘China plus one’ wave - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    We recently visited Cambodia and met with public- and private-sector institutions • Cambodia is attracting international manufacturers seeking to diversify from China and other countries • Low labour costs, geographical advantage and pro-FDI polic...

  • China – Below-7% growth highly likely in Q2 - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    April data suggests the economy is not out of the woods yet; we forecast Q2 GDP growth at 6.7% y/y • PBoC may encourage policy lending, and rely more on RRR cuts to guide down the cost of funding • Fiscal policy has become more proactive; monetary...

  • SDR: One small step for China, one giant leap for CNY - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    Renminbi’s SDR inclusion is only a matter of time; we now see a 60% probability this year • Renminbi broadly meets SDR criteria; capital account liberalisation to accelerate sharply in 2015 • We expect a persistent rise in global diversification i...

  • USD – Paying Uncle Sam - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • Closing the tax loophole on foreign earnings is at the centre of the current US tax-reform debate • Obama’s tax proposal would result in limited tax revenue, but significant corporate repatriation to the US • In FX markets, the USD would be supp...

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Trade idea

22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...

In Media

Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.