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  • India: Reviving growth, brick by brick - Updated Fri April 11, 2014

    The following is a joint research report from the Regional and Equity Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content. • Growth needs to be the top priority for Indi...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • SC FIRST – High-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    • Direction and spread signals are both positive for the second consecutive month • Stay Positive on South Africa, but stay Neutral on Indonesia, due to valuations and fundamentals • Colombia should receive hefty bond inflows in the months to co...

  • COP – A strong house in a high-beta neighbourhood - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Colombia’s strong local growth story and robust capital-inflow outlook underpins our bullish COP view • We revise our end-Q2 USD-COP forecast to 1,900 (from 1,930) and keep end-Q3 at 1,870 • We stay Overweight the COP against the USD over both sho...

  • Global trade unbundled - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Expanding supply chains and increased openness drove rapid trade growth in past decades • But trade has been weak since the 2008-09 crisis; there is talk of a structural slowdown • We believe the outlook is improving and trade will soon grow fas...

  • 10-Apr – AXJ currency rally supported by yield-seeking - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Feb IIP set to disappoint at -0.4% y/y • GBP-CAD – Lowering the stop-loss on our short position • US – FOMC minutes downplay the hawkish ‘dots’ • Market focus • The stabilisation in UST yields and fall in US rate vo...

  • Sri Lanka – Debt dynamics - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Sri Lanka’s public and external-debt ratios are relatively high by emerging-market standards • LKR depreciation has been a major factor in keeping the public-debt ratio elevated • Cautious fiscal policy and a stable exchange rate could keep the ...

  • Close short THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Broad USD weakness, technicals and positioning could support the THB further near-term • Real-money funds are underweight Thai local markets; as they cover their shorts, THB could rally further • Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to...

  • 09-Apr – China – More stimulus needed - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate was likely 6.0% in March • Malaysia – External demand likely supported IP in February • UK – BoE may stay on hold while MPC digests flurry of positive data • Market focus • Policy is shifting ...

  • US − Not too hot, not too cold - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    We forecast 2014 US GDP growth of 2.4% • The Fed is on QE tapering auto pilot: the bar to altering its course is very high • We expect the first fed funds rate hike in Q2-2015 • Yields may break through 3% in the coming weeks, in our view, as m...

  • India – Hope builds, but delivery will be key - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    Opinion polls predict that NDA will come close to a majority, but they have been wrong before • Equities might be pricing in a positive result; INR has reacted less to unexpected results in the past • UPA and NDA manifestos have a few common them...

  • Asia – 2014: A milestone year - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    • We expect faster growth in most Asian economies in 2014 • Inflation pressure is manageable for now • Export growth should pick up and boost current accounts ...

  • 08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates steady - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI unaffected by FX volatility - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 6.8% y/y in February; strong momentum likely carried over to March, despite volatile CNY • Appointment of clearing banks in Europe will boost Renminbi usage; deposits in Taiwan keep growing • Higher CNY volatility will be the post band-...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    ETF: Gold outflows were the strongest in a month; PGM inflows as mining strikes continued • CFTC: Speculative commodity outflows continued after investment peaked on 11 March ...

  • China onshore rates – Higher supply, neutral liquidity - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Onshore CGB yields are likely to rebound in Q2 on higher supply and normalisation of liquidity • CGB curve is likely to bear flatten in Q2 before re-steepening in H2; 10Y yield to revisit last year’s high • 7D repo may settle at 4.0-4.5% on lower ...

  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • United States – Payrolls March to the same beat - Updated Fri April 4, 2014

    March payrolls merely returned to trend; the report may dash hopes of a spring V-shaped bounce • This report is consistent with ongoing steady tapering of the Fed QE programme; QE should end in Q4 • There is still-ample slack, and wage growth is a...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 28 March – 03 April 2014 - Updated Fri April 4, 2014

    • The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 28 March to 03 April 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • Global Focus - The world in transition • 2...

  • US prospective plantings – More than meets the eye - Updated Fri April 4, 2014

    US Department of Agriculture releases its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports • Sub-optimal weather and geopolitical risks could keep grain prices elevated, despite lower use • Longer-dated soybean futures are undervalued on a...



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17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.