• Elevated carry and duration gains will likely result in robust GHS bond returns over the next 12 months
• Local bonds could post decent unhedged USD returns despite significant FX tail risks
• Foreign investors may need to be more comfortable ...
This supersedes the version dated 18 May 2015. Changes target level for 10Y CNH CGB trade to 3.1%.
• China’s Ministry of Finance will issue CNY 28bn offshore bonds in 2015 – half this week and half in H2
• Issuance amount is lower than expected; n...
Top 3 data/events
• Euro area – CPI likely to match flash at 0.0% y/y
• UK – CPI inflation likely turned negative in April
• Mexico – Banxico biding its time
• Market focus
• Nigeria MPC to announce monetary policy decision on Tuesday 19 May
• The external sector likely weighed on Thailand’s Q1 GDP while supporting Japan’s Q1 GDP
• We expect BI to cut the policy rate by 25bps in May and the BoJ to remain on hold
• Inflation for April is likely to have edged lower in Hong Kong and acce...
• G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-JPY buyers in April
• Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-KRW sellers
• Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR
The following reports received the most reads from clients, as per readership data, for the period from 8 to 14 May 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads:
Golden Eagle – Has all the bad news been priced in?
On the Ground – Indone...
We recently visited Cambodia and met with public- and private-sector institutions
• Cambodia is attracting international manufacturers seeking to diversify from China and other countries
• Low labour costs, geographical advantage and pro-FDI polic...
April data suggests the economy is not out of the woods yet; we forecast Q2 GDP growth at 6.7% y/y
• PBoC may encourage policy lending, and rely more on RRR cuts to guide down the cost of funding
• Fiscal policy has become more proactive; monetary...
Renminbi’s SDR inclusion is only a matter of time; we now see a 60% probability this year
• Renminbi broadly meets SDR criteria; capital account liberalisation to accelerate sharply in 2015
• We expect a persistent rise in global diversification i...
• Closing the tax loophole on foreign earnings is at the centre of the current US tax-reform debate
• Obama’s tax proposal would result in limited tax revenue, but significant corporate repatriation to the US
• In FX markets, the USD would be supp...
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Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April
• Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales
• Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April
• Market focus
• EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...
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