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  • 19-Mar – Challenging the bear hug - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation begins to edge lower • New Zealand – Q4-2013 GDP likely reflected strong recovery momentum • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show an improving growth outlook • Market focus • Russia faces more sancti...

  • Sugar – Hot weather compels a rethink of supply - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    • Hot weather in Brazil is undermining potential cane and sugar output in 2014/15 • An El Niño weather event in the southern hemisphere will be bullish for prices in H2-2014 • We lower our H1-2014 price forecasts but maintain our bullish stance fo...

  • China – 375 clients talk wages in the PRD - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    • Our PRD manufacturer survey suggests wages will rise 9.2% in 2014, versus 8.4% in 2013 • Labour shortages continue; most clients plan to invest in equipment, but a growing minority will relocate • Productivity growth continues to keep pace with ...

  • United States – FOMC: Keeping guidance simple - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Another USD 10bn QE taper is on the cards at the 18-19 March Fed meeting; tapering is on auto-pilot • All eyes will be on the revamped forward guidance: We expect to see the end of explicit thresholds • The median FFTR projections could stay unch...

  • 18-Mar – The new BoK governor - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • UK – Labour-market slack is lessening • United States – Inflation to stay subdued; housing to edge up • Market focus • Ju-yeol Lee is likely to be confirmed as the new Ban...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold • CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...

  • Copper – An oversold market offers a chance to buy - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • 3-month LME copper breaks lower on a lack of confidence about China amid talk about financing deals • Market has overreacted to the possible outcome of unwinding, in our view; we do not see it happening • We maintain our full-year price foreca...

  • 17-Mar – FOMC: Jettisoning the thresholds - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine • Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10% • Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March • Market focus • Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...

  • PBoC delivers a decisive band widening - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    PBoC doubles width of USD-CNY onshore trading band to +/-2% in a decisive step to boost FX volatility Mild CNY appreciation is still likely medium-term, but the ‘one-way’ CNY trajectory is over Leveraged funds: We still like long 1Y ATMF USD-CN...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 10Y South African bonds - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals • Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling • Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 07 – 14 March 2014 - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    • The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 7 to 13 March 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • On the Ground - Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, big...

  • New RV signals for swaps: Receive HKD 1Y/3Y/5Y - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    • We update the signals from our RV model for swaps based on a PCA framework • New RV signals: Receive HKD 1Y/3Y/5Y • Of the 15 closed signals since we launched our RV model, 13 would have delivered profits, two losses ...

  • Canada – Going north, gradually - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    We revise up our forecast for Canada’s GDP growth to 2.2% y/y for 2014 • We now see inflation rising to 1.4% for 2014, 0.2ppt down from our prior estimate • We expect the BoC to hike its policy rate in Q4-2015, one quarter earlier than previously ...

  • 14-Mar – Asian fixed income outperforms CEMEA’s - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – February exports likely benefited from a low base • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained buoyant in January • China – Growth moderated, but official data complicates the reading • Market focus • Indon...

  • Brazil – Outlook and key themes for 2014 - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Economic indicators continue to disappoint. The latest figures show a poor performance for the third consecutive year. We expect 2014 to be similar. A weaker currency and a stronger global economy will likely boost external demand, while internal de...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • China – A faltering start to 2014 - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    IP growth was slower than market expectations, but official data exaggerates the slowdown  Real FAI growth remained unchanged from Q4-2013; retail sales growth is still healthy  We expect growth to revive in Q2 on easing policy; our annual GDP f...

  • Thermal coal – JPU annual contract price settlement - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    • The premium of annual contract prices over current-quarter average spot prices has declined recently • We believe this year’s premium will be squeezed, too, largely due to nuclear restarts • The JPU price may be settled below USD 80/t for the fi...

  • 13-Mar – IDR and THB rallies to stall near-term - Updated Wed March 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ minutes to shed more light on future policy stance • India – February WPI likely slipped below 5% • US – Retail sales likely picked up mildly as the weather improved • Market focus • We believe the IDR and TH...



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17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.