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  • Oil Notes – Dark-adapted eye - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    The supply and demand response to lower prices suggests a strong pace of oil-market adjustment • We expect global oil demand to grow by 1.4mb/d; non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow just 0.1mb/d • We expect Brent crude oil to average USD 76/bbl in ...

  • Asia data previews – 27 Feb – 6 Mar 2015 - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    • We expect the RBA and BNM to keep policy rates on hold; RBA may be a close call • Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines to release inflation data, with differing expectations • We see still-weak export growth in South Korea and Ma...

  • CNY – The real story on CNY weakness - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    China’s FX market has re-opened amid sustained onshore corporate demand for FX • The financial account has deteriorated abruptly, due mainly to trimming or hedging of FX liabilities • We examine onshore corporate flows and identify a powerful shif...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 20 – 26 February 2015 - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 20 to 26 February 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: CDI new issue - Moderate spread compression likely...

  • Nigeria – February BSI hits a series low - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    February BSI falls to a series low of 57.9 from 58.8 in January • Near-term political uncertainty and softer oil prices continue to weigh on the indicator • Falls in production and supplier delivery times indicate a slowdown in activity...

  • Kenya – February BSI: Losing momentum - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    Kenya’s BSI continued its correction in February • February BSI fell to a series low of 47.0, from 58.5 in January • Three-month BSI average is still above 50, indicating expansion...

  • China – SME index distorted by holiday effect - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January; expectations index improved Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday; job market deteriorated further Credit availability remains tight for SMEs; financing costs...

  • 27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher investment - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We ...

  • Hits and misses of the Indian budget - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • India will present the Union Budget on February 28. To analyse the budget and its market impact, we will hold two conference calls on Monday 02 March (05:00 GMT/10:30 AM Mumbai time and 14:00 GMT/09:00 AM New York time) with: Session 1: • Sami...

  • Asia – What Asian clients think - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views • Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists • Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...

  • 25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year of the Goat - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX marke...

  • Sri Lanka – No surprises from the CBSL - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    • The CBSL maintains the status quo on policy rates at its February meeting • While January inflation of 3.2% y/y was higher than our estimates, we expect inflation to remain benign • Private credit growth improved for the sixth straight month to ...

  • Asia – Breaking with the bearish view - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    After meeting clients around Asia and the US, we find the mood to be subdued but optimistic long-term • We are less bearish on China’s growth prospects due to property- and debt-related factors • Confusion reigns over monetary policy reaction fun...

  • Malaysia – Fading growth momentum - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    We expect Malaysia’s growth to slow to 5% in 2015 (2014: 6%) We factor in a potential slowdown, but 5% is still close to its long-term average growth rate We think the C/A will face headwinds; we expect a surplus of only 2.5% of GDP in 2015 (previ...

  • Singapore – Budget for the future - Updated Mon February 23, 2015

    • The FY15 budget focuses on long-term economic development and strengthening social support • New initiatives such as SkillsFuture aim to deepen and broaden the labour-force’s skill set • The budget increases personal tax rates for high-income ...

  • Commodity Investor Flows - Updated Mon February 23, 2015

    • Focus: Nickel was in surplus in 2014; however, we expect the market to move into deficit in 2015 • Further rig-count falls reinforce our view that US shale oil output growth will disappear in April • ICSG data shows copper concentrate market de...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 13 – 19 February 2015 - Updated Mon February 23, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 13 to 19 February 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: Macro Strategy Views – Herding yield Weekly fund ...

  • CFA franc zone – A weaker EUR is good news - Updated Mon February 23, 2015

    We update our CFA franc barometer and find little pressure for devaluation at the moment • EUR weakness will likely provide a welcome boost to competitiveness in the franc zone • We think this is sufficient to quell debate over the merits of depeg...

  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...



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30-Mar – Euro area is gaining momentum

Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely dropped during the Lunar New Year holiday • Thailand – Rising tourism income may have boosted C/A surplus • US – Soft core PCE inflation to keep September hike on track • Market focus • The euro area recovery is gaining momentum • Low energy...

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Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.