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  • China – Far from unconventional policies - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    With growth trending down, we expect a four-pronged policy response to mitigate downside risk • Talk of QE and LTRO seems far-fetched; CNY devaluation does not appear to be an option • We call for a 25bps rate cut by end-June, followed by a total ...

  • Hong Kong – SME sentiment turns cautious again - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Our SME sentiment tracker dips back into pessimistic territory in Q2 amid weaker sales expectations • Record-high hiring expectations are a lone bright spot; investment expectations weakest since Q4-2012 • External headwinds continue to weigh on m...

  • Korea – Swap points outlook - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Swap points are likely to remain range-bound in Q2 and tighten in H2 given BoK’s less dovish stance from the lagged effect of previous rate cuts • We expect the swap point to reach their tightest levels by Q4-2016 but are unlikely to hit the zero b...

  • Indian clients see opportunities and risks - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Onshore clients are optimistic on India’s long-term prospects for growth and market performance • Short-term caution reflects concerns over exogenous risks and the impact on external capital • Locals fear that global investors may lose patience wi...

  • China – Not out of the woods yet - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    April PMI suggests weak demand and further deceleration in economic activity • Money growth may have rebounded on the RRR cuts and a sizeable trade surplus • Inflation likely edged up but remained subdued, leaving room for more policy easing...

  • Take profit on short USD-CNH 3Mx12M trade - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    We recommend taking profit on the short USD-CNH 3Mx12M trade • We see risk of rebound in spread near-term on firmer USD-CNH spot, news of May SDR meeting deferral • We maintain short- and medium-term Overweight FX weightings on the CNY...

  • 04-May – Not too early or late, just right for RBA - Updated Sun May 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Real GDP growth likely remained weak in Q1-2015 • Philippines – Inflation may moderate further on lower food inflation • US – Services to do most of heavy lifting in Q2 • Market focus • RBA will likely ease agai...

  • SC FIRST – Investor confidence in EM is rising - Updated Fri May 1, 2015

    Capital flows surged to EM after the 18 March FOMC meeting and should continue to flow • We are bullish Thai and Malaysian bonds, where underweight positions are being covered • Recent rise in euro-area bond yields is a concern for EM rates, bu...

  • CLP – We move to Overweight from Neutral - Updated Fri May 1, 2015

    We are bullish on copper prices, forecasting USD 6,675/t in Q4-2015 and 7,250/t in 2016 • Standard Chartered MFCI for Chile points to higher growth, suggesting BCCh will hike from Q4 • We revise our short-term FX weighting on the CLP to Overweigh...

  • Euro area – Will Greece stall the euro-area recovery? - Updated Fri May 1, 2015

    Markets are largely shrugging aside the risks of a Greek default and ‘Grexit’ • Euro area has had a strong start to 2015, but uncertainty has risen, threatening to slow the recovery • A Greek deal needs to be reached this month if a ‘Grexit’-relat...

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29-May – Korea – Mixed data and policy...

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation may have picked up in April • China – Manufacturing sector likely continued to face difficulty • Brazil – BCB likely to keep 50bps tightening pace in 3 June meeting • Market focus • Korea’s upcoming economic data releases are likely to be...

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