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  • Zambia takes action to defend the currency [CORRECTION] - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    • This supersedes the version dated 21 March 2014. Page 1, third paragraph, corrects the policy rate. • Bank of Zambia tightens policy further, raising rate on overnight lending facility with immediate effect • Earlier regulation suspending FX b...

  • Sri Lanka – CBSL on an extended pause - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    2013 GDP surprises on the upside, and inflation continues to fall, justifying CBSL’s status quo on rates • Q4 GDP increase in contrast to weakness in proxy growth indicators • No change likely in policy rate until Q3-2014 the earliest • The T-...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 14 – 20 March 2014 - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 14 to 20 March 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • United States – FOMC rate hike: The seeds are sown ...

  • 21-Mar – Divergence in the dollar bloc - Updated Thu March 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Inflation likely remained modest in February • Taiwan – Industrial production to show recovery gaining momentum • Euro area – Geopolitical tensions may bruise PMIs • Market focus • NZD outperforms due to a str...

  • Oil – Running in the shadows - Updated Thu March 20, 2014

    • il-price volatility is likely to rise on the basis of limited supply buffers and increased supply risks • e present our 2014 and 2015 oil balances, showing strong demand and strong North American supply • e adjust our price forecasts for 2014,...

  • Moderate impact on Asian bonds from GBI-EM re-weighting - Updated Thu March 20, 2014

    • Colombia’s increased weighting in the GBI-EM will push Thailand’s and Indonesia’s weightings lower • Any asset-allocation shift should be gradual; impact on IDR bonds should be higher than on THB bonds • We take profit on our long THB 10Y positi...

  • United States – FOMC rate hike: The seeds are sown - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Blaming recent weaker data on the weather, Yellen sees the first hike ‘six months’ after the end of QE • FOMC projections show a steeper rate-hiking cycle ahead; optimism about the outlook prevails • As we expected, the explicit thresholds were dr...

  • UK – Drink, build and be merry, for tomorrow we save - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Policy makers see the UK’s recovery broadening out beyond consumption and housing activity • The OBR has revised down its forecast of spare capacity: slack could be eliminated faster than expected • There will be tax give-aways over the next year...

  • 20-Mar – Colombia's gain is other EMs' pain - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Further heavy corporate FX selling in February • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain on an uptrend • Mexico – Our MFCI still shows tight monetary conditions • Market focus • Colombia’s weight in EM bond indices w...

  • PKR rallies on aid inflows, but no change in FX policy - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • USD-PKR has rallied 10% to 99 since end-2013 on FX aid flows, improving sentiment • However, fundamentals are weak - the trade deficit is widening, FX reserves are below comfort levels • Short-term gains to persist; we forecast PKR at 98 by Ju...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...

  • 19-Mar – Challenging the bear hug - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation begins to edge lower • New Zealand – Q4-2013 GDP likely reflected strong recovery momentum • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show an improving growth outlook • Market focus • Russia faces more sancti...

  • Sugar – Hot weather compels a rethink of supply - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    • Hot weather in Brazil is undermining potential cane and sugar output in 2014/15 • An El Niño weather event in the southern hemisphere will be bullish for prices in H2-2014 • We lower our H1-2014 price forecasts but maintain our bullish stance fo...

  • China – 375 clients talk wages in the PRD - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    • Our PRD manufacturer survey suggests wages will rise 9.2% in 2014, versus 8.4% in 2013 • Labour shortages continue; most clients plan to invest in equipment, but a growing minority will relocate • Productivity growth continues to keep pace with ...

  • United States – FOMC: Keeping guidance simple - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Another USD 10bn QE taper is on the cards at the 18-19 March Fed meeting; tapering is on auto-pilot • All eyes will be on the revamped forward guidance: We expect to see the end of explicit thresholds • The median FFTR projections could stay unch...

  • 18-Mar – The new BoK governor - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • UK – Labour-market slack is lessening • United States – Inflation to stay subdued; housing to edge up • Market focus • Ju-yeol Lee is likely to be confirmed as the new Ban...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold • CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...

  • Copper – An oversold market offers a chance to buy - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • 3-month LME copper breaks lower on a lack of confidence about China amid talk about financing deals • Market has overreacted to the possible outcome of unwinding, in our view; we do not see it happening • We maintain our full-year price foreca...

  • 17-Mar – FOMC: Jettisoning the thresholds - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine • Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10% • Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March • Market focus • Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...

  • PBoC delivers a decisive band widening - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    PBoC doubles width of USD-CNY onshore trading band to +/-2% in a decisive step to boost FX volatility Mild CNY appreciation is still likely medium-term, but the ‘one-way’ CNY trajectory is over Leveraged funds: We still like long 1Y ATMF USD-CN...



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17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.