With growth trending down, we expect a four-pronged policy response to mitigate downside risk
• Talk of QE and LTRO seems far-fetched; CNY devaluation does not appear to be an option
• We call for a 25bps rate cut by end-June, followed by a total ...
Our SME sentiment tracker dips back into pessimistic territory in Q2 amid weaker sales expectations
• Record-high hiring expectations are a lone bright spot; investment expectations weakest since Q4-2012
• External headwinds continue to weigh on m...
Swap points are likely to remain range-bound in Q2 and tighten in H2 given BoK’s less dovish stance from the lagged effect of previous rate cuts
• We expect the swap point to reach their tightest levels by Q4-2016 but are unlikely to hit the zero b...
Onshore clients are optimistic on India’s long-term prospects for growth and market performance
• Short-term caution reflects concerns over exogenous risks and the impact on external capital
• Locals fear that global investors may lose patience wi...
April PMI suggests weak demand and further deceleration in economic activity
• Money growth may have rebounded on the RRR cuts and a sizeable trade surplus
• Inflation likely edged up but remained subdued, leaving room for more policy easing...
We recommend taking profit on the short USD-CNH 3Mx12M trade
• We see risk of rebound in spread near-term on firmer USD-CNH spot, news of May SDR meeting deferral
• We maintain short- and medium-term Overweight FX weightings on the CNY...
Top 3 data/events
• Indonesia – Real GDP growth likely remained weak in Q1-2015
• Philippines – Inflation may moderate further on lower food inflation
• US – Services to do most of heavy lifting in Q2
• Market focus
• RBA will likely ease agai...
Capital flows surged to EM after the 18 March FOMC meeting and should continue to flow
• We are bullish Thai and Malaysian bonds, where underweight positions are being covered
• Recent rise in euro-area bond yields is a concern for EM rates, bu...
We are bullish on copper prices, forecasting USD 6,675/t in Q4-2015 and 7,250/t in 2016
• Standard Chartered MFCI for Chile points to higher growth, suggesting BCCh will hike from Q4
• We revise our short-term FX weighting on the CLP to Overweigh...
Markets are largely shrugging aside the risks of a Greek default and ‘Grexit’
• Euro area has had a strong start to 2015, but uncertainty has risen, threatening to slow the recovery
• A Greek deal needs to be reached this month if a ‘Grexit’-relat...
If this is a public computer please consider checking this box carefully.
Please access our research via your Straight2Bank account
Top 3 data/events
• Indonesia – Inflation may have picked up in April
• China – Manufacturing sector likely continued to face difficulty
• Brazil – BCB likely to keep 50bps tightening pace in 3 June meeting
• Market focus
• Korea’s upcoming economic data releases are likely to be...
Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.
About Standard Chartered
Group investor relations
Group media centre
WB media centre
Copyright © 2015 Standard Chartered Bank