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  • Thailand – What Thai clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Client sentiment in Bangkok is firmer in 2015 than 2014 • Europe is the biggest concern for 2015, while concerns about Thailand have eased • Thai clients maintain a bearish view on the Thai baht...

  • Korea structured notes – IRS curve to flatten - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    We expect structured note issuance to increase marginally in H1-2015 • Dual-currency and zero-coupon products are preferable in a low-yield, flat-curve environment • The IRS 2Y/10Y curve is likely to flatten further on rate-cut expectations and st...

  • 03-Feb – Asia: At least inflation is benign - Updated Mon February 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January PMI to reflect sluggish manufacturing momentum • Taiwan – January inflation to slow significantly due to lower oil prices • UK – Composite PMI likely improved marginally • Market focus • Growth sentimen...

  • Euro area – Debt restructuring: The view from Athens - Updated Mon February 2, 2015

    There is a gap between what Greece wants and what its euro-area partners are willing to concede • Athens proposes debt restructuring, including ECB-held Greek Government Bonds (GGBs) • ‘Grexit’ looks unlikely, but the risk is not negligible, esp...

  • Africa – Turning point in Ebola outbreak - Updated Mon February 2, 2015

    • The incidence of new Ebola cases has declined • The human, social and economic costs are severe in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone • The impact on the rest of Africa, including the economic cost, has been more limited ...

  • Japan – More QQE is likely in 2015 - Updated Mon February 2, 2015

    We expect BoJ to expand QQE as early as April on increased risk to meeting its 2% inflation target • We lower our 2015 and 2016 headline inflation forecasts to 0.5% and 1.4%, respectively • Governor Kuroda appears to have tried to extend the time...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 23 – 29 January 2015 - Updated Mon February 2, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 23 to 29 January 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: Standard Chartered Alert Note – Singapore – MAS cut...

  • 02-Feb – India: RBI likely to cut rates - Updated Sun February 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia − RBA likely to revert to a dovish stance, without cutting rates • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up moderately in January • US – ISM likely moderated on global headwinds, oil price rout • Market focus ...

  • United States – Still-firm growth, still-soft wages - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    US ‘big picture’ remains unchanged: Activity is firm, but wage growth and inflation are lacklustre • This data will likely support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance; we see no rate hike before at least September • Q4 GDP details are unfavourable for Q...

  • Asia data previews – 30 Jan-6 Feb 2015 - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    China’s manufacturing PMI likely to improve but stay weak; Lunar New Year timing helps • We expect India’s RBI to ease rates by another 25bps, contrary to market expectations • Australia’s RBA is likely to revert to a dovish stance, but keep its p...

  • Sri Lanka – Upholding pre-election promises - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    • Interim 2015 budget focuses on lowering cost of living; commitment to fiscal consolidation remains • Government expenditure shifts towards recurrent spending; public investment targets cut • New taxes introduced on the corporate sector and wealt...

  • Nigeria – January 2015 BSI falls sharply - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    Business sentiment fell to 58.8 in January, after reaching a series-high in December • All five components that make up the headline BSI fell in January, reflecting challenging conditions • However, 21 out of the total 31 indicators remain above t...

  • China – SME Index: Sentiment is mixed in January - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    The SME index rebounded slightly to 56.6 in January from 55.5 in December; current sentiment is weak Demand indicators remain weak and deflationary pressure persists; credit conditions improve IT sector outperforms others; overall business conditi...

  • Kenya – January BSI: Still-strong growth trends - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Kenya’s BSI Index corrected in January after a strong holiday season • January BSI fell to 58.5 from a series high of 69.1 in December • Seasonal effects aside, the trend is favourable; three-month BSI continues to trend higher...

  • 30-Jan – Beware Greeks bearing tail-risks - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have fallen in January • South Korea – January exports boosted by more working days • Thailand – Inflation was likely subdued in January on falling oil prices • Market focus • Signs of inv...

  • SC FIRST – Better off in EM in 2015 - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Current investor behaviour supports EM bonds, based on SC FIRST data on EM flows and positioning • Foreign holdings recovered in January after dipping in December; structural demand for EM continues • Indonesia stood out as the big positive story ...

  • Australia – Dovish RBA expected, but no rate cuts - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    The RBA is likely to revert to a dovish stance, explicitly acknowledging the possibility of further rate cuts • However, we maintain our view that the RBA will not cut the cash rate further • We expect further weakness in the AUD, with the central...

  • Pay SGD 2Y IRS vs SGS 2Y on MAS’ surprise move - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    The MAS’ surprise easing should lead to higher momentum in the SOR • We expect the SGD 2Y IRS to move higher and the IRS curve to flatten • We recommend entering the 2Y swap spread widener – pay SGD 2Y IRS vs buy SGS 2Y...

  • South Korea – What Korean clients think - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Korean clients have turned much more bearish on business prospects and the economic outlook in 2015 • Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies • More than 70% of respondents expect the KRW to weaken vs. USD in 201...

  • Philippines – Strong rebound in GDP growth - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    GDP growth accelerated to 6.9% y/y in Q4-2014 from 5.3% in Q3; q/q SA growth was 2.5% • We expect robust GDP growth to continue throughout 2015, with risks to the upside • USD-PHP is supported by positive fundamentals, and could continue to outper...



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27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher...

Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We expect the government to adhere to the...

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Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.