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  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • Hong Kong – SMEs remain cautiously optimistic - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    Our survey shows that SMEs are less optimistic on Q2-2014 than they were a quarter ago • The 50.8 reading is still consistent with business expansion; margin concerns have re-emerged • All three major industry sub-indices are above 51.0, boding we...

  • Sri Lanka – Maintaining the status quo on rates - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    The Central Bank of Sri Lanka kept policy rates unchanged at its 22 April meeting • Upside risks to inflation increase the likelihood that it will keep rates on hold for longer • Private credit growth continues to slow, while external sector perfo...

  • Sri Lanka – Weather woes - Updated Mon April 21, 2014

    Sri Lanka’s rice harvest will likely be affected by the ongoing drought • Food inflation should rise significantly during the summer; we expect some impact in the winter, too • If the El Niño effect materialises, headline inflation could rise to...

  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • Turkey trip notes – Before and after elections - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    • Despite differences of opinion, the AKP election victory is viewed as conducive to stability • The political roadmap may be clearer, but this does not rule out more market-moving political noise • We reaffirm our GDP growth call of 2.2% for 201...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 11 – 16 April 2014 - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    • The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 11 to 16 April 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows •...

  • China – The expanding credit universe and the deleveraging challenge - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    This slide pack shows what is happening with credit in China today • We show how WMPs work, how offshore borrowing is rising and how best to measure credit growth • Phase one of deleveraging – slower credit growth – has begun; we outline the next ...

  • 17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1 - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y...

  • China – Q1 was weak; Q2 will likely be weaker - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • China’s official Q1 GDP grew 7.4%, slightly outperforming market expectations • Growth in credit and housing sales, the key leading indicators, is decelerating • We adjust down our CPI inflation forecast for 2014 to 2.3% from 3.3% • Stimulus me...

  • IGB valuations are attractive; buy 5Y IGBs - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    We believe recent pessimism on the IGB market is overdone • Improving INR outlook, near-term supply and stable policy rates are key positives for IGBs • We shift our IGB outlook to Positive from Neutral; buy 5Y IGBs at 8.95%; target: 8.65%, stop-l...

  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • India – Be cautious not worried about inflation - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    March WPI surprises on the upside, CPI prints in line with expectations • CPI and WPI trajectory still looks comfortable for most of 2014, barring any weather-related shocks • We cautiously maintain our FY15 CPI forecast at 8% with a downward bia...

  • 15-Apr – Draghi puts EUR strength in the crosshairs - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth momentum likely softened in Q1 • Euro area – CPI final print likely to match the preliminary data • US – Yellen to clarify view on long-run inflation, growth and FFTR • Market focus • Draghi’s IMF comments c...

  • Singapore – MAS sees rising domestic inflation - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged; policy unchanged since Apr-12 • MAS maintains focus on upside pressure on core inflation, reduces headline inflation forecast • SGD NEER should weaken 0.5% in the coming three mont...

  • Japan trip notes – Domestic issues matter the most - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Local sentiment continues to improve, but caution remains on the reform outlook • China’s slower growth is negatively affecting Japan’s economy, but not substantially • We are more concerned about progress on domestic reforms, which will determin...

  • 14-Apr – AXJ FX revisions amid divergent volatility - Updated Sun April 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Inflation likely moved up in March • Germany – ZEW may show investors shrugging off uncertainties • US – Not necessarily a spring rebound for core retail sales • Market focus • Weaker China data and reviving bond i...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 04 – 10 April 2014 - Updated Fri April 11, 2014

    • The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 04 to 10 April 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • Economics Weekly - 04-Apr - China: Can it be stab...

  • India: Reviving growth, brick by brick - Updated Fri April 11, 2014

    The following is a joint research report from the Regional and Equity Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content. • Growth needs to be the top priority for Indi...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...



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17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.