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  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 22 – 28 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 29, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 22 to 28 May 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: Special Report – India – Modi’s first year: Targeting r...

  • China – Setback in May for SMEs - Updated Fri May 29, 2015

    The SME index fell to 58.2 in May, the second consecutive decline, on weaker current performance The pick-up in activity after the Lunar New Year lost steam on weak demand and destocking Credit conditions remain decent, but funding costs fell only...

  • Asia data previews – 29 May-5 June 2015 - Updated Fri May 29, 2015

    We expect RBI to cut policy rate by 25bps, and RBA to pause after cutting in May • Inflationary pressure is building in Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea; we expect negative prints in Taiwan, Thailand • Exports from Malaysia and South Korea ...

  • 29-May – Korea – Mixed data and policy uncertainty - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation may have picked up in April • China – Manufacturing sector likely continued to face difficulty • Brazil – BCB likely to keep 50bps tightening pace in 3 June meeting • Market focus • Korea’s upcoming ...

  • Global supply chains: New directions - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    • The role of global supply chains (GSCs) in the global trade boom • Challenges to further GSC expansion • Reasons why we expect GSCs to continue to grow • The increasing role of services and horizontal trade in GSCs • Q&A ...

  • Nigeria – Hopes centre on democracy dividend - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    Standard Chartered-MNI Business Sentiment Indicator rose 0.7% m/m to 61.4 in May • Current conditions were constrained by FX concerns and bank credit availability • However, expectations were more optimistic, reflecting an anticipated democracy di...

  • Philippines – BSP remains neutral despite slowdown - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    GDP growth slowed to 5.2% y/y in Q1 (6.6% in Q4-2014); q/q growth was the slowest since Q1-2009 • BSP remains neutral, but is likely to turn dovish if inflation eases more than we expect • We expect inflation to slow further in Q2 and Q3 on base e...

  • Kenya – Future expectations faltered in May - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    BSI was unchanged in May at 66.9, still consistent with robust growth • However, future expectations softened, as 13 of 15 indicators fell • May production rose and stayed close to series-highs, but new orders and export orders were down • CBK me...

  • 28-May – US surprise indices may have troughed - Updated Wed May 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated in May • FX – We raise USD-LKR and lower USD-BDT forecasts • Japan – Core inflation likely remained 0%; IP may have edged up • Market focus • Second Q1 GDP print may be a painful rem...

  • Global supply chains: New directions - Updated Wed May 27, 2015

    • Global supply chains (GSCs) have transformed trade and the world economy in the last 30 years. We argue they will continue to expand, though more slowly than before, and could significantly boost productivity. But patterns will likely change. • R...

  • Singapore – Range-bound growth ahead - Updated Wed May 27, 2015

    Economy is on track to meet the government’s target of 2-4% growth this year • Net exports were helped by lower oil prices; we expect a reversal of the +9.1ppt contribution • Improvement in domestic demand may reverse as private consumption and i...

  • 27-May – BoC: A believer in better times ahead - Updated Tue May 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained healthy in Q1 • Hong Kong – Still too early to confirm an export recovery • Euro area – Economic sentiment likely deteriorated • Market focus • At its 27 May meeting, we see the BoC ...

  • Saudi Arabia – Market opening and volatility - Updated Tue May 26, 2015

    Saudi Arabia’s stock market opens up to foreign investors from 15 June • We expect a gradual pick-up in inflows; the real ‘game changer’ would be MSCI-EM inclusion (likely 2017) • We lower our 2015 current account and fiscal balance forecasts for ...

  • 26 May – India – Modi’s first year: Targeting reforms - Updated Mon May 25, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – April monitoring indicators index likely remained in ‘yellow-blue’ zone • Japan – Retail sales likely improved m/m in April • Korea – We expect April IP to have improved • Market focus • India’s government has take...

  • Bangladesh – Fiscal deficit may widen in FY16 - Updated Mon May 25, 2015

    FY16 budget likely to have expansionary bias; fiscal deficit may widen on investment revival • FY15 fiscal deficit could surprise positively on sharp cuts to non-development expenditure • We have a Positive outlook on T-bonds; widening fiscal defi...

  • 25-May – Greece begs to differ - Updated Sun May 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - Manufacturing sector likely remained lacklustre in April • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed on stronger export growth • US – April a temporary hiatus in an otherwise weak durables trend • Market focus ...

  • Europe – In conversation with US clients - Updated Fri May 22, 2015

    • US clients are mostly doubtful that Europe can sustain stronger growth • At the same time, they are uncertain that the ECB will persist with QE, unless Grexit fears are realised • Looking at the UK after the election, the focus is increasingly...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 15 – 21 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 22, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 15 to 21 May 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: On the Ground – Vedanta – All eyes on oil and refinanci...

  • Asia data previews – 24-29 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 22, 2015

    Inflation was likely muted across Asia in April; we expect April IP to have rebounded in Japan and Korea • India FY15 GDP may be lower than expected at 7.4% y/y despite first quarterly C/A surplus in five years • Likely strong Q1 GDP growth and e...

  • 22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates - Updated Thu May 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread w...



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29-May – Korea – Mixed data and policy...

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation may have picked up in April • China – Manufacturing sector likely continued to face difficulty • Brazil – BCB likely to keep 50bps tightening pace in 3 June meeting • Market focus • Korea’s upcoming economic data releases are likely to be...

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Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.