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  • Global trade unbundled - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Expanding supply chains and increased openness drove rapid trade growth in past decades • But trade has been weak since the 2008-09 crisis; there is talk of a structural slowdown • We believe the outlook is improving and trade will soon grow fas...

  • 04-Mar – Spill-over from the Ukraine crisis - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q4 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to hold the policy rate at 1% • Chile – Getting ahead of the curve • Market focus • Asia, Africa and the Middle East have li...

  • 20-Feb – Fed QE taper on auto pilot - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Steady inflation continues • Brazil – All eyes on January’s balance of payments data • Chile – What lies beneath • Market focus • January’s minutes show that the bar to pause Fed QE tapering remains very high ...

  • 16-Jan – Upside risks to Thailand’s inflation - Updated Wed January 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX likely improved further in December • Chile – Rates on hold, but an easing bias • United States – Inflation remains subdued; Fed rate hike still distant • Market focus • We see upside risks to Thailand’s in...

  • 12-Dec – China’s on/offshore liquidity contrast - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Retail sales likely contracted at a slower pace in October • US – Robust auto sales likely boosted holiday retail sales • Latam – A busy day across the region on Thursday • Market focus • Central Economic Work ...

  • Estimating EM local fund beta - Updated Fri November 1, 2013

    • We previously analysed aggregate foreign positioning in local currency in SC FIRST, assessed our own data sources for a more accurate fund-flow analysis, and generated insights on foreign-investor heterogeneity • We can now generate insights on d...

  • 08-Feb-13 – What Korean corporates think - Updated Thu February 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Lower GDP estimate ahead of easing supply supports GoISecs • Chile – Low January CPI should temper BCCh’s hawkish tone • United States – Trade deficit likely narrowed after November’s surge • Market focus • Korean ...

  • 17-Jan-13 – China’s recovery is taking shape - Updated Wed January 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Official concern about KRW volatility rather than level • Chile – BCCh on hold, but more constructive on growth • US – Philly Fed survey to show marginal improvement • Market focus • We forecast a rebound in C...

  • Latin American FX update - Updated Tue October 2, 2012

    We recently revised our Latam FX forecasts in the wake of the Fed’s QE3 policy announcement • While QE has historically been positive for Latam currencies, we observe clear diminishing returns • Regional central banks will fight USD weakness, exc...

  • 12-Sep-2012 – Asian central bank meetings - Updated Tue September 11, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Switzerland – SNB to maintain 3M LIBOR target range, 1.20 FX barrier • The Netherlands – Election: centrist parties leading in opinion polls • Chile – No change is likely from BCCh as the economy shows resilience • Market fo...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.