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  • 25-Apr – Banxico, BanRep dovish in their own ways - Updated Thu April 24, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • EM bonds – Impact of ELMI+ rebalancing should be limited • Japan – Retail sales likely continued to accelerate m/m in March • Taiwan – Leading index likely to show stronger growth in Q1 • Market focus • We expect Ba...

  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and NGN - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Asia: In March, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY, SGD, INR; USD buyers vs. HKD, THB, CNH • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. INR, KRW, CNY; long USD positioning is large vs. IDR, CNH • Africa: SCTF Position Index shows clients are...

  • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    We stay Neutral on Indonesian rates risk; we examine one of the positive external influences • New data shows a strong link between Russian, Turkish outflows and Indonesian inflows in Q1-2014 • The benefits for Indonesia, which we expect to conti...

  • SC FIRST – High-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    • Direction and spread signals are both positive for the second consecutive month • Stay Positive on South Africa, but stay Neutral on Indonesia, due to valuations and fundamentals • Colombia should receive hefty bond inflows in the months to co...

  • 26-Mar – In the steady hands of the CBC - Updated Tue March 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Bad weather likely weighed on February data • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep policy unchanged in March • South Africa – MPC seen on hold at March meeting; risks are building • Market focus • Expect the CBC to k...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 10Y South African bonds - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals • Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling • Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...

  • 28-Feb – Manageable inflation in Asia - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely maintained a positive but weak signal • South Korea – Trade expected to have increased in February • China – Manufacturing sector likely saw a mild expansion in February • Market focus • Asia will se...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for PHP - Updated Fri February 21, 2014

    • In January, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; large USD buyers vs. IDR, TWD, CNH • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and CNY; buyers of USD vs. CNH, TWD and PHP • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR and ...

  • SC FIRST – Neutral on EM bonds; stay long 10Y THB - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    Our directional signal for EM bonds has turned neutral for the first time since October 2013 • Foreign holdings of EM bonds are stabilising; EM bond funds redemptions/outflows remain negative • Our EM/DM spread signal is neutral; foreign investors...

  • Asian demand/supply outlook; buy 10Y THB bonds - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    Demand and supply dynamics are less favourable in 2014 than 2013 due to risk of foreign selling • IDR and MYR bonds vulnerable to foreign selling, as non-residents bought 30% of net supply in 2013 • On supply, PHP bonds stand out with net supply u...

  • SC FIRST – Improving sentiment towards INR bonds - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    Foreign mutual funds are selling EM bonds, but foreign structural investors are still buying • Mexican and Indian markets are being bought: we maintain our Positive local bond outlook on INR bonds • We now track local and foreign positions in Nige...

  • Taiwan – Picking up the pace in 2014 - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    • We expect GDP growth to rebound to 3.9% y/y in 2014 from 2.2% in 2013 • We expect inflation to rise to 1.7% y/y in 2014 from 0.8% in 2013 • Policy makers are likely to keep the benchmark rate on hold in March, resume hikes in June 2014 • We rai...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal on KRW, bullish on TWD - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    In December, our clients were large USD sellers vs. INR and KRW; large USD buyers vs. IDR, HKD, PHP • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and KRW; buyers of USD vs. PHP, HKD, IDR and THB • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR ...

  • Asian FX PCA – RV in focus on mixed global IP cycle - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle • Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off • Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...

  • NEA-SEA divergence to increase, USD to strengthen - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    We expect NEA to outperform, SEA to underperform on Fed tapering due to C/A, cyclicality of investors • USD should rally against SEA, commodity currencies, JPY and CHF; EUR and GBP should hold up better • Asian bond yields should peak in Q1; INR...

  • SC FIRST – EM/DM bond spreads to remain wide - Updated Mon December 16, 2013

    Foreigners are sellers of THB, TRY, ZAR and KRW bonds; buyers of IDR and MXN bonds • Our carry-sensitivity indicator reaches new lows; EM/DM bond spreads to remain wide • Foreign holdings of EM bonds are flat, suggesting that sovereign investors ...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Fri December 13, 2013

    In November, our clients were large USD sellers vs. KRW and INR; large USD buyers vs. CNH and THB • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. KRW and PHP; buyers of USD vs. TWD, HKD and IDR • Short USD positioning is large vs. PHP, KRW and TWD...

  • Rates outlook and strategy 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    • EM rates should have an inflexion point around tapering; EM bearish into tapering, followed by recovery • Our total-return analysis identifies Indonesia, India and Brazil as the favourites for 2014 • Pre-tapering: Bond investors should buy 3Y KT...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.