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  • SC FIRST – Position risk drives EM flow - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    Factors driving global markets are reflected in the latest positioning data from SC FIRST • Flows to EM local bond markets have improved somewhat but are far from positive • Malaysia remains in favour relative to Indonesia and Thailand...

  • 22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates - Updated Thu May 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread w...

  • 13-May – Malaysia’s growth likely remained resilient - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – We expect the April trade deficit to have narrowed • Philippines – We expect no change in BSP’s policy rate decision • US – April consumer spending may show continued torpor • Market focus • We expect GDP growth to ...

  • Revisiting our Asian LCY bond-market views - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    Global bond-market sell-off has affected Asian bond markets, albeit unevenly • We still like 5Y THB and MYR bonds; we widen the stop-loss level on our long 5Y THB bond trade • We remain Positive on IGBs and shift to long 5Y IGBs from long 10Y IGBs...

  • 05-May – BNM is likely to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • BoJ minutes to shed light on Kiuchi’s proposal • New Zealand – Unemployment rate likely fell to 5.5% • US – Before payrolls, markets likely to listen carefully to Chair Yellen • Market focus • BNM is likely to keep the poli...

  • SC FIRST – Investor confidence in EM is rising - Updated Fri May 1, 2015

    Capital flows surged to EM after the 18 March FOMC meeting and should continue to flow • We are bullish Thai and Malaysian bonds, where underweight positions are being covered • Recent rise in euro-area bond yields is a concern for EM rates, bu...

  • Taiwan – CBC to keep rates on hold in 2015 - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    • Data indicates continued economic recovery; strong industrial data offset weak export growth in Feb-Mar • We lower our 2015 inflation forecast to 0.4% y/y (from 0.8%) and raise our 2016 forecast to 1.8% (1.4%) • We think the CBC will keep the po...

  • Pan-Asia rates – Supported by low DM bond yields - Updated Mon April 27, 2015

    • Our three key macro themes – disinflation, policy divergence and currency wars – are still at play • While the EM/DM real yield differential has narrowed and is no longer very attractive, we see scope for further narrowing given low or negative b...

  • Malaysia – Short-covering flows benefit MGS - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    MGS demand is supported by liquidity conditions, foreign sentiment and disinflationary pressure • We take profit of 26bps on our receive MYR 5Y IRS recommendation • We recommend going long 5Y MGS; entry: 3.65%, target: 3.45%, stop-loss: 3.75%...

  • 23-Mar – CBC and BSP likely to stay neutral - Updated Sun March 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP and March data likely to show steady growth • UK – CPI likely eased further in February • US – Tepid core inflation to support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance • Market focus • CBC is likely to keep policy rat...



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22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...

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