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  • 23-Mar – CBC and BSP likely to stay neutral - Updated Sun March 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP and March data likely to show steady growth • UK – CPI likely eased further in February • US – Tepid core inflation to support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance • Market focus • CBC is likely to keep policy rat...

  • SC FIRST – Caution over, as Fed not impatient to hike - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    Foreign investor sentiment towards emerging markets has improved after the 18 March FOMC meeting EM funds remain overweight duration and still favour Indonesia, but are returning to Malaysia EM/DM yield spread to be range-bound as foreign investor...

  • Malaysia – A pause means a lot - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    We present takeaways from BNM’s annual report briefing and our meetings with local investors • We think a policy rate move is unlikely in the near term, although we do not rule it out completely • Positive onshore sentiment towards the rates mark...

  • 04-Mar – BNM policy stance supports receiving rates - Updated Tue March 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Retail and external trade likely contracted in October • UK – Bank of England will likely keep interest rates unchanged • Euro area – ECB will likely revise growth up and inflation down • Market focus • BNM is l...

  • SCTF – Corporates turn net USD sellers versus THB - Updated Fri February 13, 2015

    G10: Corporate clients turned net sellers of USD-JPY in January • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net sellers of USD-THB and USD-TWD • Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are very short USD-ZM...

  • Taiwan – Upbeat on Q1 growth despite slow Q4 - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    Preliminary Q4 GDP growth slowed y/y; we remain upbeat on Q1 growth, however • Inflation risk is receding due to falling oil prices; we expect policy rate to stay on hold at 1.875% in March • TWD FX: We recommend Underweight short- and medium-te...

  • Malaysia – HQLA move supports receiving rates - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    BNM is relaxing HQLA restrictions to loosen banking liquidity • The change provides leeway to banks with relatively small amounts of HQLAs to meet LCR requirements • Liquidity easing and global disinflationary pressure support our receive 5Y MYR I...

  • 06-Feb – Malaysia shows resilience - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – New GDP series likely to show slower economic activity in FY15 • Japan – Current account balance was likely positive in December 2014 • Taiwan – Trade surplus was likely boosted by a lower (oil) import bill • Marke...

  • Taiwan – Take profit on pay 5Y bond swap spread - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Low inflation and ample liquidity underpin demand for 5Y TGBs • Impact on long-end TGB demand to be exacerbated as more global corporates issue Formosa bonds • We close our 5Y trade; take 14bps profit – current: 25bps, entry: 11bps, target: 25bp...

  • SC FIRST – Better off in EM in 2015 - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Current investor behaviour supports EM bonds, based on SC FIRST data on EM flows and positioning • Foreign holdings recovered in January after dipping in December; structural demand for EM continues • Indonesia stood out as the big positive story ...



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23-Mar – CBC and BSP likely to stay neutral

Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP and March data likely to show steady growth • UK – CPI likely eased further in February • US – Tepid core inflation to support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance • Market focus • CBC is likely to keep policy rates unchanged and maintain a pro-growth...

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