• Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising
• Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures
• External debt has risen in recent years, but ...
• The slow rebalancing of an oversupplied market is the key reason for depressed prices
• Governments are fine-tuning regulations amid the weak price environment
• Seasonal winter demand will likely provide a temporary boost to prices; we recommen...
• Overview - With growth indicators moderating, even in the US, we may see further volatility in Q2 before a more sustained global recovery in H2. We recommend corporates use CNH rather than CNY NDFs for longer-dated CNY/CNH exposure, as well as foc...
• The new set of locks should be completed by 2015, and is a USD 5.25bn infrastructure project
• The third set of locks will accommodate post-Panamax tankers, ships that can hold up to 13,000 TEU
• Shipping companies, ports in North and South Amer...
Overview – The year ahead should see stronger growth, boosting higher-beta assets and currencies, but the path will not be linear. We expect volatility in H1 before a more self-sustaining recovery in H2. We recommend Asian exporters maintain neutral...
Top 3 data/events
• China – Appreciation in CNY fixes is likely temporary
• Commodities – Grain prices to rally after US crop harvest
• Taiwan – Export orders are rising due to year-end seasonal demand
• Market focus
• We expect investors to ...
• Macro outlook
• FX outlook
• Rates outlook
• Commodities outlook
• Corporate strategy
• Central bank strategy...
We assess the potential inflationary impact of the recent spike in grain prices on Asia and Africa
• Given the time lag, Asian inflation is likely to rise only in early 2013 if the grain-price spike is sustained
• Fiscal and administrative measur...
• Electricity as a proxy for industrial activity may have some problems
• We suggest apparent demand for gasoil/diesel as an alternative proxy for tracking economic activity
• An industrial slowdown is clear; so far, consumption growth appears st...
This supersedes the version dated 14 June 2012. Amends price forecasts in Figures 35 and 36.
• Coal price downtrend will start in 2013, in our view, underpinned by a supply glut
• This view is in stark contrast to our previous bullish view on coa...
• Demographics present both a challenge and an opportunity
• Oil sector drives growth and enables investment
• Diversification into the non-oil business is the answer for the 5mn jobs needed by 2025
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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