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  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Thermal coal – A slow rebalancing of fundamentals - Updated Fri July 5, 2013

    • The slow rebalancing of an oversupplied market is the key reason for depressed prices • Governments are fine-tuning regulations amid the weak price environment • Seasonal winter demand will likely provide a temporary boost to prices; we recommen...

  • Q2 – Is it safe? - Updated Mon April 15, 2013

    • Overview - With growth indicators moderating, even in the US, we may see further volatility in Q2 before a more sustained global recovery in H2. We recommend corporates use CNH rather than CNY NDFs for longer-dated CNY/CNH exposure, as well as foc...

  • Panama – The Canal unleashes its new locks - Updated Fri March 1, 2013

    • The new set of locks should be completed by 2015, and is a USD 5.25bn infrastructure project • The third set of locks will accommodate post-Panamax tankers, ships that can hold up to 13,000 TEU • Shipping companies, ports in North and South Amer...

  • Q1 – Flows versus fundamentals - Updated Thu January 24, 2013

    Overview – The year ahead should see stronger growth, boosting higher-beta assets and currencies, but the path will not be linear. We expect volatility in H1 before a more self-sustaining recovery in H2. We recommend Asian exporters maintain neutral...

  • 18-Oct-2012 – In search of carry after QE3 - Updated Wed October 17, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Appreciation in CNY fixes is likely temporary • Commodities – Grain prices to rally after US crop harvest • Taiwan – Export orders are rising due to year-end seasonal demand • Market focus • We expect investors to ...

  • Q4 – Diversification - Updated Mon October 8, 2012

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodities outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • Asia and Africa – Another round of food inflation? - Updated Tue August 14, 2012

    We assess the potential inflationary impact of the recent spike in grain prices on Asia and Africa • Given the time lag, Asian inflation is likely to rise only in early 2013 if the grain-price spike is sustained • Fiscal and administrative measur...

  • Q3 – Catching the turn - Updated Wed July 11, 2012

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodities outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • China – Then the electricity ran out … - Updated Mon July 9, 2012

    • Electricity as a proxy for industrial activity may have some problems • We suggest apparent demand for gasoil/diesel as an alternative proxy for tracking economic activity • An industrial slowdown is clear; so far, consumption growth appears st...

  • Coal – Thermal coal is catching a cold [CORRECTION] - Updated Fri June 15, 2012

    This supersedes the version dated 14 June 2012. Amends price forecasts in Figures 35 and 36. • Coal price downtrend will start in 2013, in our view, underpinned by a supply glut • This view is in stark contrast to our previous bullish view on coa...

  • Saudi Arabia – Putting oil to good use - Updated Wed May 23, 2012

    • Demographics present both a challenge and an opportunity • Oil sector drives growth and enables investment • Diversification into the non-oil business is the answer for the 5mn jobs needed by 2025 ...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.