• Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising
• Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures
• External debt has risen in recent years, but ...
• The slow rebalancing of an oversupplied market is the key reason for depressed prices
• Governments are fine-tuning regulations amid the weak price environment
• Seasonal winter demand will likely provide a temporary boost to prices; we recommen...
• Overview - With growth indicators moderating, even in the US, we may see further volatility in Q2 before a more sustained global recovery in H2. We recommend corporates use CNH rather than CNY NDFs for longer-dated CNY/CNH exposure, as well as foc...
• The new set of locks should be completed by 2015, and is a USD 5.25bn infrastructure project
• The third set of locks will accommodate post-Panamax tankers, ships that can hold up to 13,000 TEU
• Shipping companies, ports in North and South Amer...
Overview – The year ahead should see stronger growth, boosting higher-beta assets and currencies, but the path will not be linear. We expect volatility in H1 before a more self-sustaining recovery in H2. We recommend Asian exporters maintain neutral...
Top 3 data/events
• China – Appreciation in CNY fixes is likely temporary
• Commodities – Grain prices to rally after US crop harvest
• Taiwan – Export orders are rising due to year-end seasonal demand
• Market focus
• We expect investors to ...
• Macro outlook
• FX outlook
• Rates outlook
• Commodities outlook
• Corporate strategy
• Central bank strategy...
We assess the potential inflationary impact of the recent spike in grain prices on Asia and Africa
• Given the time lag, Asian inflation is likely to rise only in early 2013 if the grain-price spike is sustained
• Fiscal and administrative measur...
• Electricity as a proxy for industrial activity may have some problems
• We suggest apparent demand for gasoil/diesel as an alternative proxy for tracking economic activity
• An industrial slowdown is clear; so far, consumption growth appears st...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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