• Fewer corporates expect growth to accelerate in 2014 from the pace seen in 2013
• Sustaining revenue growth is corporates’ main concern, far outweighing worries over rising costs
• Corporates are bearish on the SGD vs. USD; looking to partly hed...
QE3 is unlikely in July and better data by September should keep the Fed on hold
• A ‘fiscal cliff’ could trigger QE in 2013, but a ‘fiscal slope’ will not
• Currency – An unexpected dose of QE3 would be USD-negative, but other factors are at play...
Top 3 data/events
• Japan – Weak retail sales in June likely amid growing deflation risk
• Taiwan – Leading indicators index to reflect weak external demand
• United States – We cautiously look for a durable goods rise
• Market focus
• Greek exit risk, contagion and China’s slowdown underpin near-term USD-AXJ views and forecasts
• We raise our USD-INR and USD-IDR forecasts, while we no longer expect net CNY appreciation in 2012
• Ample global liquidity and China stimulus shou...
• China data expected to show inflation and growth moderating in May
• South Korea and Australia likely to leave interest rates on hold
• We expect rate cuts in Uganda and Kenya
• European Central Bank could leave a window open for future action...
It now looks more likely than not that Greece will exit EMU
• We revise our G10 FX forecasts, having conducted forecast distribution and scenario analysis
• Leveraged funds: We recommend that leveraged funds buy 3M EUR-JPY 97/92 put spreads
IMM positioning to 15 May shows net USD longs rising to four-year highs of USD 28.52bn
• EUR-USD non-commercial account net shorts hit a new record high
• Weekly findings confirm bearish short-term flow signals for EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD...
• Elections in France, Greece, Germany and Italy add to uncertainty
• Rising European unemployment is raising the political temperature
• UK needs more QE soon, but the BoE will likely wait another month
• China’s economy still on track to troug...
• G20 will discuss boosting IMF funds as euro-area stresses return
• FOMC, Bernanke press conference, Q1-2012 GDP in focus in the US
• BoJ set to expand its asset-purchase programme
• The French presidential election kicks off a series of euro-a...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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