• Fewer corporates expect growth to accelerate in 2014 from the pace seen in 2013
• Sustaining revenue growth is corporates’ main concern, far outweighing worries over rising costs
• Corporates are bearish on the SGD vs. USD; looking to partly hed...
QE3 is unlikely in July and better data by September should keep the Fed on hold
• A ‘fiscal cliff’ could trigger QE in 2013, but a ‘fiscal slope’ will not
• Currency – An unexpected dose of QE3 would be USD-negative, but other factors are at play...
Top 3 data/events
• Japan – Weak retail sales in June likely amid growing deflation risk
• Taiwan – Leading indicators index to reflect weak external demand
• United States – We cautiously look for a durable goods rise
• Market focus
• Greek exit risk, contagion and China’s slowdown underpin near-term USD-AXJ views and forecasts
• We raise our USD-INR and USD-IDR forecasts, while we no longer expect net CNY appreciation in 2012
• Ample global liquidity and China stimulus shou...
• China data expected to show inflation and growth moderating in May
• South Korea and Australia likely to leave interest rates on hold
• We expect rate cuts in Uganda and Kenya
• European Central Bank could leave a window open for future action...
It now looks more likely than not that Greece will exit EMU
• We revise our G10 FX forecasts, having conducted forecast distribution and scenario analysis
• Leveraged funds: We recommend that leveraged funds buy 3M EUR-JPY 97/92 put spreads
IMM positioning to 15 May shows net USD longs rising to four-year highs of USD 28.52bn
• EUR-USD non-commercial account net shorts hit a new record high
• Weekly findings confirm bearish short-term flow signals for EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD...
• Elections in France, Greece, Germany and Italy add to uncertainty
• Rising European unemployment is raising the political temperature
• UK needs more QE soon, but the BoE will likely wait another month
• China’s economy still on track to troug...
• G20 will discuss boosting IMF funds as euro-area stresses return
• FOMC, Bernanke press conference, Q1-2012 GDP in focus in the US
• BoJ set to expand its asset-purchase programme
• The French presidential election kicks off a series of euro-a...
• Economic data from Asia, Europe and US to show mediocre growth
• Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut rates by 25bps on 17 April
• German sentiment data to soften; Spain’s bond sale is in focus
• S. Africa inflation to see temporary dip; r...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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