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  • Offshore Renminbi – Another year of progress ahead - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53% • We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation • Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...

  • CNY – Onwards and upwards to end-2014 - Updated Thu November 27, 2014

    • China’s deposit rate cut does not affect our CNY outlook • CNY fixings have shown a bias towards CNY strength, which should support the CNY into year-end • Maintain short and medium term Overweight FX weighting on the CNY; stay short USD-CNH 6M ...

  • 14-Nov – Abenomics put to a vote? [Correction] - Updated Fri November 14, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table. • Top 3 data/events • Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum • Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month • United States ...

  • CNH market faces short-term liquidity stress - Updated Mon November 10, 2014

    • Stock Connect, CGB auction and pan-China two-way sweeping further tighten CNH liquidity near-term • But CNH rates are likely near their peak as onshore-offshore rates have largely converged • We recommend lengthening duration of CNH CGBs and out...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Seoul and Paris join the RGI - Updated Tue October 7, 2014

    RGI now includes Seoul and Paris, reflecting their contribution to Renminbi deposits and payment flows • Excluding the new centres, August was a slow month for the RGI amid lingering China macro concerns • Paris is well placed to enjoy recent pol...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Slow but steady - Updated Mon September 8, 2014

    RGI growth remains slow; we expect better growth in Q4 on rebound in sentiment • Cross-border Renminbi payments rose in July, although the Renminbi’s share of China trade dropped • We revise down our forecast for Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to ...

  • 18-Aug – Waiting for Jackson Hole [Correction] - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item. • Top 3 data/events • China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July • UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July • US – We expect a moderate reco...

  • Offshore RMB – A pragmatic view from onshore - Updated Thu August 7, 2014

    • RGI m/m growth was the slowest in 20 months, reflecting lingering negative effects from prior months • Survey shows little rebound in CNH activity; onshore companies are increasing usage • Shanghai FTZ is off to a good start; many respondents ar...

  • 07-Jul – Commodities: Rise of the fundamentals - Updated Sun July 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation pressure remains muted • Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May • United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May Market focus • Positioning for uneven and slug...



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