• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
• China’s deposit rate cut does not affect our CNY outlook
• CNY fixings have shown a bias towards CNY strength, which should support the CNY into year-end
• Maintain short and medium term Overweight FX weighting on the CNY; stay short USD-CNH 6M ...
This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table.
• Top 3 data/events
• Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum
• Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month
• United States ...
• Stock Connect, CGB auction and pan-China two-way sweeping further tighten CNH liquidity near-term
• But CNH rates are likely near their peak as onshore-offshore rates have largely converged
• We recommend lengthening duration of CNH CGBs and out...
RGI now includes Seoul and Paris, reflecting their contribution to Renminbi deposits and payment flows
• Excluding the new centres, August was a slow month for the RGI amid lingering China macro concerns
• Paris is well placed to enjoy recent pol...
RGI growth remains slow; we expect better growth in Q4 on rebound in sentiment
• Cross-border Renminbi payments rose in July, although the Renminbi’s share of China trade dropped
• We revise down our forecast for Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to ...
This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item.
• Top 3 data/events
• China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July
• UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July
• US – We expect a moderate reco...
• RGI m/m growth was the slowest in 20 months, reflecting lingering negative effects from prior months
• Survey shows little rebound in CNH activity; onshore companies are increasing usage
• Shanghai FTZ is off to a good start; many respondents ar...
Top 3 data/events
• China – Inflation pressure remains muted
• Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May
• United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May
• Positioning for uneven and slug...
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