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  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Another year of progress ahead - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53% • We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation • Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...

  • CNY – Onwards and upwards to end-2014 - Updated Thu November 27, 2014

    • China’s deposit rate cut does not affect our CNY outlook • CNY fixings have shown a bias towards CNY strength, which should support the CNY into year-end • Maintain short and medium term Overweight FX weighting on the CNY; stay short USD-CNH 6M ...

  • 14-Nov – Abenomics put to a vote? [Correction] - Updated Fri November 14, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table. • Top 3 data/events • Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum • Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month • United States ...

  • CNH market faces short-term liquidity stress - Updated Mon November 10, 2014

    • Stock Connect, CGB auction and pan-China two-way sweeping further tighten CNH liquidity near-term • But CNH rates are likely near their peak as onshore-offshore rates have largely converged • We recommend lengthening duration of CNH CGBs and out...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Seoul and Paris join the RGI - Updated Tue October 7, 2014

    RGI now includes Seoul and Paris, reflecting their contribution to Renminbi deposits and payment flows • Excluding the new centres, August was a slow month for the RGI amid lingering China macro concerns • Paris is well placed to enjoy recent pol...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Slow but steady - Updated Mon September 8, 2014

    RGI growth remains slow; we expect better growth in Q4 on rebound in sentiment • Cross-border Renminbi payments rose in July, although the Renminbi’s share of China trade dropped • We revise down our forecast for Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to ...

  • 18-Aug – Waiting for Jackson Hole [Correction] - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item. • Top 3 data/events • China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July • UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July • US – We expect a moderate reco...

  • Offshore RMB – A pragmatic view from onshore - Updated Thu August 7, 2014

    • RGI m/m growth was the slowest in 20 months, reflecting lingering negative effects from prior months • Survey shows little rebound in CNH activity; onshore companies are increasing usage • Shanghai FTZ is off to a good start; many respondents ar...

  • 07-Jul – Commodities: Rise of the fundamentals - Updated Sun July 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation pressure remains muted • Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May • United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May Market focus • Positioning for uneven and slug...

  • 20-Jun – Revising our GBP-USD forecasts - Updated Thu June 19, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Europe – New clearing banks set to boost RMB internationalisation • Taiwan – May IP, job data likely shows a recovery in growth momentum • Singapore – May inflation likely supported by private transport costs • Market focu...

  • 19-Jun – The Fed: And now back to the World Cup - Updated Wed June 18, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation may remain high on supply-side factors • Taiwan – Recovery in global demand likely supported orders data • Euro area – Consumer confidence should keep improving • Market focus • QE was tapered a furt...

  • 18-Jun – More scope for RBI intervention - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q1 GDP growth likely rose to 1.1% q/q • Philippines – BSP likely to keep rates steady at its June meeting • Switzerland – SNB expected to stay the course • Market focus • The RBI has intervened substant...

  • The Morning Call 17-Jun – Oil spillover in Asia - Updated Mon June 16, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Japan – May exports likely slowed; BoJ minutes unlikely to surprise • Thailand – BoT’s easing cycle is likely over • US – Housing starts likely edged lower; CPI may have continued rising • Market focus • Growth impact...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

  • Offshore RMB – Survey says momentum to continue - Updated Tue January 7, 2014

    • The RGI rose 6.1% m/m in November, mainly driven by strong deposit and cross-border payment growth • Survey shows strong growth potential for CNH usage by mainland corporates across trade, FX and loans • Corporates need to become more proactive ...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – All-round support for the RGI - Updated Mon December 9, 2013

    Rising offshore deposits fuel RGI growth; Renminbisation in Hong Kong is happening but is not a threat • UK’s launch of Renminbi clearing cements its position as leading offshore Renminbi centre in the West • We expect the Renminbi to be a G4 curr...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI to get a further policy boost - Updated Thu November 7, 2013

    RGI re-accelerated in September, up 3.0% m/m to 1,183, thanks to another strong deposit performance • Policy breakthrough should provide impetus for faster growth in European market after a strong Q3 • Mainland issuers, led by the Ministry of Fina...



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