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  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and NGN - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Asia: In March, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY, SGD, INR; USD buyers vs. HKD, THB, CNH • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. INR, KRW, CNY; long USD positioning is large vs. IDR, CNH • Africa: SCTF Position Index shows clients are...

  • PBoC delivers a decisive band widening - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    PBoC doubles width of USD-CNY onshore trading band to +/-2% in a decisive step to boost FX volatility Mild CNY appreciation is still likely medium-term, but the ‘one-way’ CNY trajectory is over Leveraged funds: We still like long 1Y ATMF USD-CN...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

  • CNY – Delivering on two-way volatility - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    CNY and CNH start 2014 on a firm note amid favourable seasonals and persistent onshore net USD sales • Q2 will likely bring a widening of the onshore trading band and more two-way volatility • We revise down our USD-CNY and USD-CNH forecasts out ...

  • Offshore RMB – Survey says momentum to continue - Updated Tue January 7, 2014

    • The RGI rose 6.1% m/m in November, mainly driven by strong deposit and cross-border payment growth • Survey shows strong growth potential for CNH usage by mainland corporates across trade, FX and loans • Corporates need to become more proactive ...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – All-round support for the RGI - Updated Mon December 9, 2013

    Rising offshore deposits fuel RGI growth; Renminbisation in Hong Kong is happening but is not a threat • UK’s launch of Renminbi clearing cements its position as leading offshore Renminbi centre in the West • We expect the Renminbi to be a G4 curr...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI to get a further policy boost - Updated Thu November 7, 2013

    RGI re-accelerated in September, up 3.0% m/m to 1,183, thanks to another strong deposit performance • Policy breakthrough should provide impetus for faster growth in European market after a strong Q3 • Mainland issuers, led by the Ministry of Fina...

  • The Renminbi’s 2020 odyssey - Updated Mon November 4, 2013

    In this issue of The Renminbi Insider, we look ahead to 2020 and explain the currency’s likely odyssey across the trade, FX and the rates space. We expect 28% of China’s international trade to be denominated in Renminbi by 2020, some USD 3tn a year....

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR, USD-PHP - Updated Fri October 11, 2013

    In September, our clients were large USD sellers vs. PHP, TWD and INR; large USD buyers vs. IDR • Our custodian clients were large sellers of USD versus PHP and TWD; substantial buyers of USD-IDR • Short USD positioning is now substantial vs. PHP,...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Survey says RGI to reaccelerate - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    RGI’s rise moderated in August to 1.8% m/m; strong deposit growth across centres is a bright spot • Survey suggests that CNH growth is picking up again, although Dim Sum issuers remain cautious • We added new survey questions to understand which f...

  • SCTF – Positioning risks reduced in THB and MYR - Updated Fri September 13, 2013

    In August, our clients were sellers of USD versus KRW, CNY, INR; buyers of USD versus THB, IDR, PHP • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD versus KRW; substantial buyers of USD versus THB and PHP • Short USD positioning is now substantial ver...

  • Asian FX PCA – AXJ to rally in Q4 on growth - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4 • We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies • We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Taiwan joins the RGI - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We add Taiwan to our RGI, in recognition of its rapid emergence as a key offshore Renminbi centre • Taiwan has plenty of room to grow, building on its early success in Renminbi deposit accumulation • Our RGI hit 1,112 in July, up 65% y/y, reflect...

  • 08-Aug – Fade the yen rally - Updated Wed August 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Weak demand likely weighed on growth • Australia – RBA likely to lower growth forecasts in quarterly statement • CNH – Our RGI continues to climb, despite a challenging backdrop • Market focus • Government’s fiscal ...

  • 15-Jul – Remain negative on EM bonds - Updated Sun July 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – July minutes might provide insights into further moves • CNH – CNH discount at end-2013, premium to re-emerge in H2-2014 • US – Consumer spending likely resisted fiscal headwinds • Market focus • Directional si...

  • CNH – The RGI breaks 1,000! - Updated Mon July 8, 2013

    The RGI reached a landmark level in May; strong cross-border payment flows were a big contributor • Our third CNH corporate survey confirms a mild RGI slowdown in store; underlying market drivers intact • We also interviewed 120 Asian investors th...

  • 25-Jun – USTs still adjusting to Fed’s expectations - Updated Mon June 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP likely maintained a modest expansion • CNH – Upcoming auction expected to attract foreign central banks • Germany – Strong consumer confidence, but headwinds remain • Market focus • UST market upset by the Fe...

  • Sell USD-CNY 5M NDF vs. existing USD-CNH long - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    USD-CNH forwards edge up on spot rebound and broad US dollar strength, favouring our USD long • Retreat in CNY’s trade-weighted value on the JPY rebound moderates case for higher USD-CNY fixes • Selling USD-CNY NDF 5M against our existing USD...

  • Signalling more pain for EM near-term - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain • The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows • In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.