China’s FX market has re-opened amid sustained onshore corporate demand for FX
• The financial account has deteriorated abruptly, due mainly to trimming or hedging of FX liabilities
• We examine onshore corporate flows and identify a powerful shif...
• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
This supersedes the version dated 9 January 2015. On page 12, amends CNH forecasts.
• AXJ currencies were resilient in 2014 – good for investors but not so favourable for AXJ exporters
• The oil-price slide will help external imbalances, but furth...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
• Gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value set to stall amid subdued growth and less favourable seasonals
• We revise upward our USD-CNY forecast profile while still projecting a mild CNY rebound in H2
• We lower our short-term FX weighting on the ...
CNY may weaken mildly near-term, despite the lack of a depreciating signal from the fix
• Tightness in both onshore and offshore liquidity likely to persist, keeping forward points elevated
• We close our short USD-CNH 6M DF position and look for ...
• China’s deposit rate cut does not affect our CNY outlook
• CNY fixings have shown a bias towards CNY strength, which should support the CNY into year-end
• Maintain short and medium term Overweight FX weighting on the CNY; stay short USD-CNH 6M ...
Northbound flows hit daily limit on the first day, draining 1.2% of Hong Kong’s total Renminbi deposits
• Technical factors support stronger northbound flows than southbound during the initial period
• Near-term impact is tighter liquidity; net de...
This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table.
• Top 3 data/events
• Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum
• Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month
• United States ...
USD-CNY NDF points are steep, may move lower into year-end on gradual CNY spot and fix appreciation
Seasonal factors, China’s external balance and internationalisation ambitions are constructive for CNY
Leveraged funds that are long USD-CNY 6M NDF...
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