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  • CNY – The real story on CNY weakness - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    China’s FX market has re-opened amid sustained onshore corporate demand for FX • The financial account has deteriorated abruptly, due mainly to trimming or hedging of FX liabilities • We examine onshore corporate flows and identify a powerful shif...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Another year of progress ahead - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53% • We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation • Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...

  • Cross-currents – Relative value in Asia [Correction] - Updated Fri January 9, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 9 January 2015. On page 12, amends CNH forecasts. • AXJ currencies were resilient in 2014 – good for investors but not so favourable for AXJ exporters • The oil-price slide will help external imbalances, but furth...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...

  • CNY – A new focus on trade-weighted stability - Updated Tue January 6, 2015

    • Gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value set to stall amid subdued growth and less favourable seasonals • We revise upward our USD-CNY forecast profile while still projecting a mild CNY rebound in H2 • We lower our short-term FX weighting on the ...

  • Close short USD-CNH DF - Updated Fri December 19, 2014

    CNY may weaken mildly near-term, despite the lack of a depreciating signal from the fix • Tightness in both onshore and offshore liquidity likely to persist, keeping forward points elevated • We close our short USD-CNH 6M DF position and look for ...

  • CNY – Onwards and upwards to end-2014 - Updated Thu November 27, 2014

    • China’s deposit rate cut does not affect our CNY outlook • CNY fixings have shown a bias towards CNY strength, which should support the CNY into year-end • Maintain short and medium term Overweight FX weighting on the CNY; stay short USD-CNH 6M ...

  • Day one of Stock Connect and the impact on liquidity - Updated Mon November 17, 2014

    Northbound flows hit daily limit on the first day, draining 1.2% of Hong Kong’s total Renminbi deposits • Technical factors support stronger northbound flows than southbound during the initial period • Near-term impact is tighter liquidity; net de...

  • 14-Nov – Abenomics put to a vote? [Correction] - Updated Fri November 14, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table. • Top 3 data/events • Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum • Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month • United States ...

  • Close USD-CNY NDF long in CNH-CNY forward trade - Updated Thu November 13, 2014

    USD-CNY NDF points are steep, may move lower into year-end on gradual CNY spot and fix appreciation Seasonal factors, China’s external balance and internationalisation ambitions are constructive for CNY Leveraged funds that are long USD-CNY 6M NDF...



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