• G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-CAD sellers in March
• Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-IDR buyers
• Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR
We recommend selling USD-CNH 3Mx12M outright in the FX Trading Portfolio
We expect stability in USD-CNY near-term as authorities calm depreciation worries ahead of IMF meeting
We recommend being Neutral on the CNY against the USD in AXJ regional F...
Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call
• USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility
• We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...
China’s FX market has re-opened amid sustained onshore corporate demand for FX
• The financial account has deteriorated abruptly, due mainly to trimming or hedging of FX liabilities
• We examine onshore corporate flows and identify a powerful shif...
• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
This supersedes the version dated 9 January 2015. On page 12, amends CNH forecasts.
• AXJ currencies were resilient in 2014 – good for investors but not so favourable for AXJ exporters
• The oil-price slide will help external imbalances, but furth...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
• Gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value set to stall amid subdued growth and less favourable seasonals
• We revise upward our USD-CNY forecast profile while still projecting a mild CNY rebound in H2
• We lower our short-term FX weighting on the ...
CNY may weaken mildly near-term, despite the lack of a depreciating signal from the fix
• Tightness in both onshore and offshore liquidity likely to persist, keeping forward points elevated
• We close our short USD-CNH 6M DF position and look for ...
• China’s deposit rate cut does not affect our CNY outlook
• CNY fixings have shown a bias towards CNY strength, which should support the CNY into year-end
• Maintain short and medium term Overweight FX weighting on the CNY; stay short USD-CNH 6M ...
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