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  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and NGN - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Asia: In March, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY, SGD, INR; USD buyers vs. HKD, THB, CNH • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. INR, KRW, CNY; long USD positioning is large vs. IDR, CNH • Africa: SCTF Position Index shows clients are...

  • KRW – Underpinned by ‘under-conversion’ - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Korea’s substantial current account surpluses have been fully recycled by capital account deficits • Under-conversion of overseas FX receivables may be a source of KRW demand going forward • Growth-inflation mix is broadly neutral for USD-KRW, b...

  • 17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1 - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y...

  • JPY – A gathering storm - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • We highlight increasing downside risks to USD-JPY in the near term; expect a pick-up in JPY volatility • The Bank of Japan appears comfortably sidelined for now even as domestic data hits a soft patch • We revise our short-term USD-JPY forecas...

  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • 15-Apr – Draghi puts EUR strength in the crosshairs - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth momentum likely softened in Q1 • Euro area – CPI final print likely to match the preliminary data • US – Yellen to clarify view on long-run inflation, growth and FFTR • Market focus • Draghi’s IMF comments c...

  • Singapore – MAS sees rising domestic inflation - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged; policy unchanged since Apr-12 • MAS maintains focus on upside pressure on core inflation, reduces headline inflation forecast • SGD NEER should weaken 0.5% in the coming three mont...

  • 14-Apr – AXJ FX revisions amid divergent volatility - Updated Sun April 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Inflation likely moved up in March • Germany – ZEW may show investors shrugging off uncertainties • US – Not necessarily a spring rebound for core retail sales • Market focus • Weaker China data and reviving bond i...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • COP – A strong house in a high-beta neighbourhood - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Colombia’s strong local growth story and robust capital-inflow outlook underpins our bullish COP view • We revise our end-Q2 USD-COP forecast to 1,900 (from 1,930) and keep end-Q3 at 1,870 • We stay Overweight the COP against the USD over both sho...

  • 10-Apr – AXJ currency rally supported by yield-seeking - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Feb IIP set to disappoint at -0.4% y/y • GBP-CAD – Lowering the stop-loss on our short position • US – FOMC minutes downplay the hawkish ‘dots’ • Market focus • The stabilisation in UST yields and fall in US rate vo...

  • Close short THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Broad USD weakness, technicals and positioning could support the THB further near-term • Real-money funds are underweight Thai local markets; as they cover their shorts, THB could rally further • Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to...

  • 09-Apr – China – More stimulus needed - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate was likely 6.0% in March • Malaysia – External demand likely supported IP in February • UK – BoE may stay on hold while MPC digests flurry of positive data • Market focus • Policy is shifting ...

  • 08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates steady - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • 04-Apr – March US NFPs: Gradual thawing - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • INR – RBI’s Rajan signals INR not far from ‘fair value’ • Taiwan – Export gains; inflation accelerates • Germany – Cooling industrial production data reflect stability • Market focus • We see March payrolls below the 20...

  • Buy AUD-NZD - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    • AUD-NZD looks set for a sharp corrective rebound as shifting terms of trade catch the market long NZD • Most NZD good news is priced in; AUD shorts are vulnerable to the improving Australian trade balance • We recommend buying AUD-NZD via 3M f...



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Trade idea

17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.