FX market stability is the immediate focus; RBI provides incentives for banks to raise more USDs
• Containing inflation will remain a priority; increased transparency in monetary policy stressed
• Financial-market reform and deepening financial m...
Finance minister expects USD 11bn of incremental inflows in FY14 once new measures are implemented
• Fresh inflows should help the external sector, but limited details on these measures keep us cautious
• We stay Neutral on the INR and expect a sh...
• Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...
Top 3 data/events
• Philippines – BSP is likely to keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2012
• Euro area – Chancellor Merkel to outline her stance ahead of the G20 meeting
• US – We forecast weaker-than-consensus May retail sales
• Market foc...
Top 3 key data/events
• South Korea – Industrial production likely rose 1.0% m/m in April
• Philippines – Resilient Q1 GDP
• Brazil – COPOM in cutting mode, for now
• India’s Q4-FY12 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0%, the weakest si...
Top 3 data/events
• India – The INR hits an all-time low versus the USD
• Euro area – European Central Bank lifts Greek EMU exit taboo
• Brazil – March retail sales likely rebounded
• Fears of a China hard landing based on April r...
Top 3 key events and data
• Taiwan – Rising risk of inflation as tech outlook improves
• India – INR under pressure on weak fundamentals
• Indonesia – Q1 growth likely moderated
• US NFP report is just one of many near-term event ...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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