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  • 26 May – India – Modi’s first year: Targeting reforms - Updated Mon May 25, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – April monitoring indicators index likely remained in ‘yellow-blue’ zone • Japan – Retail sales likely improved m/m in April • Korea – We expect April IP to have improved • Market focus • India’s government has take...

  • Asia data previews – 24-29 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 22, 2015

    Inflation was likely muted across Asia in April; we expect April IP to have rebounded in Japan and Korea • India FY15 GDP may be lower than expected at 7.4% y/y despite first quarterly C/A surplus in five years • Likely strong Q1 GDP growth and e...

  • 22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates - Updated Thu May 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread w...

  • 21-May – BoJ likely to remain on hold in May - Updated Wed May 20, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – GST to boost full-year inflation • Germany – IFO index likely to maintain its upward momentum • Brazil – A bumpy road for fiscal adjustment, but in the right direction • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to remain...

  • Asia data previews – 15-22 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • The external sector likely weighed on Thailand’s Q1 GDP while supporting Japan’s Q1 GDP • We expect BI to cut the policy rate by 25bps in May and the BoJ to remain on hold • Inflation for April is likely to have edged lower in Hong Kong and acce...

  • Cambodia – Riding the ‘China plus one’ wave - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    We recently visited Cambodia and met with public- and private-sector institutions • Cambodia is attracting international manufacturers seeking to diversify from China and other countries • Low labour costs, geographical advantage and pro-FDI polic...

  • 15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower BI rate - Updated Thu May 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI ...

  • 14-May – BoK likely to keep base rate on hold - Updated Wed May 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – CGPI may have contracted as the sales-tax effect faded • Hong Kong – We expect downside risks to Q1 GDP growth • Latam – We expect the BCCh and BCRP to keep rates unchanged • Market focus • We expect no BoK rate cut...

  • 12-May – China’s growth was likely weak in April [Correction] - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely reached a record high in March • Euro area – We expect GDP to have been buoyant in Q1 • Ghana – Monetary policy committee likely to hold prime rate at 21% • Market focus • April growth indices were...

  • Asia data previews – 8-15 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 8, 2015

    China growth likely softened further in April, while inflation remained subdued • We expect the central banks of the Philippines and South Korea to keep policy rates on hold • IP growth in Malaysia probably eased in March; private consumption like...

  • PRD’s pain, China and ASEAN’s gain - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    How PRD manufacturers are coping with challenges including labour shortage and wage pressure • What this means for the broader China economy • Why ASEAN can become the next PRD • Q&A...

  • PRD’s pain, China and ASEAN’s gain - Updated Tue May 5, 2015

    Companies in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) – China’s leading manufacturing hub – still face plenty of challenges, according to our sixth annual survey of manufacturers in the region. A labour shortage persists, and wages are likely to rise 8.4% this y...

  • 05-May – BNM is likely to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • BoJ minutes to shed light on Kiuchi’s proposal • New Zealand – Unemployment rate likely fell to 5.5% • US – Before payrolls, markets likely to listen carefully to Chair Yellen • Market focus • BNM is likely to keep the poli...

  • China – Far from unconventional policies - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    With growth trending down, we expect a four-pronged policy response to mitigate downside risk • Talk of QE and LTRO seems far-fetched; CNY devaluation does not appear to be an option • We call for a 25bps rate cut by end-June, followed by a total ...

  • Asia data previews – 2-8 May 2015 - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Inflation likely rose slightly in China, Indonesia, and Taiwan, but fell slightly in the Philippines • We expect the RBA to cut the policy rate by 25bps, and BNM to maintain it • Trade data for China, Malaysia, and Taiwan likely improved...

  • Japan – BoJ turns more dovish on inflation - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    • The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged on 30 April, in line with consensus • The BoJ extended the timeframe for achieving the 2% inflation target to H1-FY16 • We believe that the BoJ will need to ease further in H2-2015 if it is to achieve its i...

  • Japan – BoJ keeps policy unchanged - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board kept its ‘quantitative and qualitative monetary easing’ (QQE) programme unchanged at JPY 80tn of annual asset purchases at its 30 April monetary policy meeting. We had expected an expansion of QQE at the meeting...

  • 28-Apr – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold - Updated Mon April 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ likely to keep the cash rate at 3.50% in April • Japan – We expect the BoJ to ease further on 30 April • Euro area – Consumer confidence likely dipped in April • Market focus • We believe the BoT will kee...

  • 27-Apr – Weak US Q1 growth may stump the Fed - Updated Sun April 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade balance likely improved on sluggish import growth • Japan – Retail sales probably weakened y/y in March on a high base • UK – Consumption to drive growth, investment under pressure • Market focus • We t...

  • Asia data previews – 24 April-1 May 2015 - Updated Fri April 24, 2015

    BoJ may add JPY 10tn to its asset purchase programme and reconsider the inflation target timeline • BoT is likely finished with its easing cycle; the RBNZ may maintain its dovish stance but not ease as yet • China’s manufacturing sector is still u...



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22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...

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