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  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 01-Nov – Deflation risks and ECB policy options - Updated Thu October 31, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – September m/m retail sales likely remained flat • Hong Kong – CNH deposit accumulation re-accelerates • United States – ISM manufacturing survey expected to moderate • Market focus • The euro area faces a fragil...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 19-Jul – Abe’s campaign trail could end in a landslide - Updated Thu July 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation is likely edging higher • Taiwan – Export orders expected to improve, jobless rate to rise • G20 meeting – Likely to focus on tapering, growth and tax issues • Market focus • Japan’s ruling coalition ...

  • 24-Jun – CNY re-peg amid capital-market volatility - Updated Sun June 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Investment and consumption likely supported Q2 GDP • Philippines – Disappointing exports likely widened trade deficit further • Hong Kong – Fragile external backdrop to weigh on trade recovery • Market focus • Nor...

  • 09-May – The Tasman tango - Updated Wed May 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Q1 GDP expected to confirm sustained mild recovery • India – March IIP likely remained lacklustre • Japan – Current account balance likely increased in March • Market focus • RBA cuts rates to tackle the elev...

  • 26-Feb-13 – The new BoJ governor is… - Updated Mon February 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – A populist budget as housing issues take a backseat • Taiwan – Latest IP and leading index to show economy is recovering • United States – Listen for hints when Ben speaks before Congress • Market focus • Expe...

  • 21-Feb-13 – Mr. Abe goes to Washington - Updated Wed February 20, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Holiday distortion aside, we see upside inflation risk • Euro area – German IFO expected to confirm increasing confidence • US – January inflation probably 0.1%, home sales likely pulled back • Market focus • ...

  • 18-Jan-2013 – Robust bond and equity flows into EM [CORRECTION] - Updated Thu January 17, 2013

    • This supersedes the version dated 17 January 2013. Page 2, updates UK piece to reflect postponement of Prime Minister Cameron’s speech. • Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – December inflation is likely to have bottomed • Taiwan – Improving exp...

  • 15-Jan-13 – Latam to hold rates this week - Updated Mon January 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – A socially focused Policy Address • Japan – Economic data likely to suggest weak economic momentum • United States – December retail sales likely continued to bounce back • Market focus • BCB, Banxico, BCCh mee...

  • 26-Nov-12 – Central bank inflows support AXJ gains - Updated Sun November 25, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index to suggest a moderate growth rebound in Q4 • Philippines – Narrower trade deficit likely boosted C/A, reserves • Hong Kong – Exports likely to have normalised • Market focus • AXJ currencies have outp...

  • 16-Nov-12 – China and ‘jiefang sixiang’ - Updated Thu November 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – GDP growth is likely to have decelerated in Q3 • Japan – The ruling DPJ calls a snap election in December • CNH – The bigger the better • Market focus • China’s new generation of top leaders takes the stage • W...

  • 25-Oct-12 – HKD and distant echoes of the FOMC - Updated Wed October 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Overcoming deflation is a tough challenge for the BoJ • South Korea – GDP growth likely continued to weaken in Q3 • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely saw a modest recovery • Market focus • HKMA intervention a...

  • 23-Oct-12 – Trip notes from our US investor roadshow - Updated Mon October 22, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Inflation is not a concern for now • Hong Kong – Near-dated USD-HKD forwards slump • Thailand – BoT plans capital account liberalisation steps • Market focus • US investors are long PHP and INR; overweight durat...

  • 19-Oct-12 – Northeast Asia is on the mend - Updated Thu October 18, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation is finding a floor • Japan – Trade outlook remains gloomy • Taiwan – Job-market data to show the economy remains resilient • Market focus • Latest China data may improve appetite for Asian assets • C...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 24-Sep-12 – Mixed beneficiaries of QE3 in Africa - Updated Sun September 23, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines –Trade balance to benefit from export growth • Hong Kong – August exports unlikely to show any signs of recovery • Brazil – Focus on data ahead of key October COPOM meeting • Market focus • Higher-yielding marke...

  • 22-May-12 – The eye of the storm - Updated Mon May 21, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put this week, but may signal further easing • Malaysia – Both GDP and inflation likely slowed • Taiwan – IP to remain soft due to slowing exports Market focus • Market expectations for Wednesda...

  • 09-May-12 – Picking up the pace in China - Updated Tue May 8, 2012

    Key events and data • Indonesia – BI to keep interest rates on hold • Philippines – Export growth to remain positive • South Korea – BoK to keep interest rates unchanged Market focus • China’s economy shows tentative signs of recovery, but dow...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.