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  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • 14-Feb – USD strength to be delayed but not reversed - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Consumption and investment likely boosted Q4-2013 GDP • Singapore – Exports may remain positive despite potential distortion • Thailand – Political unrest likely took its toll on Q4-2013 GDP • Market focus • The US...

  • 23-Jan – Trip notes from Japan - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Upside to IP expected to be muted • Vietnam – Jan inflation likely edged higher, but still controllable • US – Existing home sales were likely up slightly in December • Market focus • Japanese clients are positi...

  • 20-Dec – EM-21 reserve monitor update - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – USD-CNY fix rises following Fed taper • Singapore – Stable inflation and industrial production expected • Vietnam – 2013 GDP likely grew 5.3% y/y; inflation is well contained • Market focus • EM-21 reserves inc...

  • 25-Nov – Asian manufacturing continues to recover - Updated Sun November 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely strong in October • Japan – BoJ minutes expected to show little change in policy stance • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in September • Market focus • Four Asian countries will ...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 24-Sep – Merkel triumphs; now for the tough part - Updated Mon September 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Top 3 Asian rates trades post-FOMC – Thailand, India and Singapore • Taiwan – Export orders to pick up ahead of year-end sales season • Vietnam – Q3 GDP likely rose moderately • Market focus • A victorious Angela Merkel...

  • 12-Sep – Japan looks likely to hike the sales tax - Updated Wed September 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – July IIP likely to improve; August CPI print to remain elevated • Singapore – Sluggish auto sales likely dragged down July retail sales • Turkey – Monetary policy U-turn precipitates TRY’s slump • Market focus • We ...

  • 23-Aug – Drawing the line in the EM debt sell-off - Updated Thu August 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Industrial production likely rebounded in July • Vietnam – August CPI expected to remain on an uptrend • US – New home sales likely edged down, but uptrend seems solid • Market focus • EM bonds have seen outflow...

  • 09-Aug – BoE – It’s a knockout - Updated Thu August 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Q2 GDP likely to be adjusted down from initial estimates • China – July’s trade improvement might not continue • Japan – Q2 GDP data to shed more light on economic recovery in H1 • Market focus • BoE to keep Ban...

  • 16-May – An unsustainable DXY-ADXY divide - Updated Wed May 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders probably increased m/m in March • Singapore – Pace of contraction in NODX was likely slower in April • US – Decelerating inflation; still-robust housing market • Market focus • USD climbs back to 20...

  • 25-Apr – Foreigners extend support for IDR bonds - Updated Wed April 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ looks set to upgrade its inflation forecasts • Singapore – IP likely improved in March • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely continued to rebound • Market focus • EM bonds saw strong foreign inflows in Apri...

  • 22-Mar – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Thu March 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Inflation likely slowed further • Taiwan – IP likely to show that growth recovery remains intact • Vietnam – Slower growth in Q1 • Market focus • We raise our USD-KRW, USD-TWD; USD-SGD forecasts; lower USD-THB ...

  • 14-Mar – Yen ‘Kuro-sion’ will be gradual - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Modest pick-up likely in January retail sales • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained steady in January • Asia – Strong foreign demand for KRW and THB bonds in February • Market focus • Kuroda is wide...

  • 22-Feb-13 – Bracing for the Italian election - Updated Thu February 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Inflation likely increased • Singapore – Inflation probably stayed above-trend • Commodities – Gold takes a tumble and is searching for a new floor • Market focus • A centre-left-plus-Monti victory is probably th...

  • 14-Jan-13 – BOJ under pressure - Updated Sun January 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Marginal improvement likely in November retail sales • Philippines – Consolidation in remittance growth in November • UK – Inflation is still sticky, but is likely to decelerate in 2013 • Market focus • Japan’...

  • 14-Dec-12 – Top FX trades for 2013 - Updated Thu December 13, 2012

    Key events and data • India – RBI likely to wait for inflation to decline • Japan – The LDP looks set to return to power • Singapore – Marginal improvements expected for November NODX • Market focus • We expect a stronger and volatile H1-2013...

  • 13-Dec-12 – The nail that gets hammered down - Updated Wed December 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Uptick expected in November WPI inflation • Singapore – Retail sales picking up slowly • EU – Survey data likely to indicate ongoing downturn • Market focus • Japan’s economy needs radical action, which an LDP vict...

  • 03-Dec-12 – GolSecs to rally on RBI OMOs - Updated Sun December 2, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We expect the RBA to keep the policy rate on hold • Singapore – PMI likely stayed negative • US – ISM to improve but progress remains slow • Market focus • India’s Q2-FY13 GDP in line with consensus at 5.3%; gr...

  • 05-Nov-12 – The lucky currency - Updated Sun November 4, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – CPI inflation momentum was likely flat • Singapore – PMI likely improved but stayed in contractionary territory • United States – Strong sales imply better ISM non-manufacturing • Market focus • We expect the ...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.