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  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • 17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1 - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y...

  • 08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates steady - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 18-Mar – The new BoK governor - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • UK – Labour-market slack is lessening • United States – Inflation to stay subdued; housing to edge up • Market focus • Ju-yeol Lee is likely to be confirmed as the new Ban...

  • 10-Feb – India: Softer inflation amid growth pains - Updated Sun February 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – December export growth likely remained robust • Japan – December machinery orders likely slightly dropped m/m • US – Another lacklustre payroll print; but tapering is set to continue • Market focus • India Jan...

  • 07-Feb – Closing the gap in USD-AXJ - Updated Thu February 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Annual current account surplus likely shrank in 2013 • Taiwan – January trade data likely to boost producers’ confidence • US – January payrolls: We see strength, beyond the harsh weather • Market focus • Investo...

  • 15-Jan – COPOM to maintain 50bps pace - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely remained at 5.8% in December • Japan – Machinery orders probably continued rising • United States – Two FOMC voters signal optimism on economy • Market focus • Surveys are divided 50/50...

  • 13-Jan – Fed vs. weather - Updated Sun January 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Labour market expected to have remained stable • Japan – Current account likely stayed negative in November • UK – Inflation likely to have stabilised in December • Market focus • December NFP a cold shower, ...

  • 19-Dec – That giant sucking sound - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain the asset purchase programme • UK – Final print to confirm Q3 GDP growth at 0.8% • Colombia – BanRep expected to be on hold at 3.25%, but tone is dovish • Market focus • Surprising USD 10b...

  • 09-Dec – Steady labour data, but the Fed is patient - Updated Sun December 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Export growth likely accelerated in October • Japan – Machinery orders, CGPI likely to show the impact of Abenomics • UK – Downtick in October IP, but set for better data ahead • Market focus • US labour mark...

  • 06-Dec – India’s state election signal - Updated Thu December 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – November macro data to be in focus next week • Japan – October current account likely remained in surplus • United States – The Fed will likely take a holistic view of Friday’s data • Market focus • Indian state el...

  • 30-Oct – Fed tapering: See you again, but next year - Updated Tue October 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economic conditions likely improved in September • Japan – Markets will watch the BoJ’s semi-annual economic review • Mexico – We take profit on our 5Y TIIE receiver • Market focus • The Fed is expected to k...

  • 26-Sep – Halloween comes early - Updated Wed September 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index likely rose on higher export sales • Japan – CPI inflation likely continued the uptrend • Euro area – Business and consumers are reluctantly more optimistic • Market focus • Tension is rising as ...

  • 06-Sep – UST: The baby and the bathwater - Updated Thu September 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export recovery continues on stable tech demand • China – Stable export growth, low inflation • Japan – Q2 GDP is likely to be revised up on better capex data • Market focus • Recent data supports our above-consens...

  • 18-Jul – No news is good news - Updated Wed July 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT likely to cut its 2013 GDP growth forecast • Japan – Weekly investor flows data will be watched closely • Canada – A small step towards more pronounced ‘forward guidance’ • Market focus • Fed QE tapering re...

  • 05-Jul – NFP unlikely to close the QE door right now - Updated Thu July 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Liquidity easing is likely temporary • Japan – Trade deficit is unlikely to erode the current account surplus • Taiwan – June trade data to show economy on the path to recovery Market focus • We now expect a gain ...

  • 17-Jun – Taper tantrums and the Bernanke straddle - Updated Sun June 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Growth strategy is not impressive so far • UK – Above-target inflation to persist, with near-term upside pressure • Germany – ZEW set to show unspectacular investor sentiment recovery • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 07-Jun – Flat Chinese growth; liquidity to stay tight - Updated Thu June 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Current account is expected to have remained positive • India – GoISec weakness is likely to persist in the short term • US – Payrolls to ease fears of short-term QE tapering • Market focus • We expect flat growth ...

  • 16-May – An unsustainable DXY-ADXY divide - Updated Wed May 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders probably increased m/m in March • Singapore – Pace of contraction in NODX was likely slower in April • US – Decelerating inflation; still-robust housing market • Market focus • USD climbs back to 20...

  • 24-Jan-13 – Revised G10 FX forecasts, weightings - Updated Thu January 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – RBI relaxes EEFC account utilisation norms • Japan – The end of deflation is still a long way off • Euro area – Business optimism rising, banks start to repay the ECB • Market focus • We raise modestly our 2013 fore...



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Trade idea

17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.