• Metals prices have come under pressure in late Q3, driven by concerns over China’s economy
• We see exposure to China’s property sector as a key performance differentiator going forward
• Aluminium is the LME base metal best insulated from th...
• Macro outlook
• FX outlook
• Rates outlook
• Commodity outlook
• Corporate strategy
• Central bank strategy...
Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors
• Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release
• Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...
ETF: Gold outflows increase as the Fed adjusts its lending-rate estimates
CFTC: Cumulative money flow reaches a new low as the USD pressures commodity prices lower...
• The fall in oil prices has called into question the continuation of high US supply growth
• High legacy output declines mean drilling declines, rather than well shut-ins, would be the cause of a stall
• The weekly US data release shows a rise in...
ETF: Gold investors return, but overall momentum remains bearish; oil investors see a break in support
• CFTC: Speculative flows showing signs of bottoming, but metals still susceptible to further corrections...
ETF: Gold outflows dominate commodity ETF space as ECB and BoJ attempt to boost their economies
• CFTC: Energy and metal speculative outflows continue with few signs of letting up
After a long run above USD 100/bbl, Brent prices have weakened on fears of slowing demand
• Refinery capacity expansions in China and the Middle East are set to keep jet cracks under pressure
• US gasoline demand surged in advance of Labor Day, w...
The current surge in refinery capacity in China and the Middle East is likely to continue into 2015
• Despite pockets of demand strength, demand growth is set to lag capacity growth significantly
• Jet crack will likely remain under pressure befo...
• ETF: Precious metal outflows dominate the ETF investor space following Jackson Hole
• CFTC: Speculators’ bearishness on energy and precious metals continues to grow
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