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  • Metals Standard – Price jitters - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    • Metals prices have come under pressure in late Q3, driven by concerns over China’s economy • We see exposure to China’s property sector as a key performance differentiator going forward • Aluminium is the LME base metal best insulated from th...

  • Q4 – Divergence - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodity outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Mon September 22, 2014

    Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors • Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release • Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon September 22, 2014

    ETF: Gold outflows increase as the Fed adjusts its lending-rate estimates CFTC: Cumulative money flow reaches a new low as the USD pressures commodity prices lower...

  • Oil Notes – When does tight oil become slack? - Updated Thu September 18, 2014

    • The fall in oil prices has called into question the continuation of high US supply growth • High legacy output declines mean drilling declines, rather than well shut-ins, would be the cause of a stall • The weekly US data release shows a rise in...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon September 15, 2014

    ETF: Gold investors return, but overall momentum remains bearish; oil investors see a break in support • CFTC: Speculative flows showing signs of bottoming, but metals still susceptible to further corrections...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon September 8, 2014

    ETF: Gold outflows dominate commodity ETF space as ECB and BoJ attempt to boost their economies • CFTC: Energy and metal speculative outflows continue with few signs of letting up ...

  • Oil Notes – Past imperfect - Updated Fri September 5, 2014

    After a long run above USD 100/bbl, Brent prices have weakened on fears of slowing demand • Refinery capacity expansions in China and the Middle East are set to keep jet cracks under pressure • US gasoline demand surged in advance of Labor Day, w...

  • Asia jet fuel – Still oversupplied - Updated Tue September 2, 2014

    The current surge in refinery capacity in China and the Middle East is likely to continue into 2015 • Despite pockets of demand strength, demand growth is set to lag capacity growth significantly • Jet crack will likely remain under pressure befo...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon September 1, 2014

    • ETF: Precious metal outflows dominate the ETF investor space following Jackson Hole • CFTC: Speculators’ bearishness on energy and precious metals continues to grow ...

  • Metals Standard – Deficit dynamics - Updated Wed August 27, 2014

    We launch our new regular metals publication, which contains detailed supply-demand analysis • Deficit dynamics and higher prices are likely to be the key base metal trend over the next 2-3 years • Off-warrant inventory levels and sluggish China d...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon August 25, 2014

    ETF: Gold inflows were strong before prices declined; a positive ETF-flow pattern is forming • CFTC: Outflows continue, with precious metals leading the way; agricultural flows are stagnant...

  • Silk Road – China commodity trade - Updated Thu August 21, 2014

    • July commodity data shows areas of economic strength but also a setback in the economic recovery • Weaker metal imports, offset by output and stock draws, result in strongest demand levels so far in 2014 • Crude oil imports are depressed by slug...

  • 21-Aug – A false dawn in USD-JPY? - Updated Wed August 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Strong jobs data likely boosted consumer confidence • Crude oil – The oil-glut mirage • Mexico – We expect a strong GDP growth reading for Q2-2014 • Market focus • USD-JPY has traded higher in the last week and w...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    ETF: Investor flows were calm last week; silver inflows offset energy and agricultural outflows • CFTC: Precious-metal inflows offset bearishness in base metals; gold-silver ratio seems overextended...

  • Oil Notes – The glut that never was - Updated Thu August 14, 2014

    • A political watershed in Baghdad, but too early to consider the level of exports from Basrah assured • Oil prices reflect fears of a severe oil glut in Q3, although global oil balances imply a deficit • Total US demand indications have remained ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon August 11, 2014

    ETF: A spike in base-metal inflows contrasts with bearish sentiment towards gold CFTC: The fourth strongest outflow since Jan-12 on bearishness towards energy and precious metals...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon August 4, 2014

    • ETF: All commodity sectors, except silver, saw positive ETF flows • CFTC: Cumulative net spec money outflows continue – this time from energy and metals ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon July 28, 2014

    • ETF: Positive flows into broad index funds; gold outflows as US jobless claims fall to an eight-year low • CFTC: A fourth consecutive weekly decline in aggregate net spec driven by oil products and grains ...

  • Oil Notes – Ghost ships - Updated Thu July 17, 2014

    The front of the Brent curve has fallen due to overly optimistic expectations of a rise in Libyan output • The IEA has initiated monthly updates on 2015 forecasts, with the global balance set to be stable • US refinery runs of crude oil are at a ...



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