• Metals prices have come under pressure in late Q3, driven by concerns over China’s economy
• We see exposure to China’s property sector as a key performance differentiator going forward
• Aluminium is the LME base metal best insulated from th...
• Macro outlook
• FX outlook
• Rates outlook
• Commodity outlook
• Corporate strategy
• Central bank strategy...
Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors
• Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release
• Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...
ETF: Gold outflows increase as the Fed adjusts its lending-rate estimates
CFTC: Cumulative money flow reaches a new low as the USD pressures commodity prices lower...
• The fall in oil prices has called into question the continuation of high US supply growth
• High legacy output declines mean drilling declines, rather than well shut-ins, would be the cause of a stall
• The weekly US data release shows a rise in...
ETF: Gold investors return, but overall momentum remains bearish; oil investors see a break in support
• CFTC: Speculative flows showing signs of bottoming, but metals still susceptible to further corrections...
ETF: Gold outflows dominate commodity ETF space as ECB and BoJ attempt to boost their economies
• CFTC: Energy and metal speculative outflows continue with few signs of letting up
After a long run above USD 100/bbl, Brent prices have weakened on fears of slowing demand
• Refinery capacity expansions in China and the Middle East are set to keep jet cracks under pressure
• US gasoline demand surged in advance of Labor Day, w...
The current surge in refinery capacity in China and the Middle East is likely to continue into 2015
• Despite pockets of demand strength, demand growth is set to lag capacity growth significantly
• Jet crack will likely remain under pressure befo...
• ETF: Precious metal outflows dominate the ETF investor space following Jackson Hole
• CFTC: Speculators’ bearishness on energy and precious metals continues to grow
We launch our new regular metals publication, which contains detailed supply-demand analysis
• Deficit dynamics and higher prices are likely to be the key base metal trend over the next 2-3 years
• Off-warrant inventory levels and sluggish China d...
ETF: Gold inflows were strong before prices declined; a positive ETF-flow pattern is forming
• CFTC: Outflows continue, with precious metals leading the way; agricultural flows are stagnant...
• July commodity data shows areas of economic strength but also a setback in the economic recovery
• Weaker metal imports, offset by output and stock draws, result in strongest demand levels so far in 2014
• Crude oil imports are depressed by slug...
Top 3 data/events
• Taiwan – Strong jobs data likely boosted consumer confidence
• Crude oil – The oil-glut mirage
• Mexico – We expect a strong GDP growth reading for Q2-2014
• Market focus
• USD-JPY has traded higher in the last week and w...
ETF: Investor flows were calm last week; silver inflows offset energy and agricultural outflows
• CFTC: Precious-metal inflows offset bearishness in base metals; gold-silver ratio seems overextended...
• A political watershed in Baghdad, but too early to consider the level of exports from Basrah assured
• Oil prices reflect fears of a severe oil glut in Q3, although global oil balances imply a deficit
• Total US demand indications have remained ...
ETF: A spike in base-metal inflows contrasts with bearish sentiment towards gold
CFTC: The fourth strongest outflow since Jan-12 on bearishness towards energy and precious metals...
• ETF: All commodity sectors, except silver, saw positive ETF flows
• CFTC: Cumulative net spec money outflows continue – this time from energy and metals
• ETF: Positive flows into broad index funds; gold outflows as US jobless claims fall to an eight-year low
• CFTC: A fourth consecutive weekly decline in aggregate net spec driven by oil products and grains
The front of the Brent curve has fallen due to overly optimistic expectations of a rise in Libyan output
• The IEA has initiated monthly updates on 2015 forecasts, with the global balance set to be stable
• US refinery runs of crude oil are at a ...
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