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  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • 18-Apr – Commodities and currencies - Updated Wed April 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNY gains to slow after the G20 meeting • Hong Kong – Unemployment not a worry • US – Fed speakers and initial jobless claim data in focus • Market focus • The commodity complex has been driven lower by positioning...

  • 01-Feb-13 – The euro and the currency wars - Updated Thu January 31, 2013

    • Singapore – PMI likely remained in contractionary territory • Oil – Rising crude prices are likely to be reined in • US – Lacklustre public-sector job data probably weighed on payrolls ...

  • 04-Jan-13 – Building case for AXJ rotation - Updated Thu January 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Nigeria – Long NGN 5Y trade target revised to 11% • Taiwan – Inflation expected to pick up, exports to continue to improve • Commodities – Rising speculative positions on Brent and gasoil • Market focus • Case for AXJ rotat...

  • Gold – Strength in EM demand pillars - Updated Thu November 8, 2012

    • China – We analyse the Shanghai premium over London as a guide to local demand strength • India – Demand has been dented by one-off events this year, but should bounce back • Central banks – Buying is heading towards a record and EM banks look u...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon August 6, 2012

    • ETF: Gold and silver inflows seen last week; agricultural index inflows stall as grain prices plateau • CFTC: Commodity net spec rises for eighth week in a row; bullish gold speculators return to the market...

  • Aluminium – Structural pressures to drive prices - Updated Mon June 18, 2012

    • We expect aluminium prices to trend higher as the cost base rises and the market tightens • China’s dramatic shift West will bring down power tariffs and increase competitiveness • We see prices rallying above USD 3,000/t in a high-demand scenar...



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27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to...

Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities, as an asset class, have outperformed other...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.