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  • Q4 – Divergence - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodity outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • 21-Aug – A false dawn in USD-JPY? - Updated Wed August 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Strong jobs data likely boosted consumer confidence • Crude oil – The oil-glut mirage • Mexico – We expect a strong GDP growth reading for Q2-2014 • Market focus • USD-JPY has traded higher in the last week and w...

  • 07-Jul – Commodities: Rise of the fundamentals - Updated Sun July 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation pressure remains muted • Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May • United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May Market focus • Positioning for uneven and slug...

  • Q3 – Stability tends to create instability - Updated Fri June 20, 2014

    • Overview – Cross-asset volatility remains extraordinarily low due to a combination of persistent global economic slack, muted inflation and a collective G5 (US, euro area, UK, Japan and Switzerland) policy put that has all but eliminated major eco...

  • El Niño – Blowing hot and cold on food markets - Updated Wed May 14, 2014

    • Risks of an El Niño event have risen, with potentially damaging consequences for some crop yields • Our studies show global CPO stocks to be the most vulnerable to an El Niño event in the 2014/15 season • Such an event could elevate inflation ...

  • 13-May – Sell AXJ in May and go away? - Updated Mon May 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – April WPI likely stayed elevated • Japan – April CGPI may reflect the sales-tax effect • UK – Unemployment likely fell further • Market focus • Q2 is a weak quarter for AXJ currencies versus USD, but it is quart...

  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...



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