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  • 17-Sep – No Summers season at the Fed - Updated Mon September 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely rose only modestly in August • UK – BoE minutes likely to express caution over unemployment • US – August inflation was likely tame; home builders’ optimism lower • Market focus • Summers’ withdr...

  • 13-Sep – An overlooked AXJ appreciation story? - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Elevated base effect probably contained August WPI • Philippines – Remittance growth likely continued to support consumption • US – Cars likely drove retail sales; but confidence may have been hit • Market focus • P...

  • 04-Sep – Asian trade, IP risks increasingly to the upside - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to upgrade its economic assessment • Malaysia – BNM likely to keep policy rate on hold • Canada – BoC expected to stay on hold ahead of FOMC meeting • Market focus • We reiterate our view that talk of a r...

  • 30-Aug – EM reserve adequacy - Updated Thu August 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – August headline inflation likely slowed m/m, picked up y/y • South Korea – Headline inflation, exports likely continued to rise • US – Expected increase in Chicago PMI would bode well for ISM survey • Market foc...

  • 29-Aug – Moderate recovery likely continued in Japan - Updated Wed August 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Africa – We close our receiver on the 2Y swap • India – Apr-Jun 2013 GDP growth likely slipped further • US – Q2 GDP growth expected to be revised slightly up Market focus • Japan’s July data is likely to show a mode...

  • 27-Aug – AXJ FX to fall further, but no crisis - Updated Mon August 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Rates – New 20Y SGS to fetch 3.3-3.4%, drive 20/30Y slope steeper • US – Home prices are still rising, but consumer confidence cools • Brazil – We expect the COPOM to accelerate pace of hikes to 75bps • Market focus • CA de...

  • 26-Aug – Implications of a decline in FX reserves - Updated Sun August 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Africa – Q2 GDP likely to show recovery, output gap persists • Germany – Survey data point to an ongoing recovery • US – Core durable goods orders likely picked up in July • Market focus • Reserve managers have been ...

  • 23-Aug – Drawing the line in the EM debt sell-off - Updated Thu August 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Industrial production likely rebounded in July • Vietnam – August CPI expected to remain on an uptrend • US – New home sales likely edged down, but uptrend seems solid • Market focus • EM bonds have seen outflow...

  • 06-Aug – China: Slower growth, targeted boost - Updated Mon August 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Industrial production likely picked up in June • UK – BoE to release forward guidance details • US – Trade deficit likely narrowed marginally in June • Market focus • China’s July data is likely to show continue...

  • 02-Aug – US vs. China – Who matters more in Asia? - Updated Thu August 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Trade likely rebounded in June • Taiwan – A temporary downtrend in headline inflation • US – Job gains likely maintained their recent solid trend • Market focus • We examine Asia’s external linkages to the US...

  • 01-Aug – The supertanker is moving - Updated Wed July 31, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Stay bearish on TGBs and the TWD IRS market • EM flows – Slowdown in outflows expected • US – ISM likely to show that manufacturing remains in good shape • Market focus • US Q2 GDP data surprised to the upside, but...

  • 29-Jul – India – A breather between storms - Updated Sun July 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – IP likely continued to improve • Euro area – Improved confidence expected ahead of next ECB meeting • US – 31 July brings likely soft Q2 GDP data and the FOMC policy decision • Market focus • We expect the RBI to k...

  • 25-Jul – Reserving the right to tighten [CORRECTION] - Updated Thu July 25, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 25 July 2013. On page 1, Key data/events today. • Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Electronics sector may have bottomed • Taiwan – LEI index to show that the growth rebound continues • United States – June durab...

  • 15-Jul – Remain negative on EM bonds - Updated Sun July 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – July minutes might provide insights into further moves • CNH – CNH discount at end-2013, premium to re-emerge in H2-2014 • US – Consumer spending likely resisted fiscal headwinds • Market focus • Directional si...

  • 12-Jul – Revised G10 FX forecasts and weightings [Correction] - Updated Fri July 12, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 12 July 2013. Page 2, includes Figure 1, FX forecasts. • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Rebound in remittance flow likely continued • Mexico – We raise our short-term MXN weighting to Neutral • US – Fed memb...

  • United States – Tapering looming, yields to rise more - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    We expect the Fed to reduce its QE programme by USD 10bn in September, but this is still a close call • Soft data is likely over the summer, but recent strong job gains are enough for the Fed to proceed • QE will likely end in Q2-2014; the Fed is ...

  • 02-Jul – Reserve revelations - Updated Mon July 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely remained positive in June • Euro area – Retail sales to show moderate but muted growth • US – Services sector to have kept growing; ADP data key ahead of NFP • Market focus • The IMF has revealed AUD ...

  • 01-Jul – Macro 1: Financial-market sentiment 0 - Updated Sun June 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – We forecast gradual VND depreciation • Australia – RBA is likely to leave rate unchanged on AUD depreciation • US – Regional surveys signal a rise in the nationwide ISM index • Market focus • Recent financial-marke...

  • 27-Jun – Gold prices tumble as investors liquidate - Updated Wed June 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Economic data to show an uneven pace of recovery • South Korea – Industrial production likely posted a mild gain in May • US – Personal spending may fine-tune Q2 GDP expectations • Market focus • Investor selling o...

  • 26-Jun – PBoC tones down a bit - Updated Tue June 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS to auction SGD 1.8bn of 10Y SGS on 26 June • Taiwan – CBC likely to keep rates on hold for eighth straight quarter • United States – MBA mortgage data could be affected by rising yields • Market focus • Chin...



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Trade idea

16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical concerns have lifted food prices • Inventories...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.