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  • 20-Jun – Fed confidence unnerves markets - Updated Wed June 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Still on the path to recovery • Brazil – Inflation takes to the streets • United States – Robust home sales, soft manufacturing • Market focus • The Fed had a more hawkish tone than expected; ‘tapering’ is on the ...

  • United States – Fed likely to emphasise gradualism - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile • We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date • The underlying momentum is softe...

  • Fixing the developed countries – US leads the way - Updated Thu May 23, 2013

    Our scorecard suggests the US has now largely recovered from the 2008 crisis; only a ‘lost half-decade’ • Japan and the UK are behind; Spain still has a long way to go • We focus on progress in balance sheet adjustment and the effectiveness of mon...

  • 16-May – An unsustainable DXY-ADXY divide - Updated Wed May 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders probably increased m/m in March • Singapore – Pace of contraction in NODX was likely slower in April • US – Decelerating inflation; still-robust housing market • Market focus • USD climbs back to 20...

  • 10-May – The rise of the doves - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Modest recovery likely continued in April • India – Slower CPI increases expected • United States – Fed speakers are unlikely to surprise the market • Market focus • BoK’s surprise decision to cut 25bps is the start...

  • 02-May – RBI set to cut the repo rate - Updated Wed May 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Africa – PMI expected to remain sub-50 • UK – April services PMI to improve • US – Recent weak data leads us to lower our NFP forecast • Market focus • RBI to cut the repo rate by 25bps to 7.25%; policy guidance likel...

  • 26-Apr – Not yet a ‘market-determined’ CNY - Updated Thu April 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Italy – Political climate easing but BTP rally runs out of steam • Latam – Rates on hold in Mexico and Colombia • United States – Q1 GDP growth was likely solid, but Q2 will be softer • Market focus • China recorded a healt...

  • 18-Apr – Commodities and currencies - Updated Wed April 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNY gains to slow after the G20 meeting • Hong Kong – Unemployment not a worry • US – Fed speakers and initial jobless claim data in focus • Market focus • The commodity complex has been driven lower by positioning...

  • 16-Apr – Beijing stays calm - Updated Mon April 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Export performance to remain weak on a y/y basis • Malaysia – Inflation still benign, but gathering momentum • United States – IMF set to cut its 2013 growth forecast • Market focus • Weak consumption drags Q1 ...

  • 12-Apr – China consolidated in Q1 - Updated Thu April 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Likely market reaction on possible MAS announcements • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained robust in February • US – March’s retail sales to feel the pinch of the fiscal drag • Market focus • We expe...

  • 09 Apr – Korean markets are in the spotlight - Updated Mon April 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/ events • China – March likely to have seen another sizeable trade surplus • Indonesia – DMO targets IDR 60tn of treasury issuance in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to take a back seat given recent data • Market focus • Tensions on the Korea...

  • 08-Apr – USD's swoon may be short - Updated Sun April 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CPI inflation slowed in February, but should rise later in 2013 • Germany – Exports likely weakened, although by less than consensus • UK – Production data is likely better, if not largely improved • Market focus • ...

  • 04-Apr – CNY’s growing influence on African FX - Updated Wed April 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – February trade likely to have been seasonally impacted • Germany – Some respite for factory orders • US – Non-farm payrolls likely edged lower in March • Market focus • CNY is now a key driver of AXJ currencies...

  • 02-Apr – Thailand might cut its policy rate - Updated Mon April 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – CPI inflation likely eased due to high base effects • Singapore – PMI data likely remained subdued in March • US – Services sector probably maintained momentum in March • Market focus • In March, Thai core in...

  • 26-Mar – Bailing in – A worrisome precedent - Updated Mon March 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Recovery appears intact, despite slowdown in leading index • Europe – Confidence under pressure • US – Headline durable goods orders rebound on transportation • Market focus • The immediate crisis in Cyprus has ea...

  • 20-Mar – THB, PHP local markets to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan –Trade deficit likely continued in February • UK – Retail sales may have crept up in February, but remain fragile • US – The FOMC is expected to sit tight • Market focus • SCTF and SC FIRST suggest that positioning ...

  • 19-Mar – Damned if they do, damned if they don't - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Still-muted inflation is expected • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show ongoing revival in tech demand • US – Housing construction data to confirm its upward trend • Market focus • Cyprus ‘bail-in’ unnerves e...

  • 15-Mar – USD in transition, but no ‘new normal’ yet - Updated Thu March 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX likely fell in January-February • Copper – Inventories to provide headwinds to price recovery • United States – Confidence to improve, inflation to stay tame • Market focus • We have long called for medium...

  • 07-Mar – EM central bank reserve monitor - Updated Wed March 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – February trade likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Japan – Economy watchers survey to show improvement • United States – Trade deficit likely widened on rising import costs • Market focus • EM-21 central bank reserv...

  • 01-Mar-13 – Tail risks return to Europe as Italy dithers - Updated Thu February 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – The CNY rises to number 13 in most-used currency list • South Korea – A modest uptick in headline inflation is expected • US – Economy is improving, but the sequester is a key risk • Market focus • A new election l...



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16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical concerns have lifted food prices • Inventories...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.