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  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • Canada – Going north, gradually - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    We revise up our forecast for Canada’s GDP growth to 2.2% y/y for 2014 • We now see inflation rising to 1.4% for 2014, 0.2ppt down from our prior estimate • We expect the BoC to hike its policy rate in Q4-2015, one quarter earlier than previously ...

  • 13-Mar – IDR and THB rallies to stall near-term - Updated Wed March 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ minutes to shed more light on future policy stance • India – February WPI likely slipped below 5% • US – Retail sales likely picked up mildly as the weather improved • Market focus • We believe the IDR and TH...

  • 10-Mar – USD beached on the ‘island of stability’ - Updated Sun March 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put after its last surprise announcement • Philippines – Export growth likely started 2014 on a firm footing • United Kingdom – 2014 output rises to meet growing domestic and external demand • ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

  • 07-Mar – China, commodities and currencies - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Trade deficit to stay in single digits • Japan – C/A was likely in deficit again in January • US – February’s job report to show a hiring slowdown amid bad weather • Market focus • China’s February trade data to so...

  • 05-Mar – Keeping the faith at the ECB - Updated Tue March 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We look for ongoing strength in retail sales and international trade • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep rates steady • US – Watch ADP and ISM service PMI for hints on Friday’s NFP report • Market focus • We exp...

  • 04-Mar – Spill-over from the Ukraine crisis - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q4 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to hold the policy rate at 1% • Chile – Getting ahead of the curve • Market focus • Asia, Africa and the Middle East have li...

  • 03-Mar – CNH rates to climb amid FX volatility - Updated Sun March 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain neutral stance, keep rates unchanged • Europe – Central banks look to activity data • United States – ISM manufacturing PMI likely inched up in February • Market focus • USD-CNY intra-day ...

  • 23-Jan – Trip notes from Japan - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Upside to IP expected to be muted • Vietnam – Jan inflation likely edged higher, but still controllable • US – Existing home sales were likely up slightly in December • Market focus • Japanese clients are positi...

  • 22-Jan – Korea likely to show steady Q4 GDP growth - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data may show a rebound in economic activity • Singapore – Lower transport inflation likely slowed December inflation • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to leave policy rate unchanged • Market focus • Q4 G...

  • 18-Dec – Risks to our FX calls - Updated Tue December 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q3-2013 GDP likely showed a rebound from the drought • Taiwan – Export orders to show improving demand into 2014 • United States – We expect a dovish Fed to keep QE at USD 85bn/month • Market focus • We remai...

  • 17-Dec – India – RBI to focus on managing inflation - Updated Mon December 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – November’s trade balance likely remained in deficit • Malaysia – Inflation may have increased very slightly in November • US – CPI likely tame; homebuilders’ confidence probably rose • Market focus • Uncomfortably ...

  • United States – Steadying the boat for a new captain - Updated Mon December 16, 2013

    We do not expect, but do not rule out, a small QE taper at the 17-18 December FOMC meeting • We think the Fed may prefer to wait for more evidence that growth is entrenched, inflation is picking up • The ‘changing of the guard’ may support the sta...

  • 12-Dec – China’s on/offshore liquidity contrast - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Retail sales likely contracted at a slower pace in October • US – Robust auto sales likely boosted holiday retail sales • Latam – A busy day across the region on Thursday • Market focus • Central Economic Work ...

  • Introducing SC IMM: A reassessment of the IMM data - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    We introduce our SC IMM heatmap to leverage off the CFTC/IMM’s disaggregated FX position data • This unique tool provides strong signals of extreme positioning skew and potential FX trading indicators • Back-testing confirms that SC IMM and our me...

  • 06-Dec – India’s state election signal - Updated Thu December 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – November macro data to be in focus next week • Japan – October current account likely remained in surplus • United States – The Fed will likely take a holistic view of Friday’s data • Market focus • Indian state el...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • 21-Nov – Trip notes: European corporates - Updated Wed November 20, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Germany – Ifo trends up, but recent weaker data highlights uncertainty • Mexico – We revise our 2013 growth forecast to 1.4% from 2.3% • US – Initial jobless claims likely trended lower • Market focus • European exporters a...

  • 20-Nov – Reviewing our Asian rates trade ideas - Updated Tue November 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ to stay on hold at its MPC meeting • South Africa – Repo rate to remain on hold for now • United States – October FOMC minutes likely to bring no surprises • Market focus • We take profit on our receive KRW 1Y1Y...



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16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical concerns have lifted food prices • Inventories...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.