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  • 12-Dec – China’s on/offshore liquidity contrast - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Retail sales likely contracted at a slower pace in October • US – Robust auto sales likely boosted holiday retail sales • Latam – A busy day across the region on Thursday • Market focus • Central Economic Work ...

  • 06-Dec – India’s state election signal - Updated Thu December 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – November macro data to be in focus next week • Japan – October current account likely remained in surplus • United States – The Fed will likely take a holistic view of Friday’s data • Market focus • Indian state el...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • 21-Nov – Trip notes: European corporates - Updated Wed November 20, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Germany – Ifo trends up, but recent weaker data highlights uncertainty • Mexico – We revise our 2013 growth forecast to 1.4% from 2.3% • US – Initial jobless claims likely trended lower • Market focus • European exporters a...

  • 20-Nov – Reviewing our Asian rates trade ideas - Updated Tue November 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ to stay on hold at its MPC meeting • South Africa – Repo rate to remain on hold for now • United States – October FOMC minutes likely to bring no surprises • Market focus • We take profit on our receive KRW 1Y1Y...

  • 29-Oct – A week in Brazil - Updated Mon October 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ likely to maintain its status quo • Euro area – Improvement in sentiment may seem unspectacular • US – Slower auto sales likely weighed on retail sales • Market focus • Brazilian investors were most inter...

  • 28-Oct – India: RBI – Sequencing the exit - Updated Sun October 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Rising retail sales and hiring indicate growing confidence • South Korea – Industrial production likely contracted in September • US – Pending homes sales likely slowed, but IP probably increased • Market focus • Hi...

  • 25-Oct – China’s tight liquidity likely to be short-lived - Updated Thu October 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – LEI index likely to suggest economy is gaining momentum • Mexico – Banxico expected to cut, BanRep to hold • US – Solid manufacturing PMI and aircraft orders signal rising DGO • Market focus • China money-market r...

  • 23-Oct – Malaysia: Fiscal hopes - Updated Tue October 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – We expect unchanged policy rates • Euro area – Q4 may kick off with expansionary PMIs across the board • Canada – BoC policy rate is likely to be unchanged Market focus • Malaysia will announce its 2014 budg...

  • 17-Oct – Asia’s safe havens - Updated Wed October 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – GDP growth likely picked up, policy expected to be on hold • Mexico – MXN likely to lead Latam FX on US debt deal • US – The shutdown impact may be reflected in jobless claims • Market focus • CNY is Asia’s safe-hav...

  • 10-Oct – Value in vol - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade outlook is still bright • India – August IIP expected to have remained positive • United States – Yellen appointed: Labour-market slack still her focus • Market focus • FX vols, both in G10 and EM, have yet t...

  • 08-Oct – My way or the Beltway - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Egypt – EGP strengthens on large aid flows • Europe – Positive industrial production data in both UK and Germany • US – Small business optimism likely declined; October could be worse • Market focus • There are no signs th...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 02 Oct – High noon on Capitol Hill - Updated Tue October 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Focus is back on weekly investor flows after sales tax decision • Euro area – Italy: Politics to the fore, again • US – Government shutdown affects upcoming data calendar • Market focus • The partial US government s...

  • 25-Sep – Top Asian rates trades amid tapering delay - Updated Tue September 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Government front-loads H2-FY14 market borrowing • Taiwan – CBC likely to hold policy rate steady; IP data on an uptrend • US – Core durable goods orders and new home sales likely rebounded • Market focus • Fed’s ta...

  • 23-Sep – India – The RBI’s hawkish twist - Updated Sun September 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Germany – Business optimum persists in the run-up to the election • Nigeria – FX policy in focus at MPC meeting • US – Consumer confidence likely eroded; home prices on the rise • Market focus • Hawkish RBI is likely to inc...

  • United States – FOMC: A three-point turn - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Fed backtracks at September’s meeting: we change our QE tapering call to March 2014 • Low inflation and fiscal risks at the forefront; Bernanke’s views unlikely to change before he steps down • The Fed may reduce QE by USD 20bn by March, in our vi...

  • 17-Sep – No Summers season at the Fed - Updated Mon September 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely rose only modestly in August • UK – BoE minutes likely to express caution over unemployment • US – August inflation was likely tame; home builders’ optimism lower • Market focus • Summers’ withdr...

  • 13-Sep – An overlooked AXJ appreciation story? - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Elevated base effect probably contained August WPI • Philippines – Remittance growth likely continued to support consumption • US – Cars likely drove retail sales; but confidence may have been hit • Market focus • P...

  • 04-Sep – Asian trade, IP risks increasingly to the upside - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to upgrade its economic assessment • Malaysia – BNM likely to keep policy rate on hold • Canada – BoC expected to stay on hold ahead of FOMC meeting • Market focus • We reiterate our view that talk of a r...



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