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  • JPY – A gathering storm - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • We highlight increasing downside risks to USD-JPY in the near term; expect a pick-up in JPY volatility • The Bank of Japan appears comfortably sidelined for now even as domestic data hits a soft patch • We revise our short-term USD-JPY forecas...

  • UK – Cut the slack - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    • Spare capacity is key for BoE policy makers: by Q4-2014, less slack in the labour market should trigger concerns over the medium-term inflation outlook • We expect a measured hiking path equivalent to 25bps each quarter from Q1-2015 through 2016 ...

  • UK – Cut the slack! - Updated Wed February 12, 2014

    The BoE drops its unemployment threshold and is now focusing on spare capacity and productivity • Economic slack could be eliminated by early 2015, with unemployment reaching equilibrium by late 2014 • We revise up our 2014-15 GDP forecast, cut 20...

  • Now or never for the EUR-USD bears - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    Time may be running short for EUR-USD to fall as underlying fundamentals grow increasingly balanced • We remain committed USD bulls, however, so we still expect a EUR-USD move lower in H1 • Leveraged funds: We recommend buying 3M 25/10-delta EUR-U...

  • 29-Nov – Pricing CNY into year-end - Updated Thu November 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Imports continue to grow as the economy recovers • Thailand – Take profit on receive THB 3Y IRS • USD-CAD – We are raising the stop-loss on our long position Market focus • China’s official manufacturing PMI ...

  • Trade idea – Sell EUR-USD 2M 25-delta strangles - Updated Thu November 14, 2013

    We think EUR-USD spot is likely to remain confined to familiar ranges into early next year • The macro drivers behind EUR-USD have attained a near-term equilibrium; major risks are now priced in • Even with implied vols at their current subdued le...

  • Buy USD-CAD - Updated Thu October 24, 2013

    • The Bank of Canada has formally dropped its tightening bias and turned more dovish • This should put the CAD under renewed depreciation pressure as the local economy remains sluggish • We are adding USD-CAD longs to the Standard Chartered Tradin...

  • United States – FOMC: A three-point turn - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Fed backtracks at September’s meeting: we change our QE tapering call to March 2014 • Low inflation and fiscal risks at the forefront; Bernanke’s views unlikely to change before he steps down • The Fed may reduce QE by USD 20bn by March, in our vi...

  • Take profit on USD-CAD longs - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    We are closing our long USD-CAD position to protect profit as spot has lost upward momentum • Broad-based USD longs appear vulnerable to a position squeeze, USD-CAD is unlikely to remain immune • CAD’s fundamentals remain weak, however, and we w...

  • Updates on the ‘not-so-lucky’ country and the AUD - Updated Mon June 24, 2013

    • We revise our AUD-USD forecasts lower on the Fed’s QE ‘tapering’ plans, China’s large mining capacity • Leveraged funds: Position for further declines in AUD-USD, with strategies based on risk reversals • Real-money funds: Cut medium-term FX all...

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