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  • Buy USD-CAD - Updated Tue May 28, 2013

    We recommend buying USD-CAD via 3M forward outright on US-Canada economic divergence • With the housing-market boom stalling, Canada’s safe-haven status is in question • CAD has room to close the gap with G10 weakness versus the USD...

  • CNY – Band widening likely by end-Q3 - Updated Mon May 6, 2013

    • USD-CNY demand/supply was heavily in favour of sales in Q1, but should be more balanced in Q2 • More balanced demand/supply and new SAFE rules increase the chance of band widening • We see a 33% chance of CNY band widening before the July SED, o...

  • 01-Feb-13 – The euro and the currency wars - Updated Thu January 31, 2013

    • Singapore – PMI likely remained in contractionary territory • Oil – Rising crude prices are likely to be reined in • US – Lacklustre public-sector job data probably weighed on payrolls ...

  • EUR-USD faces two-way risks, but lower in Q1-2013 - Updated Fri December 14, 2012

    We think recent EUR-USD gains have been driven mostly by risk appetite rather than fundamentals • Two-way risks will dominate in the next few weeks on competing fundamental factors • We think cyclical divergence should see renewed EUR-USD weakness...

  • United States – Bernanke is not afraid of commitment [CORRECTION ] - Updated Thu December 13, 2012

    • This supersedes the version dated 12 December 2012. On page 2, 2nd paragraph, corrects year-end USD-JPY forecast to 81.00 from 82.00. • The FOMC expands QE purchases to absorb the expiration of Operation Twist • Fed commits to keep rates on hol...

  • 16-Jul-12 – Hot summer, cold turkey - Updated Sun July 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth expected to be moderate • Germany – ZEW survey to point to weaker sentiment • United States – Maintain pay 5Y swap spread position • Market focus • We believe that hopes of further QE are optimistic ...

  • Take profit on EUR-USD seagull trade as target hit - Updated Fri July 13, 2012

    • We recommend investors take profit on the EUR-USD seagull position we recommended on 20 June • EUR-USD has moved sharply lower and we have reached the maximum expected profit point • We remain bearish the EUR on a broad basis and look for furthe...

  • EU summit – A necessary but insufficient outcome - Updated Mon July 2, 2012

    • The EU summit’s decision to allow greater ESM flexibility is a short-term positive for sentiment and EUR • The market’s immediate focus is on leveraged-fund positional vulnerability to the EU summit’s surprise • But market focus is likely to sw...

  • 25-Jun-12 – Moody’s ups the heat on Europe - Updated Sun June 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth • Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds • Market focus • The Moody’s...

  • Opportunities in EUR-USD options, basis swaps - Updated Wed June 20, 2012

    Leveraged fund positioning in FX has rotated from USD-based to a combination of USD and EUR positioning, with positions now flat USD but short EUR; consensus position is short UST • EUR-USD short-dated volatility has collapsed since the Greek elect...

  • United States – We expect OT2 not QE3 - Updated Mon June 18, 2012

    We expect an extension of Operation Twist, but the threshold for QE3 has not been crossed • Growth is not slow enough and core inflation is not low enough • We remain neutral duration on UST ahead of the FOMC meeting • Extending Operation Twist i...

  • Close USD-JPY longs - Updated Thu May 31, 2012

    • We are closing our USD-JPY long position ahead of our stated 77.75 stop-loss level • Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply on the back of renewed tensions in the euro area • The JPY’s safe-haven role has been further boosted by the BoJ’s pol...

  • 31-May-12 – Spain’s banks steal the Greek show - Updated Wed May 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI likely to slide, confirming the slowdown in manufacturing • Indonesia – Inflation to remain at moderate levels • South Korea – Benign inflation and sluggish trade flows to prevail Market focus • Spain illustrates...

  • G10 FX forecast revisions and scenario analysis - Updated Mon May 28, 2012

    It now looks more likely than not that Greece will exit EMU • We revise our G10 FX forecasts, having conducted forecast distribution and scenario analysis • Leveraged funds: We recommend that leveraged funds buy 3M EUR-JPY 97/92 put spreads • Rea...

  • 22-May-12 – The eye of the storm - Updated Mon May 21, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put this week, but may signal further easing • Malaysia – Both GDP and inflation likely slowed • Taiwan – IP to remain soft due to slowing exports Market focus • Market expectations for Wednesda...

  • 18-May-12 – The epic quest for growth (and money) - Updated Thu May 17, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Greece is in the spotlight at G8 Summit; concrete measures are unlikely • Taiwan – April export orders to rebound on improving tech outlook • Thailand – Weaker external demand to be a drag on Q1 GDP Market focus ...

  • Buy USD-JPY - Updated Wed May 16, 2012

    • We think the correction in USD-JPY is now complete and we are looking for spot to trade higher • Rate differentials have moved in favour of USD gains while positioning has turned more constructive • We target a move up to 84 in spot terms, with ...

  • United States – Participation and unemployment - Updated Wed May 2, 2012

    • The trend in the participation rate is critical for the unemployment rate • We now expect less downward pressure on the unemployment rate from participation-rate declines • Payroll growth of 150,000 monthly, as we expect, will allow unemploymen...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.