• USD-CNY demand/supply was heavily in favour of sales in Q1, but should be more balanced in Q2
• More balanced demand/supply and new SAFE rules increase the chance of band widening
• We see a 33% chance of CNY band widening before the July SED, o...
• Singapore – PMI likely remained in contractionary territory
• Oil – Rising crude prices are likely to be reined in
• US – Lacklustre public-sector job data probably weighed on payrolls ...
We think recent EUR-USD gains have been driven mostly by risk appetite rather than fundamentals
• Two-way risks will dominate in the next few weeks on competing fundamental factors
• We think cyclical divergence should see renewed EUR-USD weakness...
• This supersedes the version dated 12 December 2012. On page 2, 2nd paragraph, corrects year-end USD-JPY forecast to 81.00 from 82.00.
• The FOMC expands QE purchases to absorb the expiration of Operation Twist
• Fed commits to keep rates on hol...
Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – NODX growth expected to be moderate
• Germany – ZEW survey to point to weaker sentiment
• United States – Maintain pay 5Y swap spread position
• Market focus
• We believe that hopes of further QE are optimistic ...
• We recommend investors take profit on the EUR-USD seagull position we recommended on 20 June
• EUR-USD has moved sharply lower and we have reached the maximum expected profit point
• We remain bearish the EUR on a broad basis and look for furthe...
• The EU summit’s decision to allow greater ESM flexibility is a short-term positive for sentiment and EUR
• The market’s immediate focus is on leveraged-fund positional vulnerability to the EU summit’s surprise
• But market focus is likely to sw...
Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production
• Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth
• Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds
• Market focus
• The Moody’s...
Leveraged fund positioning in FX has rotated from USD-based to a combination of USD and EUR positioning, with positions now flat USD but short EUR; consensus position is short UST
• EUR-USD short-dated volatility has collapsed since the Greek elect...
We expect an extension of Operation Twist, but the threshold for QE3 has not been crossed
• Growth is not slow enough and core inflation is not low enough
• We remain neutral duration on UST ahead of the FOMC meeting
• Extending Operation Twist i...
If this is a public computer please consider checking this box carefully.
Please access our research via your Straight2Bank account
This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
About Standard Chartered
Group investor relations
Group media centre
WB media centre
Copyright © 2014 Standard Chartered Bank