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  • 12-Mar – Fine-tuning our G10 FX forecasts - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth likely moderated due to seasonal effects • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged in March • Malaysia – External tailwinds likely supported IP growth in January • Market focus • We are adjusting sele...

  • 12-Feb – US: Yellen sings from Bernanke’s songbook - Updated Tue February 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely rose to a 4.5-year high of 5.9% • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in February • South Korea – The policy rate is likely to be kept on hold at 2.5% • Market focus • There...

  • 11-Dec – Once bitten, twice shy - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – IIP to turn negative, CPI remains sticky • Indonesia – We expect BI to hike rates at the December meeting • South Korea – BoK is likely to keep its policy rate at 2.5% • Market focus • Cumulative upside data surpris...

  • 31-Jul – For your guidance - Updated Tue July 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Weakness in manufacturing PMI likely continued • South Korea – Both headline inflation and exports likely picked up • Indonesia – Month-on-month inflation likely peaked in July • Market focus • The ECB and BoE use...

  • 03-May – NFP in sight as Fed keeps all options open - Updated Thu May 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Improving retail sales • Indonesia – Q1 real GDP expected at 6.2% y/y • Taiwan – Core inflation likely to outpace the headline figure • Market focus • NFP data scrutinised as the Fed indicates it stands ready to...

  • 30-Apr – Waiting patiently for Mrs Watanabe - Updated Mon April 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – April PMI has the potential to disappoint • Indonesia – Expect moderating inflation, not deflation, in April • South Korea – Low inflation and a rebound in exports look likely • Market focus • We expect some degree ...

  • 06-Mar – BoE could ease ahead of the ECB - Updated Tue March 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – BNM is likely to keep the policy rate steady on 7 March • Indonesia – BI expected to keep its official rate unchanged in March • Japan – A more dovish BoJ is emerging • Market focus • The EUR is not at risky leve...

  • 02-Nov-12 – It’s the Electoral College that matters - Updated Thu November 1, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect a robust Q3 growth reading • Taiwan – CPI was likely above 2% for a fourth straight month • United States – The labour market still has a long way to go • Market focus • While polls show a tied pop...

  • 31-Aug-12 – Bernanke maintains QE option [CORRECTION] - Updated Fri August 31, 2012

    This supersedes the version dated 31 Aug 2012. On page 1, first bullet is replaced. • Top 3 data/events • China – PMI is likely to see a marginal improvement • Indonesia and South Korea – Higher m/m inflation likely • Euro area – Sticky inflati...

  • 13-Aug-12 – Euro area enters ‘double-dip’ recession - Updated Sun August 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – High base effect likely masked price pressure • Indonesia – Widening current account deficit prompts FASBI rate hike • United States – July retail sales may have done better than expected • Market focus • Q2 GDP da...

  • 03-Aug-12 – ECB helps those who help themselves - Updated Thu August 2, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Asian rates – We remain bullish on Asian bonds • Indonesia – An anchor of stability • Taiwan – Food price inflation likely surged to near a four-year high • Market focus • ECB announces bond buying plan to restore confidenc...

  • 31-Jul-12 – Change we can believe in - Updated Mon July 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI is likely to stabilise while CPI drops • Indonesia – Seasonality to raise short-term inflation • South Korea – Lower inflation and slower trade flows expected • Market focus • Markets expect the Fed and ECB to ...

  • 18-Jul-12 – Bernanke holds firm - Updated Tue July 17, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Jobless rate to rise • Indonesia – We have a constructive outlook on IDR bonds • United States – Building activity to improve slowly • Market focus • Bernanke holds the committee line from the 20 June meeting ...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.