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  • Singapore clients more concerned about Indonesia than Thailand - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    Our Singapore client visits reveal a divergence in outlook for the Indonesian and Thai economies • Clients are worried about Indonesia’s slowing economy, policy inconsistencies, and a weakening IDR • Most of our clients are concerned that the BoT ...

  • Indonesia – Reality check - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    We lower our real GDP growth forecasts to 4.9% for 2015 and 5.3% for 2016 • We expect BI to cut the BI rate by 25bps in Q2-2015, before hiking by 25bps each in Q3 and Q4 • We maintain our USD-IDR forecast at 13,700 by mid-2015 and 13,500 by end-20...

  • Indonesia – What Indonesian clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Our Indonesian clients are more optimistic about business prospects this year than in 2014 • Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies • Most clients expect Bank Indonesia to either maintain or hike the BI rate i...

  • Indonesia – More fiscal flexibility for the government - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Fuel-subsidy reforms and the oil-price decline provide fiscal space for the government • BI is unlikely to cut the BI rate soon; we expect it to hike to 8.25% in H2-2015 • We forecast year-end inflation of 4.5% y/y, but acknowledge downside risk i...

  • ASEAN reforms as oil prices fall - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand take advantage of falling oil prices to reform their energy subsidies • While reforms are positive for the economies, falling oil prices are a short-term negative for Malaysia • Subsidy reform will strengthen the...

  • Indonesia – President Jokowi’s first challenges - Updated Tue November 11, 2014

    • Hiking fuel prices and dealing with a fragmented parliament are among Jokowi’s first challenges • We revise our inflation, BI rate, and GDP growth forecasts to reflect expected fuel-price hikes in Q4-2014 • Rates market is largely pricing in a f...

  • Oil price effects on Asia, the US and Latam - Updated Fri October 24, 2014

    • We estimate the macro impact of a sustained change in oil prices • The impact will likely be affected by whether supply or demand dynamics drive the move more • Lower oil costs will likely result in reverse stagflation • Our central case is for...

  • Indonesia – It may not be as bad as it seems - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    • Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are not as weak as they seem • We still project the BI rate at 8.00% by end-2014, but adjust the timing of the next rate hikes to Q2 and Q3 • A further rally in IDR bonds will be tactical and limited; we maintai...

  • Indonesia - What Indonesian clients think . . . - Updated Mon February 3, 2014

    • Our Indonesian clients are slightly more optimistic this year on business prospects • Our survey results suggest that sustaining revenue growth remains the key challenge • Indonesian clients are bearish on their local currency vs. USD in 2014,...

  • Indonesia – Recovering economic fundamentals - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    • We expect Indonesia’s economic fundamentals to improve in 2014 • We lower our end-2014 BI rate forecast to 8.00% from 8.25% • Trade balance is set to improve, driven more by import slowdown than by exports recovery ...

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