• Our Indonesian clients are more optimistic about business prospects this year than in 2014
• Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies
• Most clients expect Bank Indonesia to either maintain or hike the BI rate i...
Fuel-subsidy reforms and the oil-price decline provide fiscal space for the government
• BI is unlikely to cut the BI rate soon; we expect it to hike to 8.25% in H2-2015
• We forecast year-end inflation of 4.5% y/y, but acknowledge downside risk i...
Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand take advantage of falling oil prices to reform their energy subsidies
• While reforms are positive for the economies, falling oil prices are a short-term negative for Malaysia
• Subsidy reform will strengthen the...
• Hiking fuel prices and dealing with a fragmented parliament are among Jokowi’s first challenges
• We revise our inflation, BI rate, and GDP growth forecasts to reflect expected fuel-price hikes in Q4-2014
• Rates market is largely pricing in a f...
• We estimate the macro impact of a sustained change in oil prices
• The impact will likely be affected by whether supply or demand dynamics drive the move more
• Lower oil costs will likely result in reverse stagflation
• Our central case is for...
• Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are not as weak as they seem
• We still project the BI rate at 8.00% by end-2014, but adjust the timing of the next rate hikes to Q2 and Q3
• A further rally in IDR bonds will be tactical and limited; we maintai...
• Our Indonesian clients are slightly more optimistic this year on business prospects
• Our survey results suggest that sustaining revenue growth remains the key challenge
• Indonesian clients are bearish on their local currency vs. USD in 2014,...
• We expect Indonesia’s economic fundamentals to improve in 2014
• We lower our end-2014 BI rate forecast to 8.00% from 8.25%
• Trade balance is set to improve, driven more by import slowdown than by exports recovery
Parliament passed a non-expansionary budget for 2014, with a deficit target of 1.7% of nominal GDP
• We maintain our forecast of a deficit of 1.5% of nominal GDP
• Net supply target is IDR 205tn, or 12% lower than in 2013; stay Overweight duration...
• BI to focus more on stability, less on growth, even in election year 2014
• BI is likely to continue to tighten monetary policy, despite slowing inflation
• We estimate the new optimum real GDP growth rate at 5.5-6.0% in 2013 and 2014...
• Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising
• Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures
• External debt has risen in recent years, but ...
• Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are deteriorating; the market perceives that country risk is rising
• We revise our BoP, GDP growth and government budget deficit forecasts
• We expect the IDR and IDR bonds to weaken further on inflation risks...
If this is a public computer please consider checking this box carefully.
Please access our research via your Straight2Bank account
Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.
About Standard Chartered
Group investor relations
Group media centre
WB media centre
Copyright © 2015 Standard Chartered Bank