• Direction and spread signals are both positive for the second consecutive month
• Stay Positive on South Africa, but stay Neutral on Indonesia, due to valuations and fundamentals
• Colombia should receive hefty bond inflows in the months to co...
South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals
• Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling
• Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...
Our directional signal for EM bonds has turned neutral for the first time since October 2013
• Foreign holdings of EM bonds are stabilising; EM bond funds redemptions/outflows remain negative
• Our EM/DM spread signal is neutral; foreign investors...
Foreign mutual funds are selling EM bonds, but foreign structural investors are still buying
• Mexican and Indian markets are being bought: we maintain our Positive local bond outlook on INR bonds
• We now track local and foreign positions in Nige...
Foreigners are sellers of THB, TRY, ZAR and KRW bonds; buyers of IDR and MXN bonds
• Our carry-sensitivity indicator reaches new lows; EM/DM bond spreads to remain wide
• Foreign holdings of EM bonds are flat, suggesting that sovereign investors ...
Our directional signal for EM bonds has turned negative for the first time since July
• Outflows from EM funds are accelerating, hurting risk appetite and triggering EM bond selling
• Fundamentally, we are neutral on EM bonds, as we expect Fed QE ...
• We previously analysed aggregate foreign positioning in local currency in SC FIRST, assessed our own data sources for a more accurate fund-flow analysis, and generated insights on foreign-investor heterogeneity
• We can now generate insights on d...
• SC FIRST signals little active risk appetite on debt-ceiling worries
• Relative-value signal turns positive for ZAR bonds; we have raised our ZAR duration outlook to Overweight
• Direction signal is neutral for EM bonds for the third month, supp...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
Client conversations indicate that access issues for Indian bonds extend beyond capital controls, although index eligibility criteria appear to stipulate capital controls as the sole reason for exclusion
• We review these issues and compare India w...
Spread signal is positive for EM versus DM bonds as foreign investors become more carry-sensitive
• Relative-value signal turns positive for IDR bonds; we have raised our IDR duration outlook to Neutral
• Direction signal stays neutral for second...
Direction signal for EM bonds turns to neutral from negative; investors should cut EM underweights
• Spread signal turns positive for EM versus DM bonds as foreign investors become more carry-sensitive
• Relative value signal turns positive for I...
•Direction signal stays negative, in line with our overall views: EM bond yields to go higher
• Spread signal turns from negative to neutral: in high yielders, sell IDR bonds, buy NGN bonds
• Relative value signals are bearish Asian bonds: sell...
• US primary dealers hold as low a percentage of US corporate debt as at any point for the past 12 years
• We believe this is partly a response to regulations, including the Volcker Rule and Basel III
• This low ability to hold inventory explains ...
Our proprietary dataset on global EM local-currency bond flows shows a sharp slowdown in outflows
• Based on data reported for 44% of AUM in our sample, inflows resumed on Friday, reaching USD 66mn
• Stabilisation in China’s interbank market and F...
• The focus on EM bond fund flows has increased due to strong recent outflows
• We have built a proprietary dataset tracking daily flows, starting with global EM local bond funds and covering a larger dataset than the well-known weekly flows availa...
SC FIRST gives direction, spread and relative-value signals for EM bonds
• We get a negative direction signal for EM bonds on fund outflows, bond selling and negative FX outlook
• New this month: We estimate EM-fund cash levels and flows to help o...
• Brazil has removed the IOF to encourage debt portfolio inflows and slow the pace of BRL weakening
• Using our unique SC FIRST framework, we estimate the potential eventual impact of the removal at up to USD 30bn
• IOF implementation had a clear ...
• SC FIRST gives direction, spread and relative-value signals for EM bonds
• Our strongest signal for this month is for further EM/DM spread compression, a macro view we hold
• RV signal has now turned positive for MYR bonds: we extend the target...
The EM/DM spread widening predicted by SC FIRST signals took place; we now anticipate a narrowing
• A cleaner SC FIRST technical position and the prospect of Japanese inflows support this view
• SC FIRST continues to give a positive relative valu...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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