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  • SC FIRST – High-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    • Direction and spread signals are both positive for the second consecutive month • Stay Positive on South Africa, but stay Neutral on Indonesia, due to valuations and fundamentals • Colombia should receive hefty bond inflows in the months to co...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 10Y South African bonds - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals • Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling • Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...

  • SC FIRST – Neutral on EM bonds; stay long 10Y THB - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    Our directional signal for EM bonds has turned neutral for the first time since October 2013 • Foreign holdings of EM bonds are stabilising; EM bond funds redemptions/outflows remain negative • Our EM/DM spread signal is neutral; foreign investors...

  • SC FIRST – Improving sentiment towards INR bonds - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    Foreign mutual funds are selling EM bonds, but foreign structural investors are still buying • Mexican and Indian markets are being bought: we maintain our Positive local bond outlook on INR bonds • We now track local and foreign positions in Nige...

  • SC FIRST – EM/DM bond spreads to remain wide - Updated Mon December 16, 2013

    Foreigners are sellers of THB, TRY, ZAR and KRW bonds; buyers of IDR and MXN bonds • Our carry-sensitivity indicator reaches new lows; EM/DM bond spreads to remain wide • Foreign holdings of EM bonds are flat, suggesting that sovereign investors ...

  • SC FIRST – Negative directional signal for EM bonds - Updated Mon November 18, 2013

    Our directional signal for EM bonds has turned negative for the first time since July • Outflows from EM funds are accelerating, hurting risk appetite and triggering EM bond selling • Fundamentally, we are neutral on EM bonds, as we expect Fed QE ...

  • Estimating EM local fund beta - Updated Fri November 1, 2013

    • We previously analysed aggregate foreign positioning in local currency in SC FIRST, assessed our own data sources for a more accurate fund-flow analysis, and generated insights on foreign-investor heterogeneity • We can now generate insights on d...

  • SC FIRST – Stuck on the ceiling - Updated Thu October 10, 2013

    • SC FIRST signals little active risk appetite on debt-ceiling worries • Relative-value signal turns positive for ZAR bonds; we have raised our ZAR duration outlook to Overweight • Direction signal is neutral for EM bonds for the third month, supp...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • India – Index issues go beyond capital controls - Updated Fri September 27, 2013

    Client conversations indicate that access issues for Indian bonds extend beyond capital controls, although index eligibility criteria appear to stipulate capital controls as the sole reason for exclusion • We review these issues and compare India w...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.