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  • Brazil – Assessing the impact of IOF removal - Updated Wed June 5, 2013

    • Brazil has removed the IOF to encourage debt portfolio inflows and slow the pace of BRL weakening • Using our unique SC FIRST framework, we estimate the potential eventual impact of the removal at up to USD 30bn • IOF implementation had a clear ...

  • SC FIRST – EM/DM spreads to narrow further - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    • SC FIRST gives direction, spread and relative-value signals for EM bonds • Our strongest signal for this month is for further EM/DM spread compression, a macro view we hold • RV signal has now turned positive for MYR bonds: we extend the target...

  • 25-Jun-12 – Moody’s ups the heat on Europe - Updated Sun June 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth • Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds • Market focus • The Moody’s...

  • Opportunities in EUR-USD options, basis swaps - Updated Wed June 20, 2012

    Leveraged fund positioning in FX has rotated from USD-based to a combination of USD and EUR positioning, with positions now flat USD but short EUR; consensus position is short UST • EUR-USD short-dated volatility has collapsed since the Greek elect...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.