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  • 20-May – ECB comments to offset any PMI pick-up - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – SAFE data shows FX demand, but stability still favoured • Hong Kong – Inflation likely to have edged lower in April • South Africa – We see the SARB as hawkish, but on hold • Market focus • Euro-area economy is stro...

  • 12-May – China’s growth was likely weak in April [Correction] - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely reached a record high in March • Euro area – We expect GDP to have been buoyant in Q1 • Ghana – Monetary policy committee likely to hold prime rate at 21% • Market focus • April growth indices were...

  • China cuts policy rate by 25bps - Updated Sun May 10, 2015

    Event • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a broad-based policy rate cut on 10 May. It cut the deposit and lending rates by 25bps and lifted the deposit-rate ceiling to 1.5x the benchmark deposit rate from 1.3x, effective on 11 May. The on...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • PRD’s pain, China and ASEAN’s gain - Updated Tue May 5, 2015

    Companies in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) – China’s leading manufacturing hub – still face plenty of challenges, according to our sixth annual survey of manufacturers in the region. A labour shortage persists, and wages are likely to rise 8.4% this y...

  • Korea – No more cuts as signs of recovery emerge - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    • Benefits of previous rate cuts are emerging – housing market is picking up, KOSPI is rallying, credit is increasing and policy makers are becoming less dovish • We maintain our view of no rate change this year • We maintain our Neutral outlook o...

  • Taiwan – CBC to keep rates on hold in 2015 - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    • Data indicates continued economic recovery; strong industrial data offset weak export growth in Feb-Mar • We lower our 2015 inflation forecast to 0.4% y/y (from 0.8%) and raise our 2016 forecast to 1.8% (1.4%) • We think the CBC will keep the po...

  • 24-Apr – Awaiting another surprise from the BoJ - Updated Thu April 23, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Beware excessive euphoria • United States – Durable goods to show still-strong industry headwinds • Oil – US oil production set to fall heavily • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to add at least JPY10tn to the ass...

  • 17-Apr – USD-CNY forecast revisions - Updated Thu April 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – March export orders likely supported by rising tech demand • Malaysia – Inflation to increase from April • US – March CPI inflation data likely to support the Fed’s ‘no rush’ view • Market focus • We raise CNY fore...

  • 14-Apr – China’s growth likely slowed further - Updated Mon April 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – March unemployment rate was likely subdued • Euro area – Good momentum, but the ECB will continue with QE • US – Consumers likely returned to shops in March • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP growth may have slow...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Pausing before a likely leap - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    Our RGI rose 0.14% m/m in February on lower deposits in Hong Kong and slower cross-border flows • Likely inclusion of the Renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket could lead to faster internationalisation • The launch of China’s deposit insurance scheme i...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • Korea – Which came first, the BoK or the market? - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    • BoK cuts the base rate to a record-low 1.75%, against consensus • We expect no further easing this year • We recommend Underweight short-term FX weighting on the KRW and Neutral on KTB duration ...

  • Bank of Korea cuts base rate 25bps - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Korea (BoK) surprised the market today by cutting the base rate by 25bps to 1.75%, a record low – even lower than the level reached during the global financial crisis in 2009. The move was against the market consensus view of no ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Embracing reforms - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    • RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum • We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015 • Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...

  • 09-Mar – BoT to stay put on policy rate - Updated Sun March 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China - Weak consumer confidence suggests further deflationary pressure • Philippines - Export growth seen rebounding modestly • China – Little support for band widening near-term • Market focus • We reiterate our call that...

  • 05-Mar – US focus: From payrolls to pay rise - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Elevated TWD NEER to weigh on the TWD • South Korea – We expect a BoK rate cut in Q2-2015 • Malaysia – Exports likely slowed in January • Market focus • We see NFPs at 230,000 from 257,000 and unemployment at 5.6% ...

  • South Korea – We expect a rate cut in Q2-2015 - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Policy makers have indicated a rate cut is not imminent; BoK likely to keep rates on hold on 12 March Rate-cut pressure is building on negative data trend and easing by major central banks We now expect a rate cut in Q2-2015, versus our previous f...

  • 03-Mar – China’s political meetings in focus - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data to show pick-up in economic activity • Brazil – Tightening mode for now • Canada – BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again • Market focus • China’s all-important annual NPC an...

  • 25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year of the Goat - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX marke...



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20-May – ECB comments to offset any PMI...

Top 3 data/events • China – SAFE data shows FX demand, but stability still favoured • Hong Kong – Inflation likely to have edged lower in April • South Africa – We see the SARB as hawkish, but on hold • Market focus • Euro-area economy is strong, but some headwinds are returning • PMIs...

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