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  • 20-Mar – Colombia's gain is other EMs' pain - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Further heavy corporate FX selling in February • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain on an uptrend • Mexico – Our MFCI still shows tight monetary conditions • Market focus • Colombia’s weight in EM bond indices w...

  • 18-Feb – No change in the PBoC’s policy stance - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – CPI inflation likely edged up further in January • UK – BoE minutes to echo Inflation Report as unemployment falls to 7% • South Africa – January CPI inflation a key focus • Market focus • Credit growth was...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Asian FX PCA – AXJ to rally in Q4 on growth - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4 • We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies • We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...

  • 06-Aug – China: Slower growth, targeted boost - Updated Mon August 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Industrial production likely picked up in June • UK – BoE to release forward guidance details • US – Trade deficit likely narrowed marginally in June • Market focus • China’s July data is likely to show continue...

  • 08-May-2013 – The fight against fake trade - Updated Tue May 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – BNM likely to keep policy rate unchanged • South Korea – BoK will likely keep the policy rate on hold • UK – BoE expected to be on hold, given tentative signs of a recovery • Market focus • Aggregate adjustment t...

  • 07- May – Malaysia assets set to rally post-elections - Updated Mon May 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Squeeze higher in USD-CNY likely to be short-lived • China – Global demand for China’s exports likely to falter in Q2 • Malaysia – Trade surplus likely narrowed in March • Market focus • We expect bond inflows to pi...

  • 21-Mar – Cyprus, and hopes for Plan B - Updated Wed March 20, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – BNM expects steady growth, slightly higher inflation • Mongolia – Positive development on Strategic Foreign Investment Law • Euro area – IFO likely to confirm robust activity in Germany • Market focus • Cyprus fa...

  • 07-Feb-13 – Short-term risks to the yen trade - Updated Wed February 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Anaemic current account, improving sentiment • Malaysia – Weak export growth, stronger import growth in 2012 • Taiwan – The CNY market is launched • Market focus • We expect further weakness in the JPY in H1, with...

  • 08-Nov-12 – China’s 18th CCP congress begins - Updated Wed November 7, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Asia – Robust foreign inflows into local-currency government bonds • China – The recovery is under way • Malaysia – Negative export-growth momentum to persist • Market focus • The 18th national congress of the Chinese Comm...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 07-Aug-12 – China’s recovery still needs time - Updated Mon August 6, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Current account surplus is likely to narrow • Malaysia – We expect a marginal improvement in the trade balance • Germany – Production and export data probably moderated in June • Market focus • China’s growth indi...

  • 09-May-12 – Picking up the pace in China - Updated Tue May 8, 2012

    Key events and data • Indonesia – BI to keep interest rates on hold • Philippines – Export growth to remain positive • South Korea – BoK to keep interest rates unchanged Market focus • China’s economy shows tentative signs of recovery, but dow...



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Trade idea

20-Mar – Colombia's gain is other EMs' pain

Top 3 data/events • China – Further heavy corporate FX selling in February • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain on an uptrend • Mexico – Our MFCI still shows tight monetary conditions • Market focus • Colombia’s weight in EM bond indices will rise • This will likely have a...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.