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  • 02-Dec – Shift to Neutral duration on IDR bonds - Updated Sun December 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain status quo, reiterate AUD is elevated • Singapore – November PMI readings likely to remain firm • US – ISM manufacturing survey likely moderated • Market focus • Shift to a Neutral duratio...

  • 22-Nov – Client feedback: LA, London and Amsterdam - Updated Thu November 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We revise our SGS yield forecasts for 2014-16 • Singapore – Inflation likely rose slightly in October • Taiwan – Rising export orders may have boost industrial production • Market focus • Investors believe Fed...

  • 11-Sep – Asia policy on hold; recovery seen in H2 - Updated Tue September 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely edged higher to 5.8% in August • Japan – Core machinery orders likely rebounded in July • Mexico – Banxico delivers a cut and may not be done • Market focus • We expect the BoK, BI, BSP ...

  • 27-Aug – AXJ FX to fall further, but no crisis - Updated Mon August 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Rates – New 20Y SGS to fetch 3.3-3.4%, drive 20/30Y slope steeper • US – Home prices are still rising, but consumer confidence cools • Brazil – We expect the COPOM to accelerate pace of hikes to 75bps • Market focus • CA de...

  • 01-Jul – Macro 1: Financial-market sentiment 0 - Updated Sun June 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – We forecast gradual VND depreciation • Australia – RBA is likely to leave rate unchanged on AUD depreciation • US – Regional surveys signal a rise in the nationwide ISM index • Market focus • Recent financial-marke...

  • 26-Jun – PBoC tones down a bit - Updated Tue June 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS to auction SGD 1.8bn of 10Y SGS on 26 June • Taiwan – CBC likely to keep rates on hold for eighth straight quarter • United States – MBA mortgage data could be affected by rising yields • Market focus • Chin...

  • 14-Jun – Surprise BI rate hike - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance inflows likely rebounded after a weak March • Singapore – Export performance expected to have remained lacklustre • India – Wide trade deficit and weaker INR represent risks to our rate-cut call • M...

  • 13-Jun – Signals to watch for a turnaround in EM - Updated Wed June 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – May WPI likely to be marginally lower • Indonesia – BI measures to provide short-term market relief • United States – A still-elevated gap between confidence and hard data • Market focus • EM markets have sold off ...

  • 25-Apr – Foreigners extend support for IDR bonds - Updated Wed April 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ looks set to upgrade its inflation forecasts • Singapore – IP likely improved in March • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely continued to rebound • Market focus • EM bonds saw strong foreign inflows in Apri...

  • 11-Apr – MAS to keep FX policy unchanged - Updated Wed April 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Loan growth was likely strong in March • Euro area – February output to reflect French and German resilience • India – February industrial activity likely slumped again • Market focus • We maintain our long-held c...

  • 09 Apr – Korean markets are in the spotlight - Updated Mon April 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/ events • China – March likely to have seen another sizeable trade surplus • Indonesia – DMO targets IDR 60tn of treasury issuance in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to take a back seat given recent data • Market focus • Tensions on the Korea...

  • 14-Mar – Yen ‘Kuro-sion’ will be gradual - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Modest pick-up likely in January retail sales • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained steady in January • Asia – Strong foreign demand for KRW and THB bonds in February • Market focus • Kuroda is wide...

  • 25-Feb-13 – Taiwan’s economy is recovering - Updated Sun February 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely sluggish in January • Singapore – 30Y SGS reopening to price at 2.85-2.90% • US – Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony is centre stage • Market focus • Taiwan data is likely to show that the ec...

  • 31-Jan-13 – CPI inflation to bottom out in Asia - Updated Wed January 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI likely still in expansionary territory • South Korea – Expecting a rebound in trade flows • UK – Investors to scrutinise surveys, hoping for growth to return • Market focus • January CPI inflation...

  • 30-Jan-13 – Take profit on PHP bonds; buy GolSecs - Updated Tue January 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Korea – Vanguard rebalancing may weigh on local equity market • Taiwan – Q4 preliminary GDP to show a rebound in economic activity • Thailand – Current account balance remains fragile • Market focus • Malaysia and New Zeal...

  • 11-Jan-13 – Subsidy reforms, inflation and the RBI - Updated Thu January 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Short-term FX weighting lowered to Underweight • Ghana – Stunning 3Y bond auction results, 5Y offers better value • Euro area – ECB sees ‘positive contagion’ as markets do the job • Market focus • December WPI...

  • 08-Jan-13 – The pulse of Asia - Updated Mon January 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT will probably keep policy rates on hold • Malaysia – Rebound in trade activity is likely • Asia – Robust inflows into selected bond markets; stay long INR bonds • Market focus • The Asia macro picture sugges...

  • 11-Dec-12 – Top EM rates trades for 2013 - Updated Mon December 10, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – October IIP print likely to be the strongest so far in FY13 • Japan – Data releases likely to bring few surprises • United States – FOMC to end 2012 without a twist, but with a QE bang • Market focus • We remain b...

  • 10-Dec-12 – Turning ‘Twist’ into a super-sized QE3 - Updated Sun December 9, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI rate likely to remain unchanged in December • Philippines – Favourable base effect to support Q4 export growth • Malaysia – Industrial production likely slowed in October • Market focus • The US Federal Reser...

  • 20 Nov 12 – Signs of life in the East - Updated Mon November 19, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Export outlook is likely to remain gloomy • Nigeria – CBN seen on hold • UK – BoE minutes to indicate whether QE is likely to re-start soon • Market focus • The Philippines’ Q3 GDP to stay strong at 5.4% y/y on ro...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.