Growth is still expected to improve in 2013; however, we revise lower our projection to 3.2% from 3.8%
• Inflation dynamics are worrisome, even though we expect headline IPCA to slow in H2-2013
• We think the BCB needs to hike rates; however, mark...
• The new set of locks should be completed by 2015, and is a USD 5.25bn infrastructure project
• The third set of locks will accommodate post-Panamax tankers, ships that can hold up to 13,000 TEU
• Shipping companies, ports in North and South Amer...
The rates market has positioned itself for a cut in the near future, after the most recent Banxico minutes
• However, we maintain our view that Banxico will stay on hold in 2013
• We recommend a payer position on the 1Y TIIE curve at 4.58%; target...
Growth will likely improve in 2013, but risks are to the downside; the supply-demand mismatch continues
• The government will seek alternative fiscal measures to manage inflation; BCB to avoid hiking in 2013
• We recommend a Jan-15 DI receiver pos...
• We close out our short USD-PEN position after the gap higher in spot traded through our stop level
• BCRP’s reserve requirement hike has added fuel to the USD-PEN correction since 15 January
• Our fundamental bullish view on the PEN is unchanged...
• The correction back above 2.5660 in USD-PEN is an opportunity to establish short positions
• Peru is outperforming the region in terms of growth and strong capital account dynamics in 2013
• China’s emergence as a top export market makes Peru a ...
• Economic activity continues to expand significantly, with another strong year expected in 2013
• A strong pipeline of energy and mining projects fuels growth
• We think BCRP will employ more measures to counter PEN appreciation
• President Ol...
We lower our 2012 and 2013 growth projections to 1.1% and 3.8%, from 1.5% and 4.1%, respectively
• Nonetheless, we still foresee improved activity in 2013, and a steady closure of the output gap
• We see the COPOM on hold in 2013, but we remain ne...
Latam and AXJ FX total returns are converging, with AXJ increasingly catching up
• Latam FX gains are moderating due to weaker growth, official intolerance of local-currency appreciation
• China recovery, reserve diversification are supporting Asi...
• For the first time, President Chavez has designated a successor
• His announcement leads Venezuela into another period of political uncertainty
• Any adjustment to the exchange rate is likely to be delayed as a result of the unclear political b...
Our meetings in Brazil left us with a less optimistic view on 2013 growth
• If GDP growth falters, we would not be surprised to see the SELIC rate fall further
• The BRL should continue to be range-bound in the near term
• We maintain our recomme...
We revise 2012 GDP growth lower to 1.5%, while maintaining 2013 forecast at 4.1%
• We revise IPCA inflation slightly higher for 2012 and 2013 to 5.3% and 5.6%, respectively
• The minutes of the 10 October meeting show that the current rate-cutting...
Despite the recent spike in headline inflation, we look for no change to monetary policy near-term
• Recent currency strength is a function of global liquidity conditions
• New government is likely to push a reform agenda in 2013, focused on energ...
Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...
We recently revised our Latam FX forecasts in the wake of the Fed’s QE3 policy announcement
• While QE has historically been positive for Latam currencies, we observe clear diminishing returns
• Regional central banks will fight USD weakness, exc...
President Santos has announced plans to negotiate with the FARC movement
• The peace talks will be the government’s main focus in the months ahead
• The economy is growing at a trend pace, while inflationary pressures are generally muted
Top 3 data/events
• Philippines –Trade balance to benefit from export growth
• Hong Kong – August exports unlikely to show any signs of recovery
• Brazil – Focus on data ahead of key October COPOM meeting
• Market focus
• Higher-yielding marke...
Local investors show increased optimism about both external and domestic conditions
• Inflation is a source of uncertainty for 2013, rather than during 2012
• BCB tightly manages the BRL, which is expected to remain within the 2.00-2.10/USD range ...
Our base-case scenario shows supportive flows in both merchandise and financial accounts of the BoP
• Weaker global growth may hurt financial flows, but the outlook for FDI remains solid
• This is because Brazil has significant pent-up demand for...
Growth should remain close to 6% for 2012, outperforming the rest of the region
• Appreciation pressure on the PEN is set to continue; USD-PEN has hit a 15-year high
• We look for the central bank to stay on hold for the foreseeable future...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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