Growth is still expected to improve in 2013; however, we revise lower our projection to 3.2% from 3.8%
• Inflation dynamics are worrisome, even though we expect headline IPCA to slow in H2-2013
• We think the BCB needs to hike rates; however, mark...
• The new set of locks should be completed by 2015, and is a USD 5.25bn infrastructure project
• The third set of locks will accommodate post-Panamax tankers, ships that can hold up to 13,000 TEU
• Shipping companies, ports in North and South Amer...
The rates market has positioned itself for a cut in the near future, after the most recent Banxico minutes
• However, we maintain our view that Banxico will stay on hold in 2013
• We recommend a payer position on the 1Y TIIE curve at 4.58%; target...
Growth will likely improve in 2013, but risks are to the downside; the supply-demand mismatch continues
• The government will seek alternative fiscal measures to manage inflation; BCB to avoid hiking in 2013
• We recommend a Jan-15 DI receiver pos...
• We close out our short USD-PEN position after the gap higher in spot traded through our stop level
• BCRP’s reserve requirement hike has added fuel to the USD-PEN correction since 15 January
• Our fundamental bullish view on the PEN is unchanged...
• The correction back above 2.5660 in USD-PEN is an opportunity to establish short positions
• Peru is outperforming the region in terms of growth and strong capital account dynamics in 2013
• China’s emergence as a top export market makes Peru a ...
• Economic activity continues to expand significantly, with another strong year expected in 2013
• A strong pipeline of energy and mining projects fuels growth
• We think BCRP will employ more measures to counter PEN appreciation
• President Ol...
We lower our 2012 and 2013 growth projections to 1.1% and 3.8%, from 1.5% and 4.1%, respectively
• Nonetheless, we still foresee improved activity in 2013, and a steady closure of the output gap
• We see the COPOM on hold in 2013, but we remain ne...
Latam and AXJ FX total returns are converging, with AXJ increasingly catching up
• Latam FX gains are moderating due to weaker growth, official intolerance of local-currency appreciation
• China recovery, reserve diversification are supporting Asi...
• For the first time, President Chavez has designated a successor
• His announcement leads Venezuela into another period of political uncertainty
• Any adjustment to the exchange rate is likely to be delayed as a result of the unclear political b...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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