Growth is still expected to improve in 2013; however, we revise lower our projection to 3.2% from 3.8%
• Inflation dynamics are worrisome, even though we expect headline IPCA to slow in H2-2013
• We think the BCB needs to hike rates; however, mark...
Growth will likely improve in 2013, but risks are to the downside; the supply-demand mismatch continues
• The government will seek alternative fiscal measures to manage inflation; BCB to avoid hiking in 2013
• We recommend a Jan-15 DI receiver pos...
• Economic activity continues to expand significantly, with another strong year expected in 2013
• A strong pipeline of energy and mining projects fuels growth
• We think BCRP will employ more measures to counter PEN appreciation
• President Ol...
We lower our 2012 and 2013 growth projections to 1.1% and 3.8%, from 1.5% and 4.1%, respectively
• Nonetheless, we still foresee improved activity in 2013, and a steady closure of the output gap
• We see the COPOM on hold in 2013, but we remain ne...
• For the first time, President Chavez has designated a successor
• His announcement leads Venezuela into another period of political uncertainty
• Any adjustment to the exchange rate is likely to be delayed as a result of the unclear political b...
Our meetings in Brazil left us with a less optimistic view on 2013 growth
• If GDP growth falters, we would not be surprised to see the SELIC rate fall further
• The BRL should continue to be range-bound in the near term
• We maintain our recomme...
We revise 2012 GDP growth lower to 1.5%, while maintaining 2013 forecast at 4.1%
• We revise IPCA inflation slightly higher for 2012 and 2013 to 5.3% and 5.6%, respectively
• The minutes of the 10 October meeting show that the current rate-cutting...
Despite the recent spike in headline inflation, we look for no change to monetary policy near-term
• Recent currency strength is a function of global liquidity conditions
• New government is likely to push a reform agenda in 2013, focused on energ...
Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...
We recently revised our Latam FX forecasts in the wake of the Fed’s QE3 policy announcement
• While QE has historically been positive for Latam currencies, we observe clear diminishing returns
• Regional central banks will fight USD weakness, exc...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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