Choose the category below to
refine article list

Economics

Search Results

Results: 1 - 20 of 117 for 
Display 
 per page
Sort result by 
  • IGB valuations are attractive; buy 5Y IGBs - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    We believe recent pessimism on the IGB market is overdone • Improving INR outlook, near-term supply and stable policy rates are key positives for IGBs • We shift our IGB outlook to Positive from Neutral; buy 5Y IGBs at 8.95%; target: 8.65%, stop-l...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • 03-Apr – Indonesia continues to outperform EMs - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports likely rose sharply on a y/y basis in February • Philippines – Inflation likely remained on an uptrend • Germany – February factory orders expected to have risen, but only just • Market focus • Indonesia ...

  • India – RBI pauses for clarity - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    • RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation • A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut • We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...

  • 31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in in...

  • Sri Lanka – CBSL on an extended pause - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    2013 GDP surprises on the upside, and inflation continues to fall, justifying CBSL’s status quo on rates • Q4 GDP increase in contrast to weakness in proxy growth indicators • No change likely in policy rate until Q3-2014 the earliest • The T-...

  • 06-Mar – India – Polling time looms - Updated Wed March 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Bangladesh – Improving sentiment in the T-bond market • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in January • Taiwan – Exports likely rebounded sharply following seasonal effects • Market focus • India’s national electio...

  • Bangladesh - Riding out the storm - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    • Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively • We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability • A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...

  • Indonesia – It may not be as bad as it seems - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    • Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are not as weak as they seem • We still project the BI rate at 8.00% by end-2014, but adjust the timing of the next rate hikes to Q2 and Q3 • A further rally in IDR bonds will be tactical and limited; we maintai...

  • India – Finance minister walks a tightrope - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression • Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high • We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...

  • Sri Lanka – No surprises from the CBSL - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    No change in monetary policy in February • Economic data shows signs of improvement, inflation is still benign • CBSL is likely to remain on hold unless economic data shows significant weakness • T-bond market response is muted; we remain Neut...

  • India - Respecting the red line - Updated Wed February 12, 2014

    • FM is likely to meet the FY14 fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP, project a FY15 deficit at 4.2% • Spending cuts, higher non-tax revenues will allow adherence to the fiscal consolidation plan • Gross borrowing likely to be c.INR 5.8-6.0tn; w...

  • 10-Feb – India: Softer inflation amid growth pains - Updated Sun February 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – December export growth likely remained robust • Japan – December machinery orders likely slightly dropped m/m • US – Another lacklustre payroll print; but tapering is set to continue • Market focus • India Jan...

  • 06-Feb – Draghi is likely to downplay deflation risks - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal remains bullish for duration in February • India – Advance GDP estimate likely to show below-potential growth • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in December • Market focus • We do not expe...

  • Sri Lanka – Waiting for the rebound - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    We expect a marginal improvement in growth in 2014 to 7.0% (from an expected 6.8% in 2013) • The credit cycle may take some time to turn • The CBSL is on hold for now – low private-credit growth/inflation could trigger a further rate cut • The L...

  • India – RBI sweetens the bitter pill - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    • RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes • We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014 • Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...

  • 24-Jan – RBI looks likely to extend the pause - Updated Thu January 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Annual trade deficit likely widened in 2013 • Argentina – A rude awakening • Germany – Ifo survey likely to reflect a sharp rise in business activity • Market focus • Significant reduction in headline CPI, weak gro...

  • India – Monetary policy to get an anchor - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    • RBI committee report recommends using headline CPI as the nominal anchor for monetary policy • Recommendation is a step in the right direction; markets might interpret it as hawkish in the near term • Committee targets reducing CPI inflation to ...

  • 10-Jan – India’s inflation to slow; buy 5Y GoISecs - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Kenya – Policy rate expected to stay on hold until Q3 • Taiwan – TWD NEER weakness expected to aid export outlook • United States – A moderate increase in December payrolls is likely • Market focus • December CPI is likely...

  • 06-Jan – Bearish SEA, bullish NEA - Updated Sun January 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest export sales data likely to boost producers’ confidence • Australia – Trade balance expected to be in deficit for 23rd month • India – The SIGMA signal turns bullish for duration in January • Market focus • ...



Go to page
  

New User

Find out more about our research

Straight2Bank User

Please access our research via your Straight2Bank account

Trade idea

11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off following the parliamentary elections on 9...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.