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  • Bangladesh – Fiscal deficit may widen in FY16 - Updated Mon May 25, 2015

    FY16 budget likely to have expansionary bias; fiscal deficit may widen on investment revival • FY15 fiscal deficit could surprise positively on sharp cuts to non-development expenditure • We have a Positive outlook on T-bonds; widening fiscal defi...

  • Singapore clients more concerned about Indonesia than Thailand - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    Our Singapore client visits reveal a divergence in outlook for the Indonesian and Thai economies • Clients are worried about Indonesia’s slowing economy, policy inconsistencies, and a weakening IDR • Most of our clients are concerned that the BoT ...

  • 15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower BI rate - Updated Thu May 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI ...

  • Indonesia – Reality check - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    We lower our real GDP growth forecasts to 4.9% for 2015 and 5.3% for 2016 • We expect BI to cut the BI rate by 25bps in Q2-2015, before hiking by 25bps each in Q3 and Q4 • We maintain our USD-IDR forecast at 13,700 by mid-2015 and 13,500 by end-20...

  • 08-May – Greece: Low breakthrough prospects - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India –The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • Sri Lanka – CBSL is likely to keep rates on hold in May • China – Inflation likely remained subdued in April • Market focus • Expectations for a breakthrough ...

  • Thailand – BoT makes another surprise rate cut - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unexpectedly cut its policy rate again by 25bps to 1.50% at today’s meeting. We had expected it to keep the rate on hold. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-2 to cut the rate, aiming to boost the economy a...

  • 28-Apr – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold - Updated Mon April 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ likely to keep the cash rate at 3.50% in April • Japan – We expect the BoJ to ease further on 30 April • Euro area – Consumer confidence likely dipped in April • Market focus • We believe the BoT will kee...

  • Risks and opportunities 2015 - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    • We analyse seven risks and seven opportunities in detail, exploring potential triggers as well as economic and market implications. • We also asked our research heads to pick the three biggest risks and three most likely opportunities and find th...

  • 13-Apr – We expect no BI policy surprises - Updated Sun April 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China - We expect credit growth to have declined again in March • UK – CPI likely became negative in March • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • Market focus • We expect Bank Indonesia (BI) t...

  • India – A wait and watch policy - Updated Tue April 7, 2015

    • RBI maintains status quo on policy rates today; we think further rate cuts are still likely • We expect a 50bps reduction in the repo rate to 7% in FY16, equally split over the next two meetings • Stay Positive on IGBs; Buy 10Y IGBs (entry: 8.0...



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15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower...

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI to lower the BI rate by 25bps, but keep the...

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