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  • 27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher investment - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We ...

  • Hits and misses of the Indian budget - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • India will present the Union Budget on February 28. To analyse the budget and its market impact, we will hold two conference calls on Monday 02 March (05:00 GMT/10:30 AM Mumbai time and 14:00 GMT/09:00 AM New York time) with: Session 1: • Sami...

  • India – Budgeting for quality - Updated Thu February 19, 2015

    We expect the government to deliver on its FY15 fiscal deficit target of 4.1%; we project 3.6% for FY16 • Lower crude oil prices, recent hikes in excise tax may provide fiscal space to stimulate public investment • However, more radical steps are ...

  • Indonesia – Revising our forecasts - Updated Wed February 18, 2015

    • We lower our end-2015 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 4.5% to reflect lower oil prices • We now expect BI to cut the BI rate to 7.25% in Q1-2015, before hiking in H2 to 7.75% • We revise our 2015 current account deficit forecast to 2.8% of nomin...

  • Bank Indonesia cuts BI rate - Updated Tue February 17, 2015

    • Event - Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised the market today by cutting the BI rate by 25bps to 7.50% and the BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 25bps to 5.50%. This move was against the market consensus view of no change. BI kept the BI over...

  • India – Lower inflation paves the way for rate cuts - Updated Fri February 13, 2015

    The revised CPI, with a 2012 base, shows that inflationary pressure was lower than initially suggested • We revise our FY16 CPI inflation forecast to 5.4% from 5.8%; we expect a 75bps repo rate cut • We remain Positive on IGBs; buy 10Y IGBs (targ...

  • India – RBI adopts a wait-and-watch stance - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 7.75%, makes further action contingent on upcoming data • We expect another 25bps inter-meeting cut in March on benign inflation, further fiscal consolidation • We remain positive on IGBs; recommend short- and me...

  • 02-Feb – India: RBI likely to cut rates - Updated Sun February 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia − RBA likely to revert to a dovish stance, without cutting rates • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up moderately in January • US – ISM likely moderated on global headwinds, oil price rout • Market focus ...

  • Sri Lanka – Upholding pre-election promises - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    • Interim 2015 budget focuses on lowering cost of living; commitment to fiscal consolidation remains • Government expenditure shifts towards recurrent spending; public investment targets cut • New taxes introduced on the corporate sector and wealt...

  • 27-Jan – BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep policy rates unchanged • Australia – Q4-2014 inflation was likely lower at 1.8% y/y • US – Fed in ‘hibernation’; statement should repeat ‘patience’ • Market focus • We reiterate our call tha...



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27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher...

Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We expect the government to adhere to the...

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