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  • Risks and opportunities 2015 - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    • We analyse seven risks and seven opportunities in detail, exploring potential triggers as well as economic and market implications. • We also asked our research heads to pick the three biggest risks and three most likely opportunities and find th...

  • India – Looking ahead to 2015 - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts • Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts • We expect most of the government’s recentl...

  • 02-Sep – Indonesia: Focus on the fundamentals - Updated Mon September 1, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q2 GDP growth was likely in line with trend, at 3.1% y/y • Euro area and UK – Composite PMIs likely to have fallen • Turkey – CPI inflation likely to continue to disappoint • Market focus • Indonesia’s inflati...

  • Pakistan – FY15 budget targets a 4.9% deficit - Updated Thu June 12, 2014

    • The FY15 budget targets a deficit of 4.9% versus 5.8% in FY14 – the lowest in eight years • Public debt is targeted to fall to 58.7% in FY15 versus 62% in FY14 on lower subsidies and tax measures • Growth target of 5.1% in FY15 versus 4.1% in ...

  • India – RBI pauses for clarity - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    • RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation • A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut • We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...

  • Bangladesh - Riding out the storm - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    • Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively • We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability • A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...

  • India – Finance minister walks a tightrope - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression • Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high • We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...

  • India – RBI sweetens the bitter pill - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    • RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes • We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014 • Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • Bangladesh – Political climate heats up - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    The domestic macroeconomic environment is stable, suggesting that Bangladesh Bank (BB) will maintain a growth-supportive stance in FY14 (started 1 July 2013). We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for FY14, as we expect the external demand out...

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