• We analyse seven risks and seven opportunities in detail, exploring potential triggers as well as economic and market implications.
• We also asked our research heads to pick the three biggest risks and three most likely opportunities and find th...
We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts
• Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts
• We expect most of the government’s recentl...
• Top 3 data/events
• Australia – Q2 GDP growth was likely in line with trend, at 3.1% y/y
• Euro area and UK – Composite PMIs likely to have fallen
• Turkey – CPI inflation likely to continue to disappoint
• Market focus
• Indonesia’s inflati...
• The FY15 budget targets a deficit of 4.9% versus 5.8% in FY14 – the lowest in eight years
• Public debt is targeted to fall to 58.7% in FY15 versus 62% in FY14 on lower subsidies and tax measures
• Growth target of 5.1% in FY15 versus 4.1% in ...
• RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation
• A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut
• We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...
• Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively
• We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability
• A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...
• The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression
• Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high
• We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...
• RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes
• We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014
• Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...
• We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...
The domestic macroeconomic environment is stable, suggesting that Bangladesh Bank (BB) will maintain a growth-supportive stance in FY14 (started 1 July 2013). We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for FY14, as we expect the external demand out...
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