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  • India – RBI pauses for clarity - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    • RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation • A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut • We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...

  • Bangladesh - Riding out the storm - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    • Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively • We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability • A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...

  • India – Finance minister walks a tightrope - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression • Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high • We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...

  • India – RBI sweetens the bitter pill - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    • RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes • We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014 • Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...

  • Bangladesh – Political climate heats up - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    The domestic macroeconomic environment is stable, suggesting that Bangladesh Bank (BB) will maintain a growth-supportive stance in FY14 (started 1 July 2013). We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for FY14, as we expect the external demand out...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • India – A respite, but challenges persist - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    GDP growth is likely to improve in H2-FY14 (year ending March 2014). However, the macroeconomic environment will remain challenging due to higher inflation, rising policy rates, concerns about slippage on the FY14 fiscal deficit target ahead of next...

  • Sri Lanka – Showing resilience - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Sri Lanka is set to consolidate its strong H1-2013 performance (average GDP growth of 6.4%) in H2. We maintain our full-year growth forecast of 6.5%, despite the central bank‟s more optimistic projection of 7.5% premised on the global recovery in H2...

  • India – Index inclusion could be a game-changer - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    Cap on FII investment in GoISecs is a barrier to India’s inclusion in popular bond indices • Inclusion in the J.P Morgan GBI-EMGD index could attract c.USD 20-40bn into GoISecs over a year • If India were included in the GBI-EMGD, this would be a ...

  • India – New RBI governor outlines his priorities - Updated Thu September 5, 2013

    FX market stability is the immediate focus; RBI provides incentives for banks to raise more USDs • Containing inflation will remain a priority; increased transparency in monetary policy stressed • Financial-market reform and deepening financial m...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.