• Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively
• We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability
• A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...
• The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression
• Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high
• We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...
• RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes
• We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014
• Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...
The domestic macroeconomic environment is stable, suggesting that Bangladesh Bank (BB) will maintain a growth-supportive stance in FY14 (started 1 July 2013). We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for FY14, as we expect the external demand out...
• We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...
GDP growth is likely to improve in H2-FY14 (year ending March 2014). However, the macroeconomic environment will remain challenging due to higher inflation, rising policy rates, concerns about slippage on the FY14 fiscal deficit target ahead of next...
Sri Lanka is set to consolidate its strong H1-2013 performance (average GDP growth of 6.4%) in H2. We maintain our full-year growth forecast of 6.5%, despite the central bank‟s more optimistic projection of 7.5% premised on the global recovery in H2...
Cap on FII investment in GoISecs is a barrier to India’s inclusion in popular bond indices
• Inclusion in the J.P Morgan GBI-EMGD index could attract c.USD 20-40bn into GoISecs over a year
• If India were included in the GBI-EMGD, this would be a ...
FX market stability is the immediate focus; RBI provides incentives for banks to raise more USDs
• Containing inflation will remain a priority; increased transparency in monetary policy stressed
• Financial-market reform and deepening financial m...
• RBI leaves policy rates unchanged; a dovish policy statement focuses on currency stability
• Reversal of liquidity-tightening measures and a return to monetary policy easing depends on INR stability
• Presses for urgent action to reduce C/A def...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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