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  • India – RBI pauses for clarity - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    • RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation • A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut • We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...

  • Bangladesh - Riding out the storm - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    • Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively • We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability • A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...

  • India – Finance minister walks a tightrope - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression • Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high • We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...

  • India – RBI sweetens the bitter pill - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    • RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes • We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014 • Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...

  • Bangladesh – Political climate heats up - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    The domestic macroeconomic environment is stable, suggesting that Bangladesh Bank (BB) will maintain a growth-supportive stance in FY14 (started 1 July 2013). We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for FY14, as we expect the external demand out...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • India – A respite, but challenges persist - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    GDP growth is likely to improve in H2-FY14 (year ending March 2014). However, the macroeconomic environment will remain challenging due to higher inflation, rising policy rates, concerns about slippage on the FY14 fiscal deficit target ahead of next...

  • Sri Lanka – Showing resilience - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Sri Lanka is set to consolidate its strong H1-2013 performance (average GDP growth of 6.4%) in H2. We maintain our full-year growth forecast of 6.5%, despite the central bank‟s more optimistic projection of 7.5% premised on the global recovery in H2...

  • India – Index inclusion could be a game-changer - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    Cap on FII investment in GoISecs is a barrier to India’s inclusion in popular bond indices • Inclusion in the J.P Morgan GBI-EMGD index could attract c.USD 20-40bn into GoISecs over a year • If India were included in the GBI-EMGD, this would be a ...

  • India – New RBI governor outlines his priorities - Updated Thu September 5, 2013

    FX market stability is the immediate focus; RBI provides incentives for banks to raise more USDs • Containing inflation will remain a priority; increased transparency in monetary policy stressed • Financial-market reform and deepening financial m...

  • India – RBI focuses on INR stability with a hope of easing ahead - Updated Tue July 30, 2013

    • RBI leaves policy rates unchanged; a dovish policy statement focuses on currency stability • Reversal of liquidity-tightening measures and a return to monetary policy easing depends on INR stability • Presses for urgent action to reduce C/A def...

  • India – RBI acts decisively - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    RBI takes strong steps to tighten INR liquidity, reversing its recent monetary-easing stance • Decisive action could lead to a short-term rebound in the INR, but more measures are needed to tackle structural challenges • Rates market sentiment lik...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • India – RBI is cautious now, data-dependent later - Updated Mon June 17, 2013

    • The RBI leaves policy rates unchanged on recent INR weakness and upside risks to inflation • We expect no rate cut in July on marginally higher inflation; a rate cut in H2-FY14 is data-dependent • Supply pressure to offset support from rate-cut...

  • Bangladesh – On the path to fiscal consolidation - Updated Fri June 7, 2013

    • FY14 budget targets economic growth of 7.2%, CPI inflation of 7.0% and fiscal deficit of 4.6% (of GDP) • Revenue target of BDT 1.67tn seems aggressive, but tax-to-GDP ratio is improving • A 23% drop in gross (and c.30% in net) T-bond issuance wi...

  • India – FY14 GDP recovery to be sluggish - Updated Fri May 31, 2013

    • GDP growth appears to have bottomed out, but recovery remains shallow • We revise our FY14 GDP growth forecast to 5.5% from 6.0%; H2-FY14 likely to be better than H1 • Remain Neutral duration; buy 4Y GoISec (current: 7.35%; target: 7.15%; entry...

  • India – RBI’s focus should shift to easing liquidity - Updated Wed May 22, 2013

    Persistently wide banking-system liquidity deficit is limiting monetary policy transmission • To ensure comfortable liquidity, RBI may inject c.INR 1.2-1.4tn of primary liquidity via OMOs in FY14 • RBI OMOs are crucial to balancing GoISec demand/...

  • India – More monetary policy easing ahead - Updated Thu March 14, 2013

    We expect the RBI to cut the repo rate on 19 March; monetary policy guidance is likely to be cautious • The rates market is divided over a 25bps rate cut; stay Overweight GoISec duration • We recommend holding 10Y GoISecs; current: 7.86%, target: ...

  • Asia Focus - Transforming, rebalancing, outperforming - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    • The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...

  • India – A missed opportunity - Updated Thu February 28, 2013

    Lower fiscal deficit expectations depend on higher revenue generation rather than spending cuts • Optimistic revenue generation targets and subsidy slippage are key risks to FY14 fiscal deficit target • Gross market borrowing is at a record high o...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.