• We analyse seven risks and seven opportunities in detail, exploring potential triggers as well as economic and market implications.
• We also asked our research heads to pick the three biggest risks and three most likely opportunities and find th...
We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts
• Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts
• We expect most of the government’s recentl...
• Top 3 data/events
• Australia – Q2 GDP growth was likely in line with trend, at 3.1% y/y
• Euro area and UK – Composite PMIs likely to have fallen
• Turkey – CPI inflation likely to continue to disappoint
• Market focus
• Indonesia’s inflati...
• The FY15 budget targets a deficit of 4.9% versus 5.8% in FY14 – the lowest in eight years
• Public debt is targeted to fall to 58.7% in FY15 versus 62% in FY14 on lower subsidies and tax measures
• Growth target of 5.1% in FY15 versus 4.1% in ...
• RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation
• A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut
• We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...
• Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively
• We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability
• A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...
• The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression
• Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high
• We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...
• RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes
• We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014
• Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...
Sri Lanka is set to consolidate its strong H1-2013 performance (average GDP growth of 6.4%) in H2. We maintain our full-year growth forecast of 6.5%, despite the central bank‟s more optimistic projection of 7.5% premised on the global recovery in H2...
• We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...
GDP growth is likely to improve in H2-FY14 (year ending March 2014). However, the macroeconomic environment will remain challenging due to higher inflation, rising policy rates, concerns about slippage on the FY14 fiscal deficit target ahead of next...
The domestic macroeconomic environment is stable, suggesting that Bangladesh Bank (BB) will maintain a growth-supportive stance in FY14 (started 1 July 2013). We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for FY14, as we expect the external demand out...
Cap on FII investment in GoISecs is a barrier to India’s inclusion in popular bond indices
• Inclusion in the J.P Morgan GBI-EMGD index could attract c.USD 20-40bn into GoISecs over a year
• If India were included in the GBI-EMGD, this would be a ...
FX market stability is the immediate focus; RBI provides incentives for banks to raise more USDs
• Containing inflation will remain a priority; increased transparency in monetary policy stressed
• Financial-market reform and deepening financial m...
• RBI leaves policy rates unchanged; a dovish policy statement focuses on currency stability
• Reversal of liquidity-tightening measures and a return to monetary policy easing depends on INR stability
• Presses for urgent action to reduce C/A def...
RBI takes strong steps to tighten INR liquidity, reversing its recent monetary-easing stance
• Decisive action could lead to a short-term rebound in the INR, but more measures are needed to tackle structural challenges
• Rates market sentiment lik...
• Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...
• The RBI leaves policy rates unchanged on recent INR weakness and upside risks to inflation
• We expect no rate cut in July on marginally higher inflation; a rate cut in H2-FY14 is data-dependent
• Supply pressure to offset support from rate-cut...
• FY14 budget targets economic growth of 7.2%, CPI inflation of 7.0% and fiscal deficit of 4.6% (of GDP)
• Revenue target of BDT 1.67tn seems aggressive, but tax-to-GDP ratio is improving
• A 23% drop in gross (and c.30% in net) T-bond issuance wi...
• GDP growth appears to have bottomed out, but recovery remains shallow
• We revise our FY14 GDP growth forecast to 5.5% from 6.0%; H2-FY14 likely to be better than H1
• Remain Neutral duration; buy 4Y GoISec (current: 7.35%; target: 7.15%; entry...
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