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  • NEA-SEA divergence to increase, USD to strengthen - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    We expect NEA to outperform, SEA to underperform on Fed tapering due to C/A, cyclicality of investors • USD should rally against SEA, commodity currencies, JPY and CHF; EUR and GBP should hold up better • Asian bond yields should peak in Q1; INR...

  • BI keeps the BI rate unchanged - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    • Event • Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI rate unchanged at 7.50% at its policy meeting in December. It also kept the BI overnight lending facility (repo) rate at 7.50% and the BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate at 5.75%; the repo rate is ...

  • 02-Dec – Shift to Neutral duration on IDR bonds - Updated Sun December 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain status quo, reiterate AUD is elevated • Singapore – November PMI readings likely to remain firm • US – ISM manufacturing survey likely moderated • Market focus • Shift to a Neutral duratio...

  • 22-Nov – Client feedback: LA, London and Amsterdam - Updated Thu November 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We revise our SGS yield forecasts for 2014-16 • Singapore – Inflation likely rose slightly in October • Taiwan – Rising export orders may have boost industrial production • Market focus • Investors believe Fed...

  • Indonesia – BI unexpectedly hikes rates - Updated Tue November 12, 2013

    Event – Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly hiked the BI rate by 25bps to 7.50% at its November policy meeting. It also hiked the overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 25bps to 5.75% and the repo rate by 25bps to 7.50%. The FASBI rate is the lower...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • Indonesia – A non-expansionary budget for 2014 - Updated Mon October 28, 2013

    Parliament passed a non-expansionary budget for 2014, with a deficit target of 1.7% of nominal GDP • We maintain our forecast of a deficit of 1.5% of nominal GDP • Net supply target is IDR 205tn, or 12% lower than in 2013; stay Overweight duration...

  • Turning bullish on the IDR and IDR bonds - Updated Thu October 24, 2013

    We are raising our short- and medium-term FX weightings on the IDR to Overweight from Neutral • An improving trade balance and a proactive BI to support the IDR • We raise duration outlook on IDR bonds to Overweight from Neutral on FX stabilisati...

  • Singapore – MAS keeps monetary policy unchanged - Updated Mon October 14, 2013

    MAS keeps the SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged • Leveraged funds: Sell SGD-THB, target: 24.35, stop: 25.65; receive SGD 5Y IRS, target: 1.00%, stop: 1.80% • Real-money funds: Stay Neutral on the SGD; enter a 5Y/10Y SGS flatte...

  • Indonesia – A new, less rosy, equilibrium - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    The Fed‟s decision to delay QE tapering, possibly until Q1-2014, has given Indonesian policy makers much needed breathing room. Indonesia‟s economic fundamentals are worse than they were 12 months ago. Without a sharp rebound in prices of commoditie...

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