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  • NEA-SEA divergence to increase, USD to strengthen - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    We expect NEA to outperform, SEA to underperform on Fed tapering due to C/A, cyclicality of investors • USD should rally against SEA, commodity currencies, JPY and CHF; EUR and GBP should hold up better • Asian bond yields should peak in Q1; INR...

  • BI keeps the BI rate unchanged - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    • Event • Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI rate unchanged at 7.50% at its policy meeting in December. It also kept the BI overnight lending facility (repo) rate at 7.50% and the BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate at 5.75%; the repo rate is ...

  • 02-Dec – Shift to Neutral duration on IDR bonds - Updated Sun December 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain status quo, reiterate AUD is elevated • Singapore – November PMI readings likely to remain firm • US – ISM manufacturing survey likely moderated • Market focus • Shift to a Neutral duratio...

  • 22-Nov – Client feedback: LA, London and Amsterdam - Updated Thu November 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We revise our SGS yield forecasts for 2014-16 • Singapore – Inflation likely rose slightly in October • Taiwan – Rising export orders may have boost industrial production • Market focus • Investors believe Fed...

  • Indonesia – BI unexpectedly hikes rates - Updated Tue November 12, 2013

    Event – Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly hiked the BI rate by 25bps to 7.50% at its November policy meeting. It also hiked the overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 25bps to 5.75% and the repo rate by 25bps to 7.50%. The FASBI rate is the lower...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • Indonesia – A non-expansionary budget for 2014 - Updated Mon October 28, 2013

    Parliament passed a non-expansionary budget for 2014, with a deficit target of 1.7% of nominal GDP • We maintain our forecast of a deficit of 1.5% of nominal GDP • Net supply target is IDR 205tn, or 12% lower than in 2013; stay Overweight duration...

  • Turning bullish on the IDR and IDR bonds - Updated Thu October 24, 2013

    We are raising our short- and medium-term FX weightings on the IDR to Overweight from Neutral • An improving trade balance and a proactive BI to support the IDR • We raise duration outlook on IDR bonds to Overweight from Neutral on FX stabilisati...

  • Singapore – MAS keeps monetary policy unchanged - Updated Mon October 14, 2013

    MAS keeps the SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged • Leveraged funds: Sell SGD-THB, target: 24.35, stop: 25.65; receive SGD 5Y IRS, target: 1.00%, stop: 1.80% • Real-money funds: Stay Neutral on the SGD; enter a 5Y/10Y SGS flatte...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • Indonesia – A new, less rosy, equilibrium - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    The Fed‟s decision to delay QE tapering, possibly until Q1-2014, has given Indonesian policy makers much needed breathing room. Indonesia‟s economic fundamentals are worse than they were 12 months ago. Without a sharp rebound in prices of commoditie...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Singapore – MAS expected to maintain the status quo - Updated Fri September 27, 2013

    We maintain our long-held call for the MAS to keep its policy stance unchanged; risk is of minor easing • Ongoing restructuring to keep MAS focused on inflation; current SGD NEER level offers loosening room • Leveraged funds: Sell SGD-THB, target ...

  • Indonesia – BI hikes BI rate again - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    Event – Bank Indonesia (BI) hiked the BI rate by 25bps to 7.25% at its policy meeting on 12 September. The central bank also hiked the overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 25bps to 5.50%, and the repo rate by 25bps to 7.25%. The FASBI rate is ...

  • 11-Sep – Asia policy on hold; recovery seen in H2 - Updated Tue September 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely edged higher to 5.8% in August • Japan – Core machinery orders likely rebounded in July • Mexico – Banxico delivers a cut and may not be done • Market focus • We expect the BoK, BI, BSP ...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Indonesia – Finally, BI hikes rates again - Updated Fri August 30, 2013

    • Bank Indonesia hikes the BI rate by 50bps to 7.00% • We revise our interest rate and inflation forecasts • We see the rate hikes as a short-term positive, but not sufficient to stabilise the IDR...

  • Indonesia – BI hikes interest rates - Updated Thu August 29, 2013

    • Event – Bank Indonesia (BI) hiked the BI rate by 50bps to 7.00% at its extraordinary Board of Governors meeting on 29 August. It hiked the overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate, the lower limit of its interest rate corridor, by 50bps to 5.25%; a...

  • IDR to fall further, but no currency crisis - Updated Tue August 27, 2013

    We raise sharply our USD-IDR forecasts through 2014 on the C/A deficit, over-valuation, reserves • Indonesia needs higher interest rates to stabilise the IDR; this is unlikely near-term • However, BI has enough FX reserves to manage worst-case cap...

  • 27-Aug – AXJ FX to fall further, but no crisis - Updated Mon August 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Rates – New 20Y SGS to fetch 3.3-3.4%, drive 20/30Y slope steeper • US – Home prices are still rising, but consumer confidence cools • Brazil – We expect the COPOM to accelerate pace of hikes to 75bps • Market focus • CA de...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.