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  • NEA-SEA divergence to increase, USD to strengthen - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    We expect NEA to outperform, SEA to underperform on Fed tapering due to C/A, cyclicality of investors • USD should rally against SEA, commodity currencies, JPY and CHF; EUR and GBP should hold up better • Asian bond yields should peak in Q1; INR...

  • Rates outlook and strategy 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    • EM rates should have an inflexion point around tapering; EM bearish into tapering, followed by recovery • Our total-return analysis identifies Indonesia, India and Brazil as the favourites for 2014 • Pre-tapering: Bond investors should buy 3Y KT...

  • BI keeps the BI rate unchanged - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    • Event • Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI rate unchanged at 7.50% at its policy meeting in December. It also kept the BI overnight lending facility (repo) rate at 7.50% and the BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate at 5.75%; the repo rate is ...

  • 02-Dec – Shift to Neutral duration on IDR bonds - Updated Sun December 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain status quo, reiterate AUD is elevated • Singapore – November PMI readings likely to remain firm • US – ISM manufacturing survey likely moderated • Market focus • Shift to a Neutral duratio...

  • 22-Nov – Client feedback: LA, London and Amsterdam - Updated Thu November 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We revise our SGS yield forecasts for 2014-16 • Singapore – Inflation likely rose slightly in October • Taiwan – Rising export orders may have boost industrial production • Market focus • Investors believe Fed...

  • Buy 10Y IDR bonds on supply, BI’s proactive stance - Updated Fri November 15, 2013

    We recommend tactically buying 10Y IDR bonds at 8.30%; target: 7.50%, stop-loss: 8.70% • We see value in the 10Y after its 160bps rise in November; near-term supply outlook is constructive • Fundamentals are improving as BI shifts priority to ens...

  • Indonesia – BI unexpectedly hikes rates - Updated Tue November 12, 2013

    Event – Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly hiked the BI rate by 25bps to 7.50% at its November policy meeting. It also hiked the overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 25bps to 5.75% and the repo rate by 25bps to 7.50%. The FASBI rate is the lower...

  • SGS – Take profit on 5Y SGD IRS receiver - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    We close our 5Y SGD IRS receiver and the 5Y/10Y SGS flattener; near-term upside risks to yields remain • Stay Neutral duration on SGS, given the delayed start of QE tapering, manageable near-term supply • The risk of indigestion will be significan...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • Indonesia – A non-expansionary budget for 2014 - Updated Mon October 28, 2013

    Parliament passed a non-expansionary budget for 2014, with a deficit target of 1.7% of nominal GDP • We maintain our forecast of a deficit of 1.5% of nominal GDP • Net supply target is IDR 205tn, or 12% lower than in 2013; stay Overweight duration...



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