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  • The neutral rate – Has it really fallen? - Updated Thu June 12, 2014

    We see US interest rates staying low for some time but the neutral rate may not be permanently lower • Slower potential GDP growth and the shift towards services point to a lower neutral rate • But deleveraging, low investment and weak productivit...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Sri Lanka – Pessimism is overdone - Updated Mon July 8, 2013

    • Stable FX reserves offset the impact of Moody’s sovereign outlook revision on Sri Lankan markets • Steady growth and lower inflation underpin our constructive outlook on Sri Lanka • Inflation is likely to pick up in Q4, but the absence of furthe...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • Bangladesh – On the path to fiscal consolidation - Updated Fri June 7, 2013

    • FY14 budget targets economic growth of 7.2%, CPI inflation of 7.0% and fiscal deficit of 4.6% (of GDP) • Revenue target of BDT 1.67tn seems aggressive, but tax-to-GDP ratio is improving • A 23% drop in gross (and c.30% in net) T-bond issuance wi...

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