• We analyse seven risks and seven opportunities in detail, exploring potential triggers as well as economic and market implications.
• We also asked our research heads to pick the three biggest risks and three most likely opportunities and find th...
• Inequality is rising within most countries, though the data may exaggerate the increase
• Inequality between countries is falling and the numbers in absolute poverty have declined significantly
• New technology is favouring high-skilled workers ...
• Trade is set to accelerate, but patterns will change
• Faster GDP growth in Europe and the US will boost world trade, after a weak performance in 2012-13.
• We believe the trade-GDP growth ratio can return to the 1.3-1.5 range.
• Recent agree...
In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1).
We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...
Sri Lanka is set to consolidate its strong H1-2013 performance (average GDP growth of 6.4%) in H2. We maintain our full-year growth forecast of 6.5%, despite the central bank‟s more optimistic projection of 7.5% premised on the global recovery in H2...
The domestic macroeconomic environment is stable, suggesting that Bangladesh Bank (BB) will maintain a growth-supportive stance in FY14 (started 1 July 2013). We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for FY14, as we expect the external demand out...
• We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’?
• We present a new St...
• Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...
• CBSL has lowered policy rates by 50bps each on growth concerns; likely to remain stable until Q1-2014
• IMF cautions that inflation is still a risk but its pace is not “unduly worrying”
• T-bond yields to remain range-bound on supply concerns; ...
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Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.
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