In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1).
We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...
The domestic macroeconomic environment is stable, suggesting that Bangladesh Bank (BB) will maintain a growth-supportive stance in FY14 (started 1 July 2013). We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for FY14, as we expect the external demand out...
• We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...
Sri Lanka is set to consolidate its strong H1-2013 performance (average GDP growth of 6.4%) in H2. We maintain our full-year growth forecast of 6.5%, despite the central bank‟s more optimistic projection of 7.5% premised on the global recovery in H2...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’?
• We present a new St...
• Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...
• CBSL has lowered policy rates by 50bps each on growth concerns; likely to remain stable until Q1-2014
• IMF cautions that inflation is still a risk but its pace is not “unduly worrying”
• T-bond yields to remain range-bound on supply concerns; ...
• The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...
Top 3 data/events
• Euro area – Eurostat business surveys to improve, but from low level
• Sri Lanka – CBSL expected to maintain policy rates
• Australia – Trade likely remained in deficit for an eleventh straight month
• Market focus
The economy is stronger heading into 2013; we forecast GDP growth at 7.2%, CPI inflation at 7.5%
• Government maintains fiscal consolidation, cuts the budget deficit target to 5.8% of GDP in 2013
• Easing inflation and policy rates amid balanced d...
• Asia is still partly insulated from the West – in much of the region, domestic demand has grown more strongly than exports in 2012. However, Asia has been slowing in recent months. We expect growth to turn up in H1-2013, and we forecast better gro...
• We expect Bangladesh Bank to remain cautious and keep its benchmark policy rate at 7.75%
• Gradual deceleration in M3 growth suggests inflationary pressures are easing
• Bangladesh Bank governor’s pre-policy statement means a policy rate hike ca...
• Central bank kept rates on hold at 13 June meeting, citing a slowdown in credit growth as the key reason
• We raise our inflation estimate to 7.2% from 6.7%; growth concerns outweigh inflation
• We remain optimistic on the LKR in the medium ter...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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