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  • The Scotland referendum: Grasping the thistle - Updated Fri May 2, 2014

    An independent Scotland would be negative for UK trade, but positive for the UK’s fiscal position • GBP weakness on a ‘Yes’ would be temporary, but option vol looks cheap ahead of the referendum • The margin between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes narrowed ...

  • 29-Apr – CNY: Assessing 2012 risks - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events 28 April 2014 • Japan – BoJ likely to stay put; industrial production likely rebounded • South Korea – IP backed by strong exports • Euro area – Rise in April CPI may alleviate policy-action pressure • Market focus • Ch...

  • UK – On the up - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • UK activity remains buoyant: we forecast GDP growth of 0.8-0.9% q/q in H1-2014 • BoE policy makers are split over how much slack remains - and hence, at what point rates should rise • Near-term inflation pressures have eased, but wage growth i...

  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • 15-Apr – Draghi puts EUR strength in the crosshairs - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth momentum likely softened in Q1 • Euro area – CPI final print likely to match the preliminary data • US – Yellen to clarify view on long-run inflation, growth and FFTR • Market focus • Draghi’s IMF comments c...

  • 14-Apr – AXJ FX revisions amid divergent volatility - Updated Sun April 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Inflation likely moved up in March • Germany – ZEW may show investors shrugging off uncertainties • US – Not necessarily a spring rebound for core retail sales • Market focus • Weaker China data and reviving bond i...

  • 09-Apr – China – More stimulus needed - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate was likely 6.0% in March • Malaysia – External demand likely supported IP in February • UK – BoE may stay on hold while MPC digests flurry of positive data • Market focus • Policy is shifting ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI unaffected by FX volatility - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 6.8% y/y in February; strong momentum likely carried over to March, despite volatile CNY • Appointment of clearing banks in Europe will boost Renminbi usage; deposits in Taiwan keep growing • Higher CNY volatility will be the post band-...

  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • 04-Apr – March US NFPs: Gradual thawing - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • INR – RBI’s Rajan signals INR not far from ‘fair value’ • Taiwan – Export gains; inflation accelerates • Germany – Cooling industrial production data reflect stability • Market focus • We see March payrolls below the 20...



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