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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • Q3 – Stability tends to create instability - Updated Fri June 20, 2014

    • Overview – Cross-asset volatility remains extraordinarily low due to a combination of persistent global economic slack, muted inflation and a collective G5 (US, euro area, UK, Japan and Switzerland) policy put that has all but eliminated major eco...

  • 29-Apr – CNY: Assessing 2012 risks - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events 28 April 2014 • Japan – BoJ likely to stay put; industrial production likely rebounded • South Korea – IP backed by strong exports • Euro area – Rise in April CPI may alleviate policy-action pressure • Market focus • Ch...

  • A delicate balance - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    • Our theme for 2014 centres on the balance between headwinds – such as a stronger US dollar (USD), higher US yields and larger supply surpluses – and tailwinds in the form of an improving global economic outlook and a continuing super-cycle. Broad ...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • Signs are pointing up - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Improving macroeconomic data has nudged commodity prices higher, and we expect this trend to continue. • Broad indicators like industrial production, purchasing managers’ indices and fund flows support our view that commodities will see bigger upsi...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

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