• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
• Overview – Cross-asset volatility remains extraordinarily low due to a combination of persistent global economic slack, muted inflation and a collective G5 (US, euro area, UK, Japan and Switzerland) policy put that has all but eliminated major eco...
• Top 3 data/events 28 April 2014
• Japan – BoJ likely to stay put; industrial production likely rebounded
• South Korea – IP backed by strong exports
• Euro area – Rise in April CPI may alleviate policy-action pressure
• Market focus
• Our theme for 2014 centres on the balance between headwinds – such as a stronger US dollar (USD), higher US yields and larger supply surpluses – and tailwinds in the form of an improving global economic outlook and a continuing super-cycle. Broad ...
Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...
Improving macroeconomic data has nudged commodity prices higher, and we expect this trend to continue.
• Broad indicators like industrial production, purchasing managers’ indices and fund flows support our view that commodities will see bigger upsi...
Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...
• Overview - With growth indicators moderating, even in the US, we may see further volatility in Q2 before a more sustained global recovery in H2. We recommend corporates use CNH rather than CNY NDFs for longer-dated CNY/CNH exposure, as well as foc...
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