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  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • United States – Tapering looming, yields to rise more - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    We expect the Fed to reduce its QE programme by USD 10bn in September, but this is still a close call • Soft data is likely over the summer, but recent strong job gains are enough for the Fed to proceed • QE will likely end in Q2-2014; the Fed is ...

  • United States – Fed likely to emphasise gradualism - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile • We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date • The underlying momentum is softe...

  • Fixing the developed countries – US leads the way - Updated Thu May 23, 2013

    Our scorecard suggests the US has now largely recovered from the 2008 crisis; only a ‘lost half-decade’ • Japan and the UK are behind; Spain still has a long way to go • We focus on progress in balance sheet adjustment and the effectiveness of mon...

  • US – No disaster for Treasuries when Fed exits QE - Updated Mon May 13, 2013

    • The Fed laid out its exit strategy principles in mid-2011 but may be considering a more passive approach • We have used these principles to project the development of the size of its SOMA portfolio over time • Our projections show that the Fed c...

  • 10-May – The rise of the doves - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Modest recovery likely continued in April • India – Slower CPI increases expected • United States – Fed speakers are unlikely to surprise the market • Market focus • BoK’s surprise decision to cut 25bps is the start...

  • Q2 – Is it safe? - Updated Mon April 15, 2013

    • Overview - With growth indicators moderating, even in the US, we may see further volatility in Q2 before a more sustained global recovery in H2. We recommend corporates use CNH rather than CNY NDFs for longer-dated CNY/CNH exposure, as well as foc...

  • 26-Feb-13 – The new BoJ governor is… - Updated Mon February 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – A populist budget as housing issues take a backseat • Taiwan – Latest IP and leading index to show economy is recovering • United States – Listen for hints when Ben speaks before Congress • Market focus • Expe...

  • 20-Feb-13 – Asian economies show resilience - Updated Tue February 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • North Asia – New overseas inflows to local equities • Euro area – Flash PMI readings to improve further, led by Germany • United States – Fed minutes may shed more light on timing of QE’s end • Market focus • We expect a...

  • Q1 – Flows versus fundamentals - Updated Thu January 24, 2013

    Overview – The year ahead should see stronger growth, boosting higher-beta assets and currencies, but the path will not be linear. We expect volatility in H1 before a more self-sustaining recovery in H2. We recommend Asian exporters maintain neutral...

  • 06-Dec-2012 – We expect a debt slope not a debt cliff - Updated Wed December 5, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Government wins the vote on FDI in multi-brand retail • Malaysia – October likely to have seen a consolidation • Taiwan – Exports likely to have risen on year-end holiday demand • Market focus • The fiscal slope is...

  • Q4 – Diversification - Updated Mon October 8, 2012

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodities outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 02-Aug-12 – FOMC keeps options wide open [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed August 1, 2012

    This supersedes the version dated 02 August 2012. Amends key data/events today table. • Top 3 data/events • Grains – Market rallies on dry US weather • Euro area – Draghi could announce bond buying for Spain, Italy • United States – US ADP is...

  • Q3 – Catching the turn - Updated Wed July 11, 2012

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodities outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • QE in a low-yield world - Updated Tue June 19, 2012

    We expect the Fed to extend Operation Twist at the 20 June FOMC meeting • QE is in reserve in case growth slows more or deflation threatens • UK is set to do more QE as well as credit easing • BoJ needs to target QE better by buying longer maturi...

  • United States – We expect OT2 not QE3 - Updated Mon June 18, 2012

    We expect an extension of Operation Twist, but the threshold for QE3 has not been crossed • Growth is not slow enough and core inflation is not low enough • We remain neutral duration on UST ahead of the FOMC meeting • Extending Operation Twist i...

  • 04 May – European voters have their say - Updated Thu May 3, 2012

    • Elections in France, Greece, Germany and Italy add to uncertainty • Rising European unemployment is raising the political temperature • UK needs more QE soon, but the BoE will likely wait another month • China’s economy still on track to troug...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.