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  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • United States – Tapering looming, yields to rise more - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    We expect the Fed to reduce its QE programme by USD 10bn in September, but this is still a close call • Soft data is likely over the summer, but recent strong job gains are enough for the Fed to proceed • QE will likely end in Q2-2014; the Fed is ...

  • United States – Fed likely to emphasise gradualism - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile • We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date • The underlying momentum is softe...

  • Fixing the developed countries – US leads the way - Updated Thu May 23, 2013

    Our scorecard suggests the US has now largely recovered from the 2008 crisis; only a ‘lost half-decade’ • Japan and the UK are behind; Spain still has a long way to go • We focus on progress in balance sheet adjustment and the effectiveness of mon...

  • US – No disaster for Treasuries when Fed exits QE - Updated Mon May 13, 2013

    • The Fed laid out its exit strategy principles in mid-2011 but may be considering a more passive approach • We have used these principles to project the development of the size of its SOMA portfolio over time • Our projections show that the Fed c...

  • 10-May – The rise of the doves - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Modest recovery likely continued in April • India – Slower CPI increases expected • United States – Fed speakers are unlikely to surprise the market • Market focus • BoK’s surprise decision to cut 25bps is the start...

  • Q2 – Is it safe? - Updated Mon April 15, 2013

    • Overview - With growth indicators moderating, even in the US, we may see further volatility in Q2 before a more sustained global recovery in H2. We recommend corporates use CNH rather than CNY NDFs for longer-dated CNY/CNH exposure, as well as foc...

  • 26-Feb-13 – The new BoJ governor is… - Updated Mon February 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – A populist budget as housing issues take a backseat • Taiwan – Latest IP and leading index to show economy is recovering • United States – Listen for hints when Ben speaks before Congress • Market focus • Expe...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.