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  • MENA – Navigating headwinds - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    We expect lower oil prices to directly impact the GCC’s growth outlook • Recent oil-price decline is a reminder that government expenditure cannot rise indefinitely • Energy-subsidy reform should become a priority given reduced fiscal heardroom...

  • Pakistan – SBP forecasts moderate inflation - Updated Tue July 22, 2014

    The SBP maintains rate at 10% on a positive growth outlook due to strong credit demand and FDI inflows • It forecasts inflation of 8% in FY15 on a stable PKR and a slowdown in money-supply growth • We expect the SBP to cut the rate by 100bps in H2...

  • Middle East and North Africa Focus – Adjusting to reality - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • Hydrocarbon-based economies are using their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies to reduce long-term risks. Oil importers are constrained by high domestic subsidy bills and weak investment; this is hampering econ...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • 08-Oct – My way or the Beltway - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Egypt – EGP strengthens on large aid flows • Europe – Positive industrial production data in both UK and Germany • US – Small business optimism likely declined; October could be worse • Market focus • There are no signs th...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 07-Oct – Asian central banks to maintain status quo - Updated Sun October 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Pakistan – PKR is under pressure due to declining FX reserves • India – SIGMA provides a mildly bullish signal for duration in October • Germany – PMIs suggest a healthy pick-up in factory orders • Market focus • BI and Bo...

  • Pakistan – SBP hikes policy rates by 50bps - Updated Mon September 16, 2013

    • SBP raises policy rates by 50bps at its 13 September meeting; timing surprises the market • Central bank highlights inflation’s sharp acceleration and the weak balance of payment position • SBP raises headline CPI projection for FY14 to 11-12%...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • Pakistan – FY14 budget to stimulate growth - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    • The PMLN government’s first budget targets 4.4% growth and a 35% increase in investment spending • The FY14 deficit target is 6.3% of GDP, down from 8.8% in FY13, on higher taxes and subsidy cuts • The budget is in line with IMF requirements for...

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