In August, our clients were sellers of USD versus KRW, CNY, INR; buyers of USD versus THB, IDR, PHP
• Our custodian clients were sellers of USD versus KRW; substantial buyers of USD versus THB and PHP
• Short USD positioning is now substantial ver...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
• This supersedes the version dated 20 June 2013. Changes Ghana FX weighting to Neutral.
• Three sources of vulnerability will add to short-term market volatility: the concentration of foreign holdings, correlation to UST and local-market liquidit...
Top 3 data/events
• Australia – Terms of trade expected to have fallen
• Taiwan – Export orders are likely to increase in absolute terms
• Germany – IFO indices may lose momentum
• WGBI inclusion is important, but overestimated;...
Top 3 data/events
• South Korea/Taiwan – Reversal in capital inflows to Taiwan and Korea in April
• India – WPI to print below 7% for a third month in succession
• United States – Inflation remains well-behaved
• Tight monetary po...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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