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  • SCTF – Positioning risks reduced in THB and MYR - Updated Fri September 13, 2013

    In August, our clients were sellers of USD versus KRW, CNY, INR; buyers of USD versus THB, IDR, PHP • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD versus KRW; substantial buyers of USD versus THB and PHP • Short USD positioning is now substantial ver...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...

  • Africa – Unequal vulnerability to US QE tapering [Correction] - Updated Fri June 21, 2013

    • This supersedes the version dated 20 June 2013. Changes Ghana FX weighting to Neutral. • Three sources of vulnerability will add to short-term market volatility: the concentration of foreign holdings, correlation to UST and local-market liquidit...

  • 19-Apr-12 – The market jumps the gun - Updated Wed April 18, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Terms of trade expected to have fallen • Taiwan – Export orders are likely to increase in absolute terms • Germany – IFO indices may lose momentum Market focus • WGBI inclusion is important, but overestimated;...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.