In August, our clients were sellers of USD versus KRW, CNY, INR; buyers of USD versus THB, IDR, PHP
• Our custodian clients were sellers of USD versus KRW; substantial buyers of USD versus THB and PHP
• Short USD positioning is now substantial ver...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
• This supersedes the version dated 20 June 2013. Changes Ghana FX weighting to Neutral.
• Three sources of vulnerability will add to short-term market volatility: the concentration of foreign holdings, correlation to UST and local-market liquidit...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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