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  • 29-Jan-13 – Implications of a weaker yen for Asia - Updated Mon January 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely consolidated in December after recent strength • Euro area – Survey data likely to indicate an improving trend • United States – Q4 economic expansion likely slowed, FOMC on hold • Market focus • JP...

  • United States – Housing is on the up again - Updated Thu January 17, 2013

    The housing market is recovering firmly on better fundamentals • Our optimistic outlook acknowledges various barriers to growth • Housing is likely to increase its contribution to GDP...

  • 17-Jan-13 – China’s recovery is taking shape - Updated Wed January 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Official concern about KRW volatility rather than level • Chile – BCCh on hold, but more constructive on growth • US – Philly Fed survey to show marginal improvement • Market focus • We forecast a rebound in C...

  • 15-Jan-13 – Latam to hold rates this week - Updated Mon January 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – A socially focused Policy Address • Japan – Economic data likely to suggest weak economic momentum • United States – December retail sales likely continued to bounce back • Market focus • BCB, Banxico, BCCh mee...

  • United States – The importance of participation - Updated Mon January 7, 2013

    The shift in Fed policy guidance augments the importance of unemployment and participation rates • The Fed’s 6.5% target for unemployment may be a soft target, conditional on ‘quality’ of job recovery • We revise down our year-end 2013 and 2014 u...

  • United States – Debt ceiling concerns to weigh on Q1 - Updated Wed January 2, 2013

    The fiscal cliff has been averted, but policy is tightening, which will keep growth modest • The end of the Social Security tax holiday means most Americans will see a drop in their take-home pay • This outcome is in line with our expectations, ...

  • United States – Bernanke is not afraid of commitment [CORRECTION ] - Updated Thu December 13, 2012

    • This supersedes the version dated 12 December 2012. On page 2, 2nd paragraph, corrects year-end USD-JPY forecast to 81.00 from 82.00. • The FOMC expands QE purchases to absorb the expiration of Operation Twist • Fed commits to keep rates on hol...

  • 12-Dec-12 – Central bank reserve monitor - Updated Tue December 11, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Overnight borrowing rate to stay on hold • EU – Summit to discuss banking union, approve Greek tranche • United States – November retail sales boosted by autos • Market focus • Reserve accumulation of our EM...

  • 11-Dec-12 – Top EM rates trades for 2013 - Updated Mon December 10, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – October IIP print likely to be the strongest so far in FY13 • Japan – Data releases likely to bring few surprises • United States – FOMC to end 2012 without a twist, but with a QE bang • Market focus • We remain b...

  • 07-Dec-12 – Rising hopes in China - Updated Thu December 6, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – October’s current account surplus likely to have shrunk • US – November payrolls likely to show subdued gains • FX – USD-AXJ to consolidate into year-end • Market focus • Growth continues to firm in China, market s...

  • 06-Dec-2012 – We expect a debt slope not a debt cliff - Updated Wed December 5, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Government wins the vote on FDI in multi-brand retail • Malaysia – October likely to have seen a consolidation • Taiwan – Exports likely to have risen on year-end holiday demand • Market focus • The fiscal slope is...

  • 03-Dec-12 – GolSecs to rally on RBI OMOs - Updated Sun December 2, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We expect the RBA to keep the policy rate on hold • Singapore – PMI likely stayed negative • US – ISM to improve but progress remains slow • Market focus • India’s Q2-FY13 GDP in line with consensus at 5.3%; gr...

  • UK/Canada – Carney: A pragmatic BoE helmsman - Updated Thu November 29, 2012

    • As governor of the Bank of England from July 2013, Mark Carney is likely to face ongoing challenges • UK rates look set to stay on hold long after the BoC starts to hike; we expect more QE will be needed • FX – Expected policy continuity at both...

  • 27-Nov-12 – Brazil’s COPOM: the last will be the first - Updated Mon November 26, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth should provide evidence of domestic resilience • Thailand – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold for now • US – Headline durable goods orders likely to edge lower, core not much better • Market fo...

  • 15-Nov-12– AXJ FX rally supports bond inflows - Updated Wed November 14, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Export outlook is likely to remain murky • Malaysia – GDP growth was likely supported by the services sector • US – Energy-price drop probably tempered inflation in October • Market focus • Foreign inflows to A...

  • 14-Nov-12 – TWD lowered to Neutral - Updated Tue November 13, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Q4 GDP is likely to be worse than in Q3 • UK – Retail sales likely to have deteriorated in October • US – Retail sales likely fell; FOMC minutes could shed light on QE • Market focus • We lower our short-term F...

  • 05-Nov-12 – The lucky currency - Updated Sun November 4, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – CPI inflation momentum was likely flat • Singapore – PMI likely improved but stayed in contractionary territory • United States – Strong sales imply better ISM non-manufacturing • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 02-Nov-12 – It’s the Electoral College that matters - Updated Thu November 1, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect a robust Q3 growth reading • Taiwan – CPI was likely above 2% for a fourth straight month • United States – The labour market still has a long way to go • Market focus • While polls show a tied pop...

  • 01-Nov-12 – The search for carry trades in EM - Updated Wed October 31, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Unemployment remains low • Uganda – Monetary policy easing to continue, with a 100bps rate cut expected • US – ISM set to improve, but progress remains slow • Market focus • QE3 continues to encourage foreign in...

  • 26-Oct-12 – NEA to outperform as China stabilises - Updated Thu October 25, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Retail sales growth is likely to have slowed • Latin America – Banxico to stay put, BanRep possibly preparing to cut • United States – Growth is looking better, but not inspiring • Market focus • We look for further...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.