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  • Turkey – AKP strengthens its hold - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    AKP makes a strong showing in local elections, garnering above 45% of the national vote • Erdogan may now announce his candidacy for the August presidential election • We think that risks from the political news cycle will remain, as the country’s...

  • 17-Mar – FOMC: Jettisoning the thresholds - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine • Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10% • Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March • Market focus • Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...

  • Turkey – Growth dynamic interrupted, not crushed - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    • Macro prudential measures and steep policy tightening will constrain real GDP growth • We do not envisage a recession scenario; fiscal expansion and exports will limit the downside risks • Politics remain uncertain and could stress markets again...

  • 17-Feb – Ironing out our AUD view - Updated Sun February 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes likely to show comfort about the recovery • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain its pace of asset purchases • Turkey – CBRT expected to stay on hold • Market focus • We have cut our iron ore forecasts on ...

  • CBRT makes an about-face - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    Event • In an emergency meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) made a very strong move, raising all of the interest rates in its complicated monetary policy framework. The upper band of the corridor (O/N lending rate) was raise...

  • 28 Jan – Meanwhile, the Fed tapers - Updated Mon January 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events Malaysia – BNM likely to keep rates on hold, remain cautious on growth • South Korea – IP likely rose modestly, despite the rail strike • Turkey – CBRT calls an emergency meeting Market focus • We do not think current market ...

  • 20-Jan – Turbulence in Turkey - Updated Sun January 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain stance at its first MPC meeting in 2014 • Australia – Inflation likely remained benign at +0.4% q/q in Q4-2013 • Germany – Upbeat ZEW investor confidence expected for H1-2014 • Market focus •...

  • Turkey – Vertigo - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    • Turkey is undergoing its worst political crisis since the AKP’s ascent to power • Compounding the existing ‘tapering’ stress, this has led to a substantial market sell-off • International perception of Turkey has been damaged; institutional inte...

  • Morocco – Waiting for Europe (to wake up) - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • Agriculture GDP is still the main cause of headline GDP growth volatility • Subsidy reform is a central policy objective, and work should continue in 2014 • We are constructive on Morocco’s medium- to long-term outlook...

  • Iraq – Operating environment is the key - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • The country’s hydrocarbon potential is massive and probably even higher than currently assessed • But the security situation represents a risk to the oil-capacity expansion timeline • Improving the operating environment should be a priori...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.