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  • Sub-Saharan Africa-Middle East – Stronger ties - Updated Thu May 21, 2015

    • Sub-Saharan Africa-Middle East trade is likely to increase from c.USD 35bn in 2014 • Agriculture and infrastructure are set to be key sectors of collaboration • African sovereigns will likely look increasingly to sukuk markets to help fund va...

  • Turkey election – Truth or dare - Updated Thu May 21, 2015

    June’s election could be pivotal for Turkey’s future; the outcome is dependent on Kurdish support • We see a binary outcome: either the AKP pragmatists win, or Erdogan does • Growth has been weakening but a market-friendly result could quickly cha...

  • 19-May – Fed still looking over the rainbow - Updated Mon May 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders likely declined; C/A surplus at record high • UK – We expect the BoE decision remained unanimous • Turkey – CBRT will most likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • Yellen’s speech on Friday is lik...

  • 21-Apr – CBRT – Monetary policy consternation - Updated Mon April 20, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q1 inflation was likely lower at 1.3% y/y • Singapore – Inflation likely decreased further in March • UK – BoE minutes likely to show unanimous rate decision in April • Market focus • We think the CBRT will leav...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • 16-Mar – BoJ will likely move in April not March - Updated Sun March 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - We expect modest NODX growth in January-February • Turkey – CBRT will likely keep rates unchanged • South Africa – C/A deficit to highlight ongoing vulnerability • Market focus • We expect no BoJ easing at the 16...

  • 12-Mar – TRY: The party’s over - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Switzerland – FX irony • Singapore – Retail sales likely remained sluggish in January • United States – Oil boost still not in the spending data • Market focus • Political interference in monetary policy has been in focus ...

  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...

  • Turkey – Blurred lines - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    • Political intervention in state institutions is reshaping Turkey • The most visible flashpoint is central bank independence, driving the TRY to historical lows • CBRT likely to continue to navigate between political pressures while monitoring ex...

  • 19-Jan – A cold December in China - Updated Sun January 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Growth concerns put downward pressure on rates • Nigeria – Monetary policy rate expected to stay on hold • Turkey – CBRT will most likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • Growth momentum remains weak in Chin...

  • Turkey – Same but different - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • GDP growth will likely accelerate on a more favourable external environment • Conservative fiscal policy remains the strongest credit support • Conflict in Syria could jeopardise the peace process with the Kurds ...

  • Tunisia – Transition (almost) complete - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth is ready to pick up but dim European growth outlook might be a constraint • Reform agenda is ambitious but essential • Tunisia has so far managed its democratic transition, which should boost investor confidence ...

  • Morocco – Hard work pays off - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Strong focus on non-agricultural GDP will likely be the main growth driver • Morocco has had success with bold fiscal consolidation initiatives • Inclusive growth to alleviate unemployment will be crucial ...

  • Lebanon – War economy - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • We see a very mild growth pick-up on a benign security scenario • Fiscal consolidation is becoming urgent • Fragile environment is undermining the political process ...

  • Iraq – Fighting back - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Despite turmoil Iraq should continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace • Fiscal policy is an increasingly important potential area of risk • Politics remains Iraq’s main vulnerability ...

  • Bahrain – 2015 will be about non-oil GDP - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Headline GDP growth should mostly come from the non-oil sector • Reforming fiscal policy is essential • Bahrain’s financial sector is undergoing a transformation ...

  • Algeria – Business environment deteriorates - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth is mainly driven by the hydrocarbon sector and government spending • Improving the restrictive business environment will be key • Capital markets are abnormally small relative to the country’s size ...

  • MENA – Navigating headwinds - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • We expect lower oil prices to directly impact the GCC’s growth outlook • Recent oil-price decline is a reminder that government expenditure cannot rise indefinitely • Energy-subsidy reform should become a priority given reduced fiscal heardroom...

  • Europe – Looking for a way out - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Lower oil prices should help to lift growth across most European countries • We expect further ECB easing, and delayed BoE tightening • Confidence in the region remains vulnerable to politics and geopolitics...

  • MENA – Navigating headwinds - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    We expect lower oil prices to directly impact the GCC’s growth outlook • Recent oil-price decline is a reminder that government expenditure cannot rise indefinitely • Energy-subsidy reform should become a priority given reduced fiscal heardroom...



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19-May – Fed still looking over the rainbow

Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders likely declined; C/A surplus at record high • UK – We expect the BoE decision remained unanimous • Turkey – CBRT will most likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • Yellen’s speech on Friday is likely to take precedence over the FOMC meeting...

In Media

Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.