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  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • 16-Mar – BoJ will likely move in April not March - Updated Sun March 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - We expect modest NODX growth in January-February • Turkey – CBRT will likely keep rates unchanged • South Africa – C/A deficit to highlight ongoing vulnerability • Market focus • We expect no BoJ easing at the 16...

  • 12-Mar – TRY: The party’s over - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Switzerland – FX irony • Singapore – Retail sales likely remained sluggish in January • United States – Oil boost still not in the spending data • Market focus • Political interference in monetary policy has been in focus ...

  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...

  • Turkey – Blurred lines - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    • Political intervention in state institutions is reshaping Turkey • The most visible flashpoint is central bank independence, driving the TRY to historical lows • CBRT likely to continue to navigate between political pressures while monitoring ex...

  • 19-Jan – A cold December in China - Updated Sun January 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Growth concerns put downward pressure on rates • Nigeria – Monetary policy rate expected to stay on hold • Turkey – CBRT will most likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • Growth momentum remains weak in Chin...

  • Turkey – Same but different - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • GDP growth will likely accelerate on a more favourable external environment • Conservative fiscal policy remains the strongest credit support • Conflict in Syria could jeopardise the peace process with the Kurds ...

  • Tunisia – Transition (almost) complete - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth is ready to pick up but dim European growth outlook might be a constraint • Reform agenda is ambitious but essential • Tunisia has so far managed its democratic transition, which should boost investor confidence ...

  • Morocco – Hard work pays off - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Strong focus on non-agricultural GDP will likely be the main growth driver • Morocco has had success with bold fiscal consolidation initiatives • Inclusive growth to alleviate unemployment will be crucial ...

  • Lebanon – War economy - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • We see a very mild growth pick-up on a benign security scenario • Fiscal consolidation is becoming urgent • Fragile environment is undermining the political process ...



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