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  • 17-Mar – FOMC: Jettisoning the thresholds - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine • Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10% • Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March • Market focus • Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...

  • Turkey – Growth dynamic interrupted, not crushed - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    • Macro prudential measures and steep policy tightening will constrain real GDP growth • We do not envisage a recession scenario; fiscal expansion and exports will limit the downside risks • Politics remain uncertain and could stress markets again...

  • 17-Feb – Ironing out our AUD view - Updated Sun February 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes likely to show comfort about the recovery • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain its pace of asset purchases • Turkey – CBRT expected to stay on hold • Market focus • We have cut our iron ore forecasts on ...

  • 28 Jan – Meanwhile, the Fed tapers - Updated Mon January 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events Malaysia – BNM likely to keep rates on hold, remain cautious on growth • South Korea – IP likely rose modestly, despite the rail strike • Turkey – CBRT calls an emergency meeting Market focus • We do not think current market ...

  • 20-Jan – Turbulence in Turkey - Updated Sun January 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain stance at its first MPC meeting in 2014 • Australia – Inflation likely remained benign at +0.4% q/q in Q4-2013 • Germany – Upbeat ZEW investor confidence expected for H1-2014 • Market focus •...

  • Turkey – Vertigo - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    • Turkey is undergoing its worst political crisis since the AKP’s ascent to power • Compounding the existing ‘tapering’ stress, this has led to a substantial market sell-off • International perception of Turkey has been damaged; institutional inte...

  • Morocco – Waiting for Europe (to wake up) - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • Agriculture GDP is still the main cause of headline GDP growth volatility • Subsidy reform is a central policy objective, and work should continue in 2014 • We are constructive on Morocco’s medium- to long-term outlook...

  • Iraq – Operating environment is the key - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • The country’s hydrocarbon potential is massive and probably even higher than currently assessed • But the security situation represents a risk to the oil-capacity expansion timeline • Improving the operating environment should be a priori...

  • Turkey – Please Janet, don’t! - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • Turkey’s growth has not decoupled from external imbalances • We see a marginal improvement to 4% real GDP growth in 2014 • Any upside potential will be capped by tightening policy over the course of the year...

  • Tunisia – Transitioning, Part two - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • Political transition success remains the key to higher GDP growth • 2014 should bring some resolution to this process • Official creditors and the international community should remain supportive...

  • Lebanon – Waiting for better days - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • GDP drivers are still going to be affected by a tense regional situation • Reform of the subsidy system, particularly in the energy sector, is crucial • Lebanon’ financial system remains the backbone of the economy...

  • Bahrain – Holding on to oil - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • 2014 growth should mildly suffer from a high base effect • The economy’s dependence on the hydrocarbon economy has increased • Long-term resolution of the domestic feuds is key to the non-oil economy ...

  • Algeria – Awaiting reforms - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • Growth should benefit from a return to full hydrocarbon potential in 2014 • But given its wealth and GDP/capita, Algeria is arguably underperforming • Political agenda will be driven by presidential election and the possible return of Bouteflika...

  • 18-Nov – The Plenum delivered! - Updated Sun November 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes to reflect its cautious view • Turkey – CBRT set to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.5% • Ghana – Pace of fiscal consolidation will be closely watched • Market focus • China rolls out biggest econo...

  • 22-Oct – Little inflation pressure in Asia - Updated Mon October 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Turkey – No change expected from the monetary policy committee • UK – BoE minutes likely to advocate caution • United States – September payroll data does not capture the shutdown • Market focus • We see limited inflation ...

  • Lebanon – Don’t bank on tourism - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The summer tourism season was even worse than expected • But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy • Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds ...

  • Iraq – Security situation worsens - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment • The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months • Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now ...

  • Bahrain – Oil is the focus - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics • Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again • Refinery output capacity should rise by 38% ...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Turkey – Monetary policy U-turn confirmed - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    After August’s MPC meeting the CBRT made a policy U-turn; this was confirmed at the September meeting • The central bank will focus on ‘interest rate stability’ and let the TRY fluctuate • Investors continue to worry about widening deficits, CPI a...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.