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  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • 12-Mar – TRY: The party’s over - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Switzerland – FX irony • Singapore – Retail sales likely remained sluggish in January • United States – Oil boost still not in the spending data • Market focus • Political interference in monetary policy has been in focus ...

  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...

  • 24-Sep – ECB struggling to gain traction - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – CBC likely to keep policy rate unchanged at 1.875% • Turkey – CBRT expected to keep rates unchanged • United States – Cleveland Fed’s Mester may have a hawkish tone • Market focus • Weak take-up of the TLTRO raises...

  • 17-Jul – Thailand on a better trajectory - Updated Wed July 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Turkey – CBRT expected to cut, reluctantly • Euro area – CPI likely stayed at 0.5% • US – Housing starts likely dropped for a second consecutive month • Market focus • Economic sentiment has improved following the military ...

  • 22-Oct – Little inflation pressure in Asia - Updated Mon October 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Turkey – No change expected from the monetary policy committee • UK – BoE minutes likely to advocate caution • United States – September payroll data does not capture the shutdown • Market focus • We see limited inflation ...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

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