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  • SDR: One small step for China, one giant leap for CNY - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Thursday 21 May 2015 16:00 SG/HK (8:00 GMT) • Becky Liu, Senior rates Strategist • Eddie Cheung, Asia FX Strategist • Callum Henderson, Head, FX Research Topi...

  • CLP – We move to Overweight from Neutral - Updated Fri May 1, 2015

    We are bullish on copper prices, forecasting USD 6,675/t in Q4-2015 and 7,250/t in 2016 • Standard Chartered MFCI for Chile points to higher growth, suggesting BCCh will hike from Q4 • We revise our short-term FX weighting on the CLP to Overweigh...

  • EM-21: Rising FX reserves and a rising USD [Correction] - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment. Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...

  • ZAR – Near-term concerns, medium-term value - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    USD-ZAR likely to see further upside in Q2; we raise our 2015 FX forecasts, still anticipating a Q2 peak • In line with our new FX forecasts, we downgrade our short-term FX weighting on the ZAR to Neutral • We upgrade our medium-term ZAR FX weigh...

  • The solitude of Latin America - Updated Wed March 18, 2015

    Latam currencies remain vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a renewed UST sell-off • Faced with high inflation, Latam central banks have generally not participated in this year’s easing round • We raise our USD-Latam FX forecasts and reduce o...

  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • CHF – Careful what you wish for - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    We believe the SNB has succeeded in making the CHF unattractive after the scrapping of EUR-CHF floor • Despite recent CHF losses, the FX market in our view has yet to price in the likely Swiss recession in H1 • We revise our Swiss economic and FX ...

  • CNY – The real story on CNY weakness - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    China’s FX market has re-opened amid sustained onshore corporate demand for FX • The financial account has deteriorated abruptly, due mainly to trimming or hedging of FX liabilities • We examine onshore corporate flows and identify a powerful shif...

  • FXTP update: Adjust stop higher on long USD-CAD - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    The stabilisation in WTI oil prices represents a potential risk to our long USD-CAD trade • Stabilisation is not the same as an oil-price recovery; Canada is still affected by a terms-of-trade shock • We reaffirm our long USD-CAD trade, but raise ...

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