This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment.
Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February
Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...
The USD has experienced a healthy correction on positioning and over-reaction to the FOMC
• A careful assessment of Fed comments on the USD shows they are relatively balanced
• The fundamental drivers of USD strength remain in place, while valuati...
USD-ZAR likely to see further upside in Q2; we raise our 2015 FX forecasts, still anticipating a Q2 peak
• In line with our new FX forecasts, we downgrade our short-term FX weighting on the ZAR to Neutral
• We upgrade our medium-term ZAR FX weigh...
Latam currencies remain vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a renewed UST sell-off
• Faced with high inflation, Latam central banks have generally not participated in this year’s easing round
• We raise our USD-Latam FX forecasts and reduce o...
Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call
• USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility
• We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...
We believe the SNB has succeeded in making the CHF unattractive after the scrapping of EUR-CHF floor
• Despite recent CHF losses, the FX market in our view has yet to price in the likely Swiss recession in H1
• We revise our Swiss economic and FX ...
China’s FX market has re-opened amid sustained onshore corporate demand for FX
• The financial account has deteriorated abruptly, due mainly to trimming or hedging of FX liabilities
• We examine onshore corporate flows and identify a powerful shif...
The stabilisation in WTI oil prices represents a potential risk to our long USD-CAD trade
• Stabilisation is not the same as an oil-price recovery; Canada is still affected by a terms-of-trade shock
• We reaffirm our long USD-CAD trade, but raise ...
RBI Governor Rajan has downplayed arguments that high REERs leave INR ‘grossly uncompetitive’
• RBI REERs remain on an upward trajectory, but historic averages offer little insight into INR fair value
• Policy focus on REERs is a big improvement o...
We recommend taking profit on the long USD-SGD trade
• We remain fundamentally bearish on the SGD and will look to re-enter the trade at better levels
• We maintain a short- and medium-term Underweight FX weighting on the SGD...
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