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  • KRW – Underpinned by ‘under-conversion’ - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Korea’s substantial current account surpluses have been fully recycled by capital account deficits • Under-conversion of overseas FX receivables may be a source of KRW demand going forward • Growth-inflation mix is broadly neutral for USD-KRW, b...

  • JPY – A gathering storm - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • We highlight increasing downside risks to USD-JPY in the near term; expect a pick-up in JPY volatility • The Bank of Japan appears comfortably sidelined for now even as domestic data hits a soft patch • We revise our short-term USD-JPY forecas...

  • COP – A strong house in a high-beta neighbourhood - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Colombia’s strong local growth story and robust capital-inflow outlook underpins our bullish COP view • We revise our end-Q2 USD-COP forecast to 1,900 (from 1,930) and keep end-Q3 at 1,870 • We stay Overweight the COP against the USD over both sho...

  • Close short THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Broad USD weakness, technicals and positioning could support the THB further near-term • Real-money funds are underweight Thai local markets; as they cover their shorts, THB could rally further • Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to...

  • Buy AUD-NZD - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    • AUD-NZD looks set for a sharp corrective rebound as shifting terms of trade catch the market long NZD • Most NZD good news is priced in; AUD shorts are vulnerable to the improving Australian trade balance • We recommend buying AUD-NZD via 3M f...

  • PKR rallies on aid inflows, but no change in FX policy - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • USD-PKR has rallied 10% to 99 since end-2013 on FX aid flows, improving sentiment • However, fundamentals are weak - the trade deficit is widening, FX reserves are below comfort levels • Short-term gains to persist; we forecast PKR at 98 by Ju...

  • PBoC delivers a decisive band widening - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    PBoC doubles width of USD-CNY onshore trading band to +/-2% in a decisive step to boost FX volatility Mild CNY appreciation is still likely medium-term, but the ‘one-way’ CNY trajectory is over Leveraged funds: We still like long 1Y ATMF USD-CN...

  • Aussie resilience in the face of the CNY slide - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    AUD has remained surprisingly resilient despite the slide in CNY/CNH; we see three reasons for this • AUD is more sensitive than CNY to China data surprises, while domestic factors turned more supportive • Leveraged funds remain substantially shor...

  • MXN – Don’t beat a dead piñata - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Enthusiasm for reform leaves scope for disappointment, especially with bond positioning crowded • The external environment is changing and the MXN is vulnerable to more US data misses • Leveraged funds: We recommend buying 3M USD-MXN call spreads ...

  • CNY – Two-way volatility now, band widening later - Updated Tue February 25, 2014

    The Chinese authorities are finally delivering on two-way variability in USD-CNY and USD-CNH • This is aimed at changing CNY/CNH investment characteristics rather than signalling a new CNY trend • We see two-way USD-CNY volatility, fix/spot conve...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.