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  • KRW – Underpinned by ‘under-conversion’ - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Korea’s substantial current account surpluses have been fully recycled by capital account deficits • Under-conversion of overseas FX receivables may be a source of KRW demand going forward • Growth-inflation mix is broadly neutral for USD-KRW, b...

  • JPY – A gathering storm - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • We highlight increasing downside risks to USD-JPY in the near term; expect a pick-up in JPY volatility • The Bank of Japan appears comfortably sidelined for now even as domestic data hits a soft patch • We revise our short-term USD-JPY forecas...

  • COP – A strong house in a high-beta neighbourhood - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Colombia’s strong local growth story and robust capital-inflow outlook underpins our bullish COP view • We revise our end-Q2 USD-COP forecast to 1,900 (from 1,930) and keep end-Q3 at 1,870 • We stay Overweight the COP against the USD over both sho...

  • Close short THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Broad USD weakness, technicals and positioning could support the THB further near-term • Real-money funds are underweight Thai local markets; as they cover their shorts, THB could rally further • Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to...

  • Buy AUD-NZD - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    • AUD-NZD looks set for a sharp corrective rebound as shifting terms of trade catch the market long NZD • Most NZD good news is priced in; AUD shorts are vulnerable to the improving Australian trade balance • We recommend buying AUD-NZD via 3M f...

  • PKR rallies on aid inflows, but no change in FX policy - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • USD-PKR has rallied 10% to 99 since end-2013 on FX aid flows, improving sentiment • However, fundamentals are weak - the trade deficit is widening, FX reserves are below comfort levels • Short-term gains to persist; we forecast PKR at 98 by Ju...

  • PBoC delivers a decisive band widening - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    PBoC doubles width of USD-CNY onshore trading band to +/-2% in a decisive step to boost FX volatility Mild CNY appreciation is still likely medium-term, but the ‘one-way’ CNY trajectory is over Leveraged funds: We still like long 1Y ATMF USD-CN...

  • Aussie resilience in the face of the CNY slide - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    AUD has remained surprisingly resilient despite the slide in CNY/CNH; we see three reasons for this • AUD is more sensitive than CNY to China data surprises, while domestic factors turned more supportive • Leveraged funds remain substantially shor...

  • MXN – Don’t beat a dead piñata - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Enthusiasm for reform leaves scope for disappointment, especially with bond positioning crowded • The external environment is changing and the MXN is vulnerable to more US data misses • Leveraged funds: We recommend buying 3M USD-MXN call spreads ...

  • CNY – Two-way volatility now, band widening later - Updated Tue February 25, 2014

    The Chinese authorities are finally delivering on two-way variability in USD-CNY and USD-CNH • This is aimed at changing CNY/CNH investment characteristics rather than signalling a new CNY trend • We see two-way USD-CNY volatility, fix/spot conve...

  • Sell GBP-CAD - Updated Tue February 25, 2014

    Our SC IMM positioning model is showing a ‘Sell’ signal for GBP-CAD, pointing to a downside correction • Canada’s fundamentals have improved; short-term factors are supporting the GBP, despite weaker data • We are adding GBP-CAD shorts to the Stan...

  • CAD – Turning more cautious for now - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    We think the deterioration in the Canadian economy is now ‘in the price’ for USD-CAD, at least for now • Canada’s macro backdrop has improved somewhat, while economic data from the US has softened • We expect this to be a temporary USD-CAD correct...

  • Sell SGD-TWD via 3M NDFs - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    We expect TWD underperformance to reverse on better China data and more stable capital flows • TWD has so far lagged the KRW rebound, in the context of the USD pullback, but we look for catch-up • We recommend selling SGD-TWD, looking for this cro...

  • Sell THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    We forecast USD-THB at 34.00 at end-Q2 on slowing growth, political deadlock • Technicals are turning bullish for USD-THB again; our SCTF data indicates light positioning in USD-THB • THB-US 10Y spread has fallen which according to our PCA analysi...

  • FX volatility – Identifying patterns in slopes (1) - Updated Fri February 14, 2014

    • We investigate volatility slopes for EUR-USD, GBP-USD, EUR-JPY and USD-JPY • We find similar statistical profiles and mean-reverting properties across currency pairs • We find that on average the volatility slopes considered for these pairs mean...

  • AUD – Comfortably high, for now - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    We revise our short-term AUD-USD forecasts higher on better data, a change in RBA stance, positioning • We expect AUD-USD to remain range-bound in H2 with offsetting factors in play • Leveraged funds: We recommend buying 1M AUD-USD call versus se...

  • Sell USD-CNY via 12M NDFs - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    Market turmoil has underpinned the USD and the upward slope in USD-CNY NDFs • The USD-CNY 12M outright in the NDFs is some way above the USD in the 12M deliverable forwards • We expect CNY appreciation to be extended in 2014; there may be scope f...

  • Now or never for the EUR-USD bears - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    Time may be running short for EUR-USD to fall as underlying fundamentals grow increasingly balanced • We remain committed USD bulls, however, so we still expect a EUR-USD move lower in H1 • Leveraged funds: We recommend buying 3M 25/10-delta EUR-U...

  • CNY – Delivering on two-way volatility - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    CNY and CNH start 2014 on a firm note amid favourable seasonals and persistent onshore net USD sales • Q2 will likely bring a widening of the onshore trading band and more two-way volatility • We revise down our USD-CNY and USD-CNH forecasts out ...

  • SGD-MYR to fall on growth, rate spreads, valuations - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    Malaysia’s exports and trade balance have turned a corner; Singapore’s manufacturing PMI is faltering • SGD NEER is in the strong half of band; MYR-USD rates spread should provide some support for MYR • Bond investors should raise FX hedge ratios ...



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