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  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • 17-Mar – FOMC: Jettisoning the thresholds - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine • Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10% • Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March • Market focus • Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...

  • 07-Mar – China, commodities and currencies - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Trade deficit to stay in single digits • Japan – C/A was likely in deficit again in January • US – February’s job report to show a hiring slowdown amid bad weather • Market focus • China’s February trade data to so...

  • 17-Feb – Ironing out our AUD view - Updated Sun February 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes likely to show comfort about the recovery • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain its pace of asset purchases • Turkey – CBRT expected to stay on hold • Market focus • We have cut our iron ore forecasts on ...

  • Iraq – Security situation worsens - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment • The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months • Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now ...

  • Bahrain – Oil is the focus - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics • Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again • Refinery output capacity should rise by 38% ...

  • Nigeria – Economic implications of PDP’s split - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Political developments in Nigeria increase near-term uncertainty • With politics taking centre-stage earlier than expected, there are upside risks to outlined spending plans • Any threat to the PDP’s majority in the National Assembly could poten...

  • Angola – Diversification in focus - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Angola remains oil dependant but non-oil sector now represents more than half of GDP • Infrastructure bottlenecks and lack of skilled labour are key constraints for non-oil growth • Greater diversification is necessary to preserve social stabil...

  • Senegal – In search of lost growth - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • A new cabinet to provide fresh impetus to government action • Progress on living standards has been disappointing • Many structural issues need to be addressed to achieve higher growth...

  • Kenya – Above-trend growth still in sight - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Despite a likely setback to tourism, we expect Kenya’s economy to be largely resilient • Even given weaker-than-expected headline GDP in Q2, many other sectors outperformed • Fiscal revenue in Q1-FY14 was above the budget target • Higher headli...

  • Côte d’Ivoire – Conversion versus cancellation - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Growth has picked up, but remains lower than in many SSA countries • The fiscal outlook is deteriorating due to the weight of fuel subsidies • The national refinery suffers from government arrears...

  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • Cameroon – Higher growth, wider deficit - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Growth has picked up, but remains lower than in many SSA countries • The fiscal outlook is deteriorating due to the weight of fuel subsidies • The national refinery suffers from government arrears...

  • South Africa – Risk of a rate cut recedes - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • We lower our 2013 South Africa growth forecast to 2%, amid signs of a slowdown in consumption • Despite a wider negative output gap, we see receding risks of a further rate cut in this cycle • The SARB will be constrained by deteriorating inflat...

  • Ghana – The long road to fiscal consolidation - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Slower H1 GDP suggests that last year’s public-sector wage hikes did not have a lasting impact on growth • Utility and fuel price adjustments are encouraging, but a large debt service burden and weak budget flexibility will curb pro-growth spendi...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • 20-Sep – Risk on! - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Higher transport inflation risks in the coming months • Gold – Prices surge as the Fed delays QE tapering • Euro area – PMIs to reinforce that sentiment is still in recovery mode • Market focus • We think the EM...



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Trade idea

16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical concerns have lifted food prices • Inventories...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.